Post on 17-Jan-2020
Q3 2019PHNOM PENH MARKET UPDATE
11th
October 2019
Rosewood Hotel, Phnom Penh
CONTENTS
1
2
3
Country Overview
The Future of Retail
2
Retail Market
C O U N T R Y
O V E R V I E W
Emerging Economy
01
3
4 Q3 2019 Market Update
Cambodia Populat ion Growth
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1962 1980 1994 1996 1998 2004 2008 2013 2019
Millions
CAMBODIA POPULATION Y-O-Y
AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
1.2%
LAOS PDR
1.5%
VIETNAM
1%
THAILAND
0.5%
Source: General Population Census of the Kingdom of Cambodia 2019
5 Q3 2019 Market Update
Cambodia GDP Growth
Source: World Bank, 2019
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percenta
ge (%
)
Cambodia Thailand Vietnam
AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AT 7.2% OVER
THE COURSE OF THE LAST 8 YEARS
CAMBODIA
7.2%
THAILAND
3.3%
VIETNAM
6.2%
6 Q3 2019 Market Update
Cambodia Tourism Growth
Source: Ministry of Tourism, 2018
2%
16%
15%
24%
17%
7%6%
5%
12%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Thousands
Cambodia Growth Rate (%)
NATURAL
RESOURCES
RICH
CULTURE
INVESTOR
MAGNET
AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AT 13% OVER
THE COURSE OF THE LAST 9 YEARS
7 Q3 2019 Market Update
Cambodia Populat ion
URBAN HOUSEHOLDS MAKE UP
22%
Source: Euromonitor International, CEIC
YOUNG POPULATION
60% ARE 30 YEARS OLD & BELOW
USERS
2017
4.8mil
2018
6.8mil
8 Q3 2019 Market Update
Cambodia Retai l Sales
Source: Euromonitor International, Oxford Economics
DISPOSABLE INCOME (REAL)
CAGR OF 7.2% FROM 2018 TO 2023
RISE OF MIDDLE-INCOME & UPPER-MIDDLE-INCOME
TO FUEL RETAIL CONSUMPTION
TRADITIONAL RETAILING PREDOMINANT
99.5% STORE-BASED
9
R E TA I L
M A R K E T
Emerging Retail Market
02
10 Q3 2019 Market Update
Phnom Penh Exis t ing Retai l Supply
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3
2019
Net Leasable
A
rea (SQ
M)
Shopping Mall Shopping Centre
Community Mall Retail Podium
Source: CBRE Cambodia, Q3 2019
THE OLYMPIA MALL
THE NEWEST SHOPPING MALL
TO JOIN THE MARKET IN
Q2
15,000SQM
CIRCA 300,000SQM OF
RETAIL NLA SUPPLY AS OF
Q3 2019
11 Q3 2019 Market Updates
Phnom Penh Future Retai l Supply
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Net Leasable
A
rea (SQ
M)
Shopping Mall Shopping Centre
Community Mall Retail Podium
Source: CBRE Cambodia, Q3 2019
SHOPPING MALL
REMAINS THE TREND
496,857 SQM
BY 2024
RETAIL PODIUM PICKS UP THE
SPEED DUE TO THE TREND OF
MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT
143,956 SQM
BY 2024
12 Q3 2019 Market Updates
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
Phnom Penh Retai l Vacancy Rate
Source: CBRE Cambodia, Q3 2019
VACANCY RATE REMAINS AT
10% LOW SINCE 2018
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO
THE VACANCY RATE IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
UPCOMING STOCK?
9.74%
AS OF Q3 2019
?
13 Q3 2019 Market Updates
$30.5$28.5
$23.7
$26.5
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
Prime
Shopping Mall
Prime Retail
Podium
Community
Mall
Prime High
Street
Source: CBRE Cambodia, Q3 2019
Phnom Penh Retai l Rental Rate
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO
THE RENTAL RATE IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
UPCOMING STOCK
STABLE RENTSAS OF Q3 2019
?
14
T H E F U T U R E
O F R E TA I L ?
03
Q3 2019 Market Updates
AUGMENTED
REALITYVIRTUAL REALITYINTERNET
OF THINGS
3D PRINTING
LOGISTICS
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
AUTOMATION
PREDICTIVE
ANALYTICS
ROBOTICSBLOCKCHAIN
15
Technology: f r iend or foe?
16 Q3 2019 Market Updates
Customization to
become the new
loyalty
The sharing economy
to be a commonplace
Physical point of
transaction will
shrink
What, where and
how you want is
the norm
Technology: f r iend or foe?
17 Q3 2019 Market Updates
Focus on customer
emotions &
experience
The power of
prediction
Building brand
ambassadors and
product experts
Focus on robotics
and automation
Technology: f r iend or foe?
18 Q3 2019 Market Updates
Reimagining RETAIL
The focus will shift from store
to experience, with in-store
devices used to inspire customers
In-store warehousing may shrink with
smart inventory
management
19
T H A N K YO U
Q3 2019PHNOM PENH MARKET UPDATE
11th
October 2019
Rosewood Hotel, Phnom Penh
CONTENTS
1
2
3
4
5
OVERVIEW
CONDOMINIUM
OFFICE
LANDED RESIDENTIAL
RETAIL
22 Q3 2019 Market Update
Q3 2019 PROJECTION
INVESTMENT VALUE
PROJECTED TO REACH $2.3B
$4.5 Billion OF INVESTMENT VALUE
FROM JAN – JULY 2019
APPROX. 2,956 PROJECTS
ESTIMATED OVER THE
FIRST 3 QUARTERS OF 2019
2,477 PROJECTS APPROVED
FROM JAN – JULY 2019
INVESTMENT INTO CONSTRUCTION
Source: Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q4
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q3
E
No.
of Pro
ject
s
Million U
SD
Construction Investment Value No. of Projects
23 Q3 2019 Market Update
24 Q3 2019 Market Update
Applicable
Applicable
Highly Applicable
Applicable in some corridors
Applicable
Tramway
Linear Metro
Monorail
LRT
AGT
APPLICABILITY STUDY
AGT IS HIGHLY APPLICABLE
AUTOMATED GUIDEWAY TRANSIT - AGT
25 Q3 2019 Market Update
Depot Spurline:
4.8km
Airport Spurline: 2.6km
Corridor 4: 10.5km
Corridor 1: 9.6km
Corridor 2: 11.8km
CORRIDOR 3 BEING PRIORITISED
Length: 19 km
Type: AGT
Study Status: Completed in Feb-2019
Stations: 20 (2 underground stations)
Construction: 2020
Duration: 36 months
Expected Completion: 2023
Value: USD1,843 million
Study by: JICA
Awaiting Government Approval
AUTOMATED GUIDEWAY TRANSIT - AGT
26 Q3 2019 Market Update
APART FROM THE Q - O - Q TRENDS
27 Q3 2019 Market Update
WHAT HAS BEEN DONE/PLANNED ?
28 Q3 2019 Market Update
WHAT HAS BEEN DONE/PLANNED ?
• T H E P R E M I E R O R D E R E D T H E C R E A T I O N O F A C O M M I T T E E F O R T H E I N S P E C T I O N O F Q U A L I T Y I N B U I L D I N G S
• A P P R O X I M A T E L Y 3 0 0 C O N S T R U C T I O N P R O J E C T S H A V E B E E N R E V I E W E D
• C O N S T R U C T I O N B I L L P A S S E D
Q3 2019 Market Update29
CONDOMINIUM MARKET UPDATE
2
SUPPLY GROWTH
5.1% GROWTH Q-O-Q
45.30% GROWTH
2018 Q3 – 2019 Q3
22%
54%
24%
Affordable Mid-Range High-End
30 Q3 2019 Market Update
CONDOMINIUM DASHBOARD | Q3 2019
CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY NEW LAUNCHES COMPLETIONS
17,500
UNITS
9 NEW LAUNCHES
OVER 5,130 UNITS
INTRODUCED TO THE MARKET
OVER THE COURSE OF Q3
2019
1 COMPLETION
EQUIVALENT TO 850 UNITS
COMPLETED OVER THE
COURSE OF Q3 2019
+
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F
Affordable Mid-Range High-End % Change
17,500UNITS
1 PROJECT
Q3 COMPLETIONS
(850 UNITS)
SUPPLY
INCREASE Q-O-Q5.1%
CURRENT SUPPLY
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY Q3 2019
13 Q3 2019 Market Update
KEY NEW CONDOMINIUM LAUNCHES» Q3 2019 «
M RESIDENCE AGILE SKY RESIDENCE MORGAN ENMAISON HUANGSHAN INTERNATIONAL
MORE THAN 5,100 UNITS LAUNCHEDOVER THE COURSE OF Q3 2019
KEY NEW CONDOMINIUM LAUNCHES» Q3 2019 «
LA COZII TK
MORE THAN 5,100 UNITS LAUNCHEDOVER THE COURSE OF Q3 2019
WEALTH MANSIONTIME SQUARE 3 CITYGEM CONDO
$1,250
$1,750
$2,250
$2,750
$3,250
$3,750
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Affordable Mid-Range High-End
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
Q-O-Q FOR HIGH-END
SEGMENT1.9%
Q-O-Q CHANGES
2%
$1,531 $2,600 $3,190
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQM BY SEGMENT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
Q-O-Q FOR AFFORDABLE
SEGMENT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
Q-O-Q FOR MID-RANGE
SEGMENT1.2%
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
CONDOMINIUM SALE PR ICES
16 Q3 2019 Market Update
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
3BR 2BR 1BR Studio
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR
Rental Range Per Month (High-End)
Average Rent Per Sqm
High-End Mid-Range
Rental Range Per Month (Mid-Range)
FOR HIGH-END SEGMENT
FOR MID-RANGE SEGMENT
14.61/SQM
12.0/SQM
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
RENTS BROADLY STABLE OVER THE COURSE OF Q3 2019
CONDOMINIUM RENTS
17 Q3 2019 Market Update
Q3 2019 Market Update36
LANDED RESIDENTIAL (BOREY) MARKET UPDATE
2
37 Q3 2019 Market Update
SEN SOK DISTRICT REMAINS THE TOP ATTRACTION FOR LANDED PROPERTY DEVELOPERS
0
10
20
30
40
50
Sen Sok Russey Keo Chbar Ampov Por Sen Chey Dangkor Mean Chey Chroy
Changvar
Chamkarmon Prek Pnov Daun Penh 7 Makara Toul Kork
Num
ber
of
Pro
jects
Existing Future
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
LANDED RES IDENTIAL , aka. BOREY
38 Q3 2019 Market Update
3%
9%
9%
11%
19%23%
26%
Sen Sok Russey Keo Mean Chey
Chroy Changvar Chbar Ampov Dangkor
Por Sen Chey
AVERAGE VALUE AND VALUE INCREASE BY HOUSE TYPE PHNOM PENH FUTURE BOREY SUPPLY
$101 $124
$217$266
$872
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Flat Linkhouse Shophouse Twin Villa Villa*Thousand US$
Price Range Average Price
1%
2%7%14%
10%
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
BOREY FUTURE SUPPLY & SALE PR ICES
Q3 2019 Market Update39
OFFICEMARKET UPDATE
3
SQM (NLA)50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,0002
00
8
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
F
20
20
F
Grade C Grade B Grade A Occupancy Rate
OCCUPANCY RATE
BY Q3 201985.58%
GRADE-C OFFICE SUPPLY
SAW AN INCREASE OF 2%
OF CENTRALLY OWNED OFFICE
SPACE BY Q3 2019
364,600 SQM
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
NEW CENTRALLY OWNED
PROJECTS ADDED TO THE
FUTURE STOCK EQUIVALENT
TO CIRCA 15,000SQM OF NLA.
3
CENTRALLY- OWNED OFFICE SUPPLY
22 Q3 2019 Market Update
CBRE Cambodia 22 Q3 2019 Market Update
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2029
Grade-B (CBD) Grade-B (NCBD) Grade-C (CBD) Grade-C (NCBD)
1%LESS THAN
0.73%
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
CENTRALLY- OWNED OFFICE RENTS
42 Q3 2019 Market Update
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
20
18
20
19
F
20
20
F
20
21
F
20
22
F
Grade B Grade A
SQM (NLA)
CURRENT STRATA-TITLE SUPPLY59,678 SQM
NEW ANNOUNCEMENT
TIME SQUARE III
16,200 SQM
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
STRATA-T ITLE OFFICE SUPPLY
43 Q3 2019 Market Update
3
6
4
5
8
9
11
2
1. CHIEF TOWER
2. DOWNTOWN 93
3. ONE PARK
4. TK CENTRAL
5. FORTUNE TOWER
6. C5 OLYMPIA CITY
7. MARITIME TOWER
8. SOMA GROUP HQ
9. CHIP MONG BAK TOUK
10. THE GATEWAY
11. THE COMMUNE
12. THE POINT
13. VERSAILLES SQUARE
14. TIME SQUARE 3
9
10
Strata-title
12
1
713
CENTRALLY OWNED STRATA TITLE
14
MAP OF FUTURE OFFICE SUPPLY
Q3 2019 Market Update44
RETAILMARKET UPDATE
4
5 NEW RETAIL PROJECTS ANNOUNCEDOVER THE COURSE OF Q3 2019
5 MORE RETAIL PROJECTS SET TO COMPLETE BY YEAR END 2019
46 Q3 2019 Market Update
THE POINT
SOVANNA SHOPPING CENTERTEMPORARILY CLOSED0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F
Shopping Mall Shopping Center Community Mall Retail Podium
NOW OPEN!!DECREASE IN TOTAL SUPPLY16.9%
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
RETAIL SUPPLY
47 Q3 2019 Market Update
$30.5$28.5
$24.5$26.5
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
Prime Shopping Mall Prime Retail Podium Community Mall Prime High Street
3.3%
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
* Prime quoted rents for ground and 1st floor space
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
RENTS BROADLY
STABLE ACROSS THREE
RETAIL FORMATS
COMMUNITY MALL RENTS
SAW AN UPLIFT OF 3.3%
Q-O-Q, UP FROM $23.7/SQM
IN Q2 2019
RETAIL RENTS
48 Q3 2019 Market Update
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
OF VACANCY RATE
1.86%
CURRENT
VACANCY RATE
9.7%
RETAIL VACANCY RATE
© 2019 Advantage Property Services Co., Ltd, trading as CBRE Cambodia, part of the CBRE affiliate network. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, includingprojections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independentlyassessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offerto sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior expresswritten permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
Q3 2019 Market Updates
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T H A N K Y O U !
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