1ra. Jornada técnica de
GENERACIÓN SOLAR TERMOELÉCTRICA
GESTE 2010
Estado actual y perspectivas de futuro
Leganés, 4 de noviembre de 2010.
Organización: Edgardo D. Castronuovo, Julio Usaola García e Ismael Sánchez Rodríguez-Morcillo. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
Mayores informaciones: Edgardo D. Castronuovo, [email protected]
1ª Jornada Técnica
GENERACIÓN SOLAR TERMOELÉCTRICA
Ponente: Juan Casado Martín
Leganes, 04 de Noviembre de 2010
Page 21ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Introduction 3
Market Potential & Development 46
Current Projects & Project Pipeline 34
Cost Reduction & Technology 11
Page 31ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Each year over 1 billion terawatt hours of solar radiation arrive at the Earth’s surface. This corresponds to about 70,000 times of the world's current electricity demand. Thus, solar power has the biggest potential of all renewable energies.
Solar Power is inexhaustible …
Introduction
Page 41ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Less than 3% of the total area of the Sahara desert covered with parabolic trough power plants would be sufficient to supply the world's electricity demand.
… usable at a vast number of sites …
Introduction
Page 51ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Biomass (1) Geothermal (1) Wind (30) Hydro (30)
Solar (250)
In the MENA counties,1 km² delivers about 1.5 million barrels of oil
Energy density in Brackets: typical amounts in GWhel/km²a
Source: Deutsches Luft- und Raumfahrtzentrum DLR
… and it offers the highest energy density
Introduction
Page 61ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
The specialist for solar-thermal power plants
Solar Millennium AG
... is a successful pioneer with a long track-record thanks to the early entryinto the market (1998)
… developed the first parabolic trough power plants in Europe
… supplies the technology for Egypt’s first parabolic trough solar field
... pursues projects globally with an overall capacity of more than 2,000 MW
... has an experienced management and invests in R&D with the aim ofachieving and securing sustainable technology leadership
Introduction
Page 71ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Solar Millennium MENA GmbH
Inner Mongolia STP Development Co. Ltd.
Presencia deSolar Millennium
Mercadospotenciales
Mercados Potenciales
Solar Millennium Israel Ltd.
Worldwide activities of Solar Millennium
Particularly in India, China and further emerging market countries a substantial increase of energy consumption is expected
Page 81ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Projectdevelopment
Projectfinancing
Power plant investment
Technology Construction
Business Units
Minority holdings in power plant companies,
Blue Tower
Power plant investment &
Others
Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of solar thermal power plants
Technology and
Construction
Projectdevelopment and financing
Site selection and qualification,permission process,real estate procurement,
financing of power plant projects and sales of stakes
New
Old
New Segmentation of the Business Units
Introduction
Page 91ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Technology, Financing Expertise and Track Record combined
Financing
e.g. €190 million raised in six corporate
bonds
Finannnnciiing
Technology
!Salt storage!Skal-ET collector!HelioTrough collector
Track Record
!Pioneer in Spain!Fast Track List in the US!Desertec
Introduction
Page 101ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Introduction 3
Market Potential & Development 46
Current Projects & Project Pipeline 34
Cost Reduction & Technology 11
Page 111ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Proven technology: parabolic troughs
The solar radiation is concentrated onto an absorber tube, situated at the focal line of the trough, and transferred into heat which is used to operate a steam turbine generating electricity.
Commercially operated plants in California since 1984 have generated revenues of over US$ 2 billion.
They can be operated as pure solar power plants or in hybrid systems.
Stable electricity production: Thermal storage means electricity production is independent of the momentary solar radiation.
Technology
Page 121ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Technical description
A parabolic trough power plant with thermal energy storage basically consists of three parts:
"solar field with heat transfer circuit
"storage system
"power plant block with turbine, generator and cooling circuit
Components of the parabolic trough power plant
solar field storage system power plant block
Technology
Page 131ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
The electricity supplied from solar-thermal power plants fits ideally to the electricity demand in sunny countries (see graphic).
Stable electricity production even when the sun does not shine due to thermal storage device.
Solar thermal power plants provide grid stability in combination with other renewable energies.
Technology is already competitive for peak-rate market prices.
Base load
Peak load
Mid load
Typical electricity demand in sunny countries
(Costs per kWh)
Time of day (24h)
CSP plants ideal for market requirements
Technology
Page 141ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
High-level STE industry roadmap
Cost Reduction & Technology
Page 151ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Expected cost reduction from 2010 to 2015
Cost Reduction & Technology
Page 161ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Expected cost reduction: impact DNI
Cost Reduction & Technology
Page 171ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
History and outlook: CSP
Technology
ParabolicTrough
767.16 MW
Fresnel9.4 MW
Dish1.65 MW
Tower42.4 MW
CSP in operation until 2010
ParabolicTrough1759.22
MW
Fresnel30 MW
Dish1.01 MW
Tower17 MW
CSP under construction
Page 181ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
• Bigger aperture• New fixing method• Simplification in steel part design
Advantages:
Less foundations
Less drives
Cost reduction
Higher precision
Easier installation
New development:
Parabolic Trough Collector
Technology
Page 191ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
HelioTrough – The next collector generation
Technology
HelioTrough as important result of continuous R&D activities within the Solar Millennium Group
After SkalET, HelioTrough is the second collector generation developed by technology subsidiary Flagsol together with its partners
Higher optical efficiency, larger dimensions and more efficient assembling are expected to reduce costs substantially
Improving competitiveness
Test loop in permanent operation in commercial power plant in California since November 2009
Implementation into Solar Millennium’s solar power plants in California and Nevada planned
Page 201ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Parabolic Trough CollectorComparison of different parabolic shapes
Technology
Page 211ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Comparison LS2 – HelioTrough Comparison SKAL-ET – HelioTrough
LS-2 SKAL-ET 150 HelioTrough
Aperture width 5m 5.77m 6.78m
SCA-Length 48m 150m 191m
Net area (SCA) 235m² 818m² 1263m²
Annual thermal efficiency 38% 44% 48%
Parabolic Trough Collector
Performance results
Technology
Page 221ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica Technology
Expectations (Development goals):
10 % less investment and erection costs for solar field
~ 9 % higher performance (better optical efficiency, lower auxiliary consumption)
In total: 20 % reduced solar field investment cost
Levelized Cost of Electricity: decrease by ~12 % compared to SKALET-Technology
Analysis of SKALET-Technology:
Identification of improvements
Parabolic Trough Collector: Helio-Trough vs. Skal-ET
Page 231ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Parabolic Trough Collector: Helio-Trough vs. Skal-ET
• 19% lower investment cost (solar field) • lower auxiliary consumption• 12 % lower LCOE
Technology
Page 241ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Parabolic Trough Collector: Helio-Trough
Technology
Page 251ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Entry into Blue Tower technology
Technology for use of regenerative feedstock to generate electricity and hydrogen
"Technology is to enable round-the-clock hybrid operation of solar-thermal power plants
"Demonstration project in Herten/Germany to prove marketability with financial volume of€ 24.6 million, subsidised by Land North Rhine-Westphalia with € 7.1 million
"Laying of foundation stone on March 5, 2009
"Start of commissioning at the end of 2009
"Capacity: ca. 13 MWth / 5 MWel
"Great potential worldwide
Technology
Page 261ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
A climate-neutral gas, the“blue gas”, is generated from regenerative feedstock in different separated steps
Amongst others, the blue gas can be used to produce hydrogen
Multi-feedstock technology: Various regenerative feedstock can be used, e.g. chicken manure and olive stones, thus, nearly unlimited potential sites worldwide
Operating modeof the Blue Tower
Technology
Page 271ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Conceptual integration of the Blue Tower into the parabolic trough technologyBlue Tower as co-firing system for round-the-clock operation of the solar power plant
Solar field Storage Co-firing Power block
Technology
Page 281ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
• Grupo de Trabajo 1 (GT1): Aspectos normativos relativos al conjunto de la central eléctrica termosolar.
•Subgrupo de trabajo "Año Meteorológico Tipo“: Definir una serie de términos y de procedimientos de generación de las series de datos que serán utilizadas en el diseño, simulación y análisis de las centrales solares termoeléctricas
• Grupo de Trabajo (GT 2): Aspectos normativos relativos a los componentes de la central eléctrica termosolar.
• Grupo de Trabajo (GT 3): Normalización sobre la caracterización del medio de almacenamiento térmico para aplicaciones de concentración solar.
Technology
Actualmente Solar Millennium participa en el subcomité AEN/CTN 206/SC “Sistemas de Energía Solar Termoeléctrica”
Page 291ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
CAPACITY ADDER – producción diaria
Producir electricidad y cargar almacenamiento al mismo tiempo
Mantener producción de electricidad por la noche
Producir electricidad y cargar almacenamiento al mismo tiempo
Technology
Page 301ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
SOLAR BOOSTER – producción diaria
Carga el almacenamiento hasta medio día sin producción de electricidad
Producción de electricidad entre las 12 y 17:59 utilizando la energía térmica del campo solar Y del almacenamiento
Carga almacenamiento después de las 6 del la tarde
Carga el almacenamiento hasta medio día sin producción de electricidad
Technology
Page 311ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
SHIFTER – producción diaria
Carga del almacenamiento O producción de electricidad durante el día
Producción de electricidad durante periodos con altos factores TOD
Carga del almacenamiento O producción de electricidad durante el día
Technology
Page 321ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Further R&D activities
Solar Millennium permanently develops further existing and new technologies to improve and expand its cutting-edge portfolio
"Cost reduction: Direct steam production and direct heating-up of molten salt, respectively, in absorber tubes to increase the temperature and efficiency; optimisation of collector design
"Expansion of potential sites: Dry cooling of solar thermal power plants to minimise water consumption
"Expansion of possible usage: Desalinationof sea water; enhanced oil recovery by pressurised oil caves with steam produced in parabolic troughs
Technology
Page 331ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Introduction 3
Market Potential & Development 46
Current Projects & Project Pipeline 34
Cost Reduction & Technology 11
Page 341ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
May 2010
Andasol 2
Andasol 1
Andasol 3
an area equivalent to more than 200 soccer fields to collect solar power
The Andasol power plants
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 351ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Andasol 1, 2 and 3 in Spain as reference projects for the world market
Andasol 1: on grid since Dec. 2008; successful bankability and sale of stakes
Andasol 2: on grid since June 2009; successful bankability and sale of stakes
Andasol 3: assembly of collectors completed; successful sale of stakes to investors incl. utilities and closed fund; commissioning planned for mid 2011
These three solar power plants together provide:
More than 1.5 million square meters of collector area (> 200 soccer fields)
About 22,000 collector elements with 270 km of absorber tubes
“Solar” electricity for more than half a million people
Avoiding up to 450.000 tons of carbon dioxide emission each year
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 361ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Spain remains to be core market for Solar MillenniumBesides Andasol 3, Solar Millennium achieved pre-registration for Ibersol
50 MW in the Spanish province of Extremadura
Thermal storage allows dispatchibility of electricity generation
Project development finalized, purchase of key components
Deferral due to planned amendments in Spanish legislation(reimbursement according to feed-in tariff only from mid-2013 onwards)
50% sale of stake to Ferrostaal completed, further involvement of institutional and private investors (via fund) planned
Beginning of construction in fiscal year 2009/10, finalization in 2013 expected
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 371ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
First reference project in Egypt as an indication for the feasibility of Desertec
Construction of a natural gas/solar hybrid power plant (ISCC: Integrated Solar Combined Cycle) with a capacity of 150 MW
Technology subsidiary Flagsol responsible for engineering, supervision and delivery of key components
Assembly of the 130,000 square meters collector area finished, filling of heat transfer fluid
Start of construction at the beginning of 2008, commissioning planned for autumn 2010
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 381ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
First reference project in Egypt
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 391ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Excellently positioned in USA Market (I)
"Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) signed with Southern California Edison (SCE) in 06/2009 for two 242-MW power plants with an option for a third one, all of them on fast-track list; Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with Nevada Energy in 03/2009 for at least one 250 MW power plant in the Amargosa desert
"Four sites with a maximum capacity of 2500 MW are on the Fast-Track List of the US Bureau of Land Management
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 401ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Excellent sites in California and Nevada for solar thermal power projects with an overall capacity of 2,000 MW on fast track list
Ridgecrest
Palen
Blythe!1!&!2
Armagosa
Future market USA (II): Solar Millennium projects
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 411ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Future market USA (III): Focus on Blythe
" One of the first parabolic trough power plant projects of the “new generation” in the Californian Mojave Desert
" Site is good for up to four solar power plant of 242 MW each
" Excellent irradiation conditions
" Dry cooling (significant reduction of water demand)
" Long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for twoprojects signed with Southern California Edison
" Final building permit (CEC license and Record of Decision by BLM) expected in fall 2010
" Potential for up to 3,750 “green” jobs amongst suppliers and construction companies
h
Palen
Blythe 1 & 2
Mojave Desert
Ridgecrest
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 421ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Mandating of Citigroup and Deutsche Bank as financial advisors for projects with a capital demand of about €1 billion per power plant
+Strengthening of the Solar Millennium Group through structural reorganization: founding of the Solar Trust of America LLC as US-American joint venture of Solar Millennium and Ferrostaal under majority ownership of Solar Millennium
Experienced former Citigroup MD John Clapp reinforces STA as new CFO
Future market USA (IV): Founding of Solar Trust of America to enhance market position in the US
70% 30%
Solar Millennium AG Ferrostaal AG
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 431ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Future market USA (V): Several incentives within a supportive framework
Loanguarantee:
Federal loan guarantee
by the Departmentof Energy
(DoE)
ITC:
FederalInvestmentTax Credits
(ITC) or Cash Grants of up
to 30% ofthe total
investment
RPS:
RenewablePortfolio
Standards(RPS) oblige
utilities to generate
electricity on a renewable
basis
e.g. California: 20% by 2010 33% by 2020
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Part of Barack Obama’s 787 bn. US-$ stimulus package of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) dedicated to support renewable energies – incentives based on three pillars:
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 441ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
" Environmental Impact Assessment and notice to the public !" Citigroup and Deutsche Bank mandated to structure financing (Oct. 2009) !
Future market USA (VI): Permitting and financing process for Blythe project on schedule
2010
...March
July
September
August
April
May
June
October
November
December
CEC* Staff Assessment/ BLM** Draft EIS (Environmental Impact Statement) !First discussions with potential third party cash and tax equity investors !
Representatives from USA, Europe and Asia at Investors Day at Andasol 3 !
Acceptance of PPA by California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) !Finalizing EPC term sheet with construction partners !
CEC Supplementary Staff Assessment/ Public Hearings !
Building permits: BLM Record of Decision (ROD) !Expected Financial Close: loans / equity secured
Beginning of construction / Notice to proceed
CEC Presiding Member Proposed Decision (PMPD)/ BLM Final EIS !
* CEC: California Energy Commission ** BLM: Bureau of Land Management
CEC decision/license !
Current Projects & Project Pipeline
Page 451ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Introduction 3
Market Potential & Development 46
Current Projects & Project Pipeline 34
Cost Reduction & Technology 11
Page 461ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Import of solar power from the MENA deserts
Forecast of electricity supply in Europe
is a vision possible:
In 2050 Concentrating Solar Power Plants in the Mediterranean Region expected to deliver twice as much electricity per year as wind, PV, biomass and geothermal plants together. (Med-CSP-Study by German Aerospace Center, DLR)
In 2050, about 15 % of the European electricity demand could be metby solar imports from the Middle East and North Africa.(Trans-CSP-Study by German Aerospace Center, DLR)
Market Potential & Development
Page 471ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Dii GmbH founded in Munich 30/10/2009
Objective:
"Analyse and develop the technical, economic, political, social and ecological framework for carbon-free power generation in the deserts of North Africa
Among the DII's main goals are:
"Drafting of concrete business plans and associated financing concepts
"Initiating of industrial preparations for building a large number of networked solar thermal power plants distributed throughout the MENA region
"Produce sufficient power to meet around 15% of Europe's electricity requirements
"Providing a substantial portion of the power needs of the producer countries
All of the DII's activities will be aimed at developing viable investment plans within three years of its establishment including shareholders from different countries.
Market Potential & Development
Page 481ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Interconnections: bottle neck
• HVDC:!Power transmission over large distance
• Selected reinforcement of!existing transmission grids
• Design for EUMENA!supergrid:!Mediterranean
Market Potential & Development
Page 491ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Expected installed capacity of solar-thermal power plants in GW *
2,000 / 400 **
7,000 / 1,400 **
Studies:
The latest market studies show a significantly stronger market growth for solar-thermal power plants than older studies. By 2050,the word’s total installed capacity of solar-thermal power plants could reach a capacity of 1,000-1,500 GW.
Strong potential for market growth
* Some figures are calculated assuming CAGRs over 5 years derived from the respective studies** Capacity equivalent to the number of parabolic power plants of the Andasol type (Spain) / Blythe type (USA)
Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR): 17.5% (AT Kearney)…29.5% (IEA CSP)
Market Potential & Development
Page 511ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Capacidad instalada y futuros desarrollos
Market Potential & Development
Page 531ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica
Contact
Juan Casado Martín
Solar Millennium AGVelázquez, 150 4ª plantaE-28042 MadridSpain
Tel.: +34 91 590 07 80Fax: +34 91 411 38 17Email: [email protected]: www.solarmillennium.de
Disclaimer:
The present presentation does not constitute a legally binding offer of participation or for the purchase of shares in the company. It is not to be viewed by the recipient as constituting the subject matter of a contract or as a contractual basis for investment. Only inquiries and assessments carried out by the recipient on his/her own account can form a basis for investment in the company. The presentation has been compiled solely on the basis of the company’s business model and range of services, as well as on market and competitive environment research based on sources available publicly. No guarantee or warranty is provided for the accuracy, precision and completeness or for the interpretation of the data and the commentary, nor is any other form of liability for the content of this presentation acknowledged.Budgeting is based on management assumptions and projections and reflects the market development and market opportunity perspectives at the time of compilation. The nature of the dynamic market environment is such that it is subject to constant changes and can therefore influence this budgeting content. No guarantee is provided for the budgeting feasibility.
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