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1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433: 202-473-1000: www.worldbank.org-: [email protected] .
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2015 +277 ( , 1- ) 2,117 400450
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. . , .
( 1 - ) , . ( ) . 30 . .
1 80 . . .
57
4.1
40%- . , . 1960- 400 . .
2004 . 2007 , . , .
2008 , . , , . , ( ) .
, 2008 . 400 - . ( ) 2-3
. .
, .
58
4.3 2005
2006-2021 . ( ) , . 2021 . ,
.
2007 . , . 4.4- . 1.8 . .
4.4 , 2008-2020
:
, . .
59
, 4.4- . 1 2008 300,000 . .
() ( .)
2008-10 230 69
2008-09 329 99
2009 40 12
2011-15 293 88
892 268
4.4
- . . 2009 , , , , .
, . , . . . , . 265 80 . .
4.4 ,
.2 100 ( ) 260 , . . .
2 2008 , , .
4.5
, , . , . . 2007 9000 , 15000 . ,
60
. , . .
20 , . . , , .
4.5
:
. . ,
, .
. - . .
, , , .
.
, .
, , .
61
5
2012 .
10 3 (#5, , ) 2013-14 .
2012 450 - . 2 ., 670 . .
. :
o - 2012 .
o - #5- (300) .
o - #5, - .
2009-2012 550 . 2017 200 . .
. .
, 30- .
5.1 ,
, . 91%, 96%- . - , , , , .
2001 , , . :
( #2, #3, #4), , 5
().
62
- 3,594
- 16.5%
- 3,000
130
- 3,132
, 17.4%
- 2,587
: 2007 ,
().
(). -
(). .
().
(). ().
. . ,
()
/
..
#2 21.5 16.4% 18.0 31 62.2% 23.3%
#3 136 21.0% 107.4 518 49.3% 34.2%
#4 540 14.8% 460.1 1045 52.6% 39.3%
48 18.5% 39.1 181 62.0 28.1%
28.8 22.8% 22.2 120 56.5% 43.8%
5.1 -
: 2007 ,
. , . 2001 76.5% 2007 100% .
, , , () . , .
5.2 -
63
. - .
35- .
- :
( - ) 220- . 2009 . - 220- .
2 - , 2012 .
5.2
. 5.1- - . . .
5.1 2007-2020
5.3 - 2007 -
12 631 . - . - 3.5%- .
- (2000-2007 4.0% -) . - . . . 23% .
- . - .
2012 294, 2020 650 . :
2012 ( 200 ) 2016 ( 300 ).
2009 2014 10 . 100 .
64
2012 2018 20 . ( 200 ).
, .
. .
.
80,000 10- . , . 120,000 20 .
2020 30- .
-
- , , . 3.0%- . .
5.4 2012-2013
. , 5 (#5), - . 2012 . 2013-2014 .
-
- 647 2007 (631) , . 20 . #4- ( 13% ) .
2002 #2 2005 , #3- 2008, 2011 , - 2013 . - 2006 - #2- 2012 , # 3 2016 , - . #4 2020 . - , 2012 629 , 2016 521 .
- . - 255
65
. 2011 . 2012 , .
5
5 ( ) . 2008 7 5 .
300, 700/ . 650 . . 2013 .
2009 1 15 . . #5- .
70 - . 50 116 . , . , .
2010 . ( ) , . .
220 484 . . 2006 300 . . 312 . . 400 . . 2008 , 300 . , .
- , , , . . - , , . 2015 .
- . 100 - 219 . 2000 160 . ( 1600 .) .
66
- - - .
, 50-100 - . 2005 55-60 . .
, 5:1 . . - . .
, . 3x150 - , , . , .
650-750 . ( 1500 . ) 30 . .
, . 1.8 .
5.1- . 2013 .
3600 (6 600 )- . 2005 , 2 - . .
2008 , . :
2,976 . ( 827 .).
300 .
13.6 . 3,150 /, .. 40%.
, 2 7 .
1,300 500- - 200- .
67
10,800 .
2.2- , . , .
2012-2013 .
- . . .
2008 , . :
600 , 4,144 ( 79%);
8% 350
. 580./.
. . 1,500 . .
. 55 . . .
. - 2013-2014 . .
() , ( ) . .
- 2 , . 0,8 . - 650 - (IGCC) . 400 - 250 - .
- 2009 2014 . - 3,5
68
. . 390 . 600 . . 35 . . - 2007 45 . . - .
, -
. . .
-
120 , 204000 . 18 / . 2007 130 , (, ) - 38,4 . .
. :
-
.
- . .
, .
5.5
5.3- . , . , 2012-2013 .
1 , . 3 4 , 4-5 . , - , .
2012-13 , #5, - . 2014 - . . #5, , - .
, 2012 . 2009 .
69
()
( )
#5 300 $1300-1400/ 2013 . 2009 1 . , .
50 $95,000/ 2010 . .
220 $1420/ 2015 . - .
100 $1600/ 2015 . - .
50-100 $1600/ 2012 . , .
450 $1450-1550/ 2012 . . . .
3600-10800 $827/ 2013-2014 . .
600 $580 2014 . . - .
IGCC ()
250 () $600/ 2014-2015 . - . . .
-
255 $204,000/ / ; $18/
- .
5.3
. - . .
. 5.4- .
. .
, #5 ( , )- . , .
- , .
70
.
# 5, , . 5 - . :
.
5 , 2013
..
()
$/ $/k/ $// $/ / $/
#5
/
300 40 1,240 127 38.0 36.0% 12.0 3,150 5% 32.9
300 40 1,240 127 38.0 36.0% 37.0 3,150 5.0% 52.8
300 40 1,110 114 33.0 33.0% 30.0 5,100 7.6% 37.9
300 40 1,110 114 33.0 33.0% 55.0 5,100 7.6% 51.7
300 40 1,110 114 33.0 33.0% 0.0 5,100 7.6% 21.3
/
150 40 1,500 153 33.0 32.0% 35.0 5,100 7.6% 47.1
150 40 1,500 153 33.0 32.0% 5.0 5,100 7.6% 29.9
( 2012 ). 1 2 . 670 . (35%- ) . #5- 310 . . , .
#5 .
71
5.6 , 5.5-
. , 5.2-5.4-
() a () a
() b
($ )
2008 902
2009 902
2010 +50 () 952
2011 952
2012 +416 ( )-
-18 ( #2) 1350 750207
2013 +270 (#5 ) 1,620 450
2015 +220 ( )+277 ( ) 2,117
400450
2016 -107 ( #3) 2,009
2017 2,009
2018 +270 (#5 ) 2,279 450
2019 2,279
2020 2,279
a. . - . . 255 .
5.5
20% . . .
642 , 220- , , 150 - 2012 . 207 . . 150, 220- 640- 375 - 7% . .
. 2009-2012 550 . . 2013-2017 200 . .
5.2 - ,
5.3 ,
72
5.4 , ,
5.7
, , , .
5.1- 5.5- . , . ( , ) , .
( )
2015 62 . , 2020 50 . .
, , , , , 30- . /USAID/
, , 60 .
5.1.
. - . .
73
. ( 20 ./ ). .
, - . , 2014 , . - - 68 . . - 34 . .
- 20-34 . ( ).
5.8
. 4 .
2016 200- . 2016 . .
2013 #5- - . -
- . 2011-2014 , . 100 .
- . 2013, 2014 - . . .
.
1.2 -
1.3
74
5.9
:
-
-
5
. .
2015 .
75
6
.
2020 .
o 2020 350,000 3 .o 500,000 3/ .
: 300,000 3 , 25 40-60 .
, 260 . 500 . .
10 :
o .
o , .
( 3 2.5 .) . :
o .
o
o
6.1
50,000 3 2020 350,000 3 6.1- . . , , 5% .
6.1 (3/)
76
. 5 80,000 . 2008 - 2020 110,000- . 150-180 .
55,000 2015 125,000 , 2020 165,000 . 2015 24,3003 , 2020 30,000 3 - .
,
, , 55,000 6,200 3 . . 6.1- 100-130 . , .
/ 3/ 3/ //
10 1-15 4,000 2,000 15,000 133
18 0.4-27 5,000 3,200 29,000 110
15 1-10 3,500 1,000 10,000 100
6.1.
, . . 95,000, 10-30 1000-3000 3 .
(/)
(2003)
(3/)
, 4 3,400,000 13,600
35 100,000 3,500
35 260,000 9,100
45 120,000 5,400
3,880,000 31,600
6.2.
5%- ( ) 2015 4,200 3, 2020 5,400 3 .
, . 32,000 3 ( 6.2).
5%- 2015 45,000 3 , 2020 58,000 3 .
77
9,000 3 ( ). , , 2015 120,000 3, 2020 200,000 3 .
. . , , , . .
. 100-200 . 400-600 . , 400 .
2015 20 22,000 3 . 2020 50 55,000 3 .
110,000 67,000 3 . 30 3 . 1 82,000 3
2020 500,000 .
41,000 3 .
2015 10,000 3, 2020 20,000 3 .
. 2020 , 15,000 3/ .
, , 2015 . , 2020 12,500 3 . , 1000 2020 10,000 3 .
. . . 2020 , , 15,000 3 .
6.2
, , (, , , ) .
, , . , , . ,
78
. . , , .
(), ( )- . , , . ( 6.2) . , , . , . , .
. ( ) . .
. . .
6.2
. ( ) ; , . .
, , . ( ) . , ( , , ) . , .
, , : ,
1-2%- 50-100- , 680,000-1,370,000 3/ .
, , , 580,0003/ . 1980-1990 , , .
AQUIFER RECHARGE AREA DRY VALLEY PERENNIAL DISCHARGE AREA
very low contemporary recharge rates from exceptional rainfall events
occaslonal recharge in flash floods
via phneatophytic vegetation
SATURATED ZONE
UNSATURATED ZONE
in adjustment to modem clirmale
present groundwater table scan still be falling
groundwater table
ancient
100-000
1000-10.000
10.000-100.000
10.000
groundwater flow with aquifer residence time (years)
79
25-27 40-60%- .
. , 1.3 3/ .
.
,
6.3- . . , , , . , . , .
(350,0003) ,
. ( 50 ) , . 0.1 1 35 3 , 100- ( 50-100) 3,500 3 .
1- 35 3 ( 96 3) . . . (5502) 40 100 42 3/ .
4,0002 . 1-2%- (7,0002) , 250-500 3/ (680,000-1,370,000 3/) .
6.3
80
(200
135,616 60,000115,000
61,233 8,500
89,589111,000
310,616 69,733 199,589
6.3. , (3/)
, / .
165,000 2, 74,500 2, 109,0002 . 1/ 950,0003/ . 30%- 300,0003/ .
, , , .
(50-170 ) 10 40 . , , , . (170 ) . 6.3- , 50% .
. 40 60.000 3/ . .
81
6.3- .
.
. (2007) ( 19) , . 480 3/ 1,3 3/ .
6.5- 1500 / 8 , 2 , 10 , 2 . (2008 ), , . ( ) 10-15% . 260 . .
,1033//2 , 3/
>1 25 31 19
0.1-1.0 77 138 71
0.03-0.1 2 89 19
0.003-0.03 3 3 4
82
6.3
- . , , . : ( 6.4).
- 740 2500/ (216,0003/) , , . 20 . . - 540 1500/ (130,0003/) , , , .
- 2005 400 . - - ( 500 .).
6.4 ,
10 , .
..- %
21
2
26
3
51
5
126
25
224
35
23 29 56 151 259
13
5,421 3.305 1.290 2.058
. , , , .
:
250 . .
, .
. , .
, .
. .
83
6.5 ,
550,000-1,370,0003/ (200-500 3/) . , . 80,0003/ 2020 350,0003/ . 2020 .
, . , , .
. , . ,
6.4
. .
. , , , , .
,
, . ( , , , , , ).
, (-) . - ,
84
, . .
( ) , .
, : , , .
, , . .
, . : (2004) , . , , , .
. , . , , . .
6.6
:
, (-) , ;
, , , , (), ;
- , ;
( , ) ;
, , ;
(/3)
20.0 30.0
10.0 30.0
1. , 2. , , 3. ,
10010080
120120120
, 10.0 30.0
10.0 30.0
( )
, , , . 1%
6.6 2006
85
10- ;
, , ;
;
;
, , . , , ;
, ;
(3 )
(5 )
/
/
/
+
,
,
( , )
3,000
1,000
1,000
2,000
20,000
40,000
2,000
5,000
180
180
36
36
20
12
36
10
540,000
180,000
36,000
72,000
100,000
100,000
200,000
400,000
480,000
72,000
50,000
200.000
2,430,000
, 2-3 . 6.7- 2.4 . .
, .
:
.
6.7.
86
7
, .
.
.
(, , , )- .
.
, .
. .
, . , , . , .
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.
, . , .
87
, , , . 20 , 10 . , , . . . , .
7.1 -
. ( ), . .
, . . .
, , . , .
, .
.
, .
: (2009).
. .
, . . . . , ( ) ( ) .
88
, , . , , . :
42.3- ( 42.7 . )
9- , .
, .
( ) , , , , .
. , , . ( 7.2) . . .
. , . .
, , . , . , , .
7.2
The Yanacocha Association and Yanacocha Womens Association
. , , RE, - . 1 () , , , , , , . 36 .
: - , , : . , : , , , : IDRC/ 2001.
89
. 8,000 , . , .
, , . , , . 26
7.3.
, , . , , , . . , , , , , , , , , . , , , , .
1996 .
:: ,
, , , .
: . ,
. ,
. : ,
,
. .
, , , , , . , , .
. , , .
90
y . . .
, , , ( , , ) . , , , . .
, , , , . . , , .
7.4.
, -
, , . , , . - , . .
, 230 , 2 , 530 . , , .
:
, . . , , - . , .
2007 , . , , , .
91
. , , , , , , .
7.5
2002 : , , . , , , , , .
, 5 10 , , .
: (2007),
7.2 ,
. 3- , , , , .
, ,
. . , .
7.6
, . .
1980- CVRD . 5,500 , 150 . 3 . , , . , . 2006 , , 110,000- .
. 55 . , . 2003 41 , . , , . .
: a
92
. ( , , , , , )- . . ..- .
. ( ) , , . , , .
, . .
.
,
, . . .
, . . , . .
, , , . . ( , ), ( ) .
, , . .
93
7.7
2001-2008 . , .
, , (, , ) . , . .
, . , , . , , .
, . . , , , , . .
. , .
: ABC Te, , , 2008 8- 18. . http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/20080818_boom/interviews.htm
/ ,
/- . /- , . , , , .
7.8. /- ,
500-1800 /- , 100- . /- :
50% . 2006 , 10%
. 2005 51%
. - ,
. . 36% (
16 ).
: (2006).
94
, , . . , .
, . : -- , , , , , . . / 18.8 -- 7.7 .
,
, , , . , , , , .
, , , , . , , ( ). : , , , .
. - 2008 : , , , . ... , .
, . . , .
95
7.9.
. 2007 50 , . , , , . , , , .
. : 1. , ,
, ,
, , ,
2. , . , , ,
, .
, , , .
3.
( )- ,
, . .
4. , .
. .
5. , , , ,
. ,
.
.
: A. (2008) , , : , (2008 8- 19- . : http://www.hsrc.ac.za/Research_Publication-7627.phtml
96
7.3
. , .
, . . , , , , , , . . .
6,407,038 43,957
2,996,077 5,945
206,084 4,470
39,448,676 234,694
:
7.1 (-) 2009 1-
. : (i) (ii) , (iii) , , . 6- .
: , .
, . .
, , .
.
, .
, .
, , , .
, , , , .
, , .
7.2
( ). 0.7 . ( ) .
97
, , , . , .
, . , . , . , , . . , .
,
, , . A , . , . , .
, . 2001-2002 . , , . 2006 .
, . . , .
. . , , .
. , , ,
98
, , . . , , , , ( 7.7).
. , .
, . , , .
. , .
. .
, , . .
. 20- 200 . 50 . .
, , , . . 1990- , , .
99
7.10.
1984 170 . 8 . 100,000 , .
2000 50 . . 10 .
, . , . . 15-20 . .
, , . , , . , .
: --- (2009 4- ).
, . .
,
,
,
, ,
,
, ,
,
. :
7.11.
100
7.4
, . : , ,
o , , ;o ;o ;o
o ,
o ;
,
o , o , ,
o o
o o
, ,
o o , , o o , ,
o
, o ,
o , , o
o , ,
o
o , , o
, , , . , , .
101
7.12.
, , , , , , ( , , , )- , .
, , ( , , , , ) , , , .
, .
. ,
( ). ( ),
, , , .
( ) , ( ) .
, , , .
, , .
, .
, , , , , , .
: - , , , , 1000
102
8
, , , , . .
. , .
, , .
, , .
8.1 ,
, , , , , . 0.1% 16,500 .
. , , . , , .
8.2 , ,
. , .
, . , , . , . ( 100 ), , , , ( )- .
103
8.1.
: , , , , , . :
, . , .
, , . . , , . , .
1500 . . .
. , 100% . 2006 , 300 .
, , . . , .
, , , .
- . .
, , ( ), ( ) . .
, . , . . , .
104
, , . .
, , , . , . , , .
8.3 ,
, . 2009 600 1300 . 2009 350 4 . . . :
, .
.
, .
, , ..
,
, , , . .
, . 2,020 , 320 , 220 . , , , 3 .
8.4 -
. , , . :
,
,
8.1
105
, ,
2000- . , , , , 50-100 . .
.
8.5 5-
2020 350,000 3 . . , . . .
. . , 3-7 , . , , ,
31000 . . , .
8.6 2-
5 80 . , .
, . 120 , . 0.6 . 70,000 8,400 3, , 46 .
. ( 3.2) . .
8.2
106
8.7
. , , , , , , . , . , , , . . .
8.8 ,
. , , , , , , .
8.3
. .
, . , . .
. : , .
8.4 ,
8.9
, . , . :
, , ,
, , ,
107
8.1- . .
, . , , ,
, -
,
,
, , , .
,
. ,
, ,
, , ,
- ,
,
,
,
, ,
, ,- ,
. , .
, . .
8.1
108
, ,
, . ,
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,
, ,
, ()
, ,
,
,
,
,
, ,
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,
-
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,
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.
, ,
, , ,
109
,
,
,
,
. , ,
, .
,
, ,
,
,
, ,
/- , ..
, ,
, , -
, , , ,
110
, 9
, :
(), , .
,() , .
() , ,
() .
, .
.
, () , ,
, , , , .
9.1
. , .
. . :
:
:
5 , .
( , ).
.
,
111
,
, , ( , , ?)
( , , , .).
:
5 - ;
-
( a 2000 - ).
( );
:
,
:
,
, ;
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.
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,
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,
:
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9.2 ,
112
. , . , . . . , - .
,
. . . .
. . :
-
(, , );
; ; ;
; ;
;
;
.
, .
, . , - , , . . , , .
, . .
,
. .
9.1- 2015 5 . . , . - , , - .
113
9.1 (2015 )
,.
1,454
1,277
} , , , . . .
10
28
, 125
4
4
6
. , .
800
700 , .
100 . , .
350 . .
2,711
450 750 .
- 207
#5, , 450
450 .
, 450 . .
400 .
4(IPP) , 1 . .
262
224
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35
3
5,177
114
. . . . . .
, . .
, , . . , . ( ) .
.
. ()- . .
. 50 . 5%- 5 , 500,000 . . 50 . .
. , , . , . , .
.
115
. , , . . , .
, . .
, . . , , . : , . , .
()-
, .
, . .
- . , .
. :
:
,
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: , , .
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116
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. , .
- . , . .
, - , , , . . . . .
- . - . , . :
: . . ( .).
. . . 9.1-
. , .
117
9.1. -
, , . - 1989 60 165 .
, , - , , , , , . , , .
- :
, 240 - , , . 27% 880 . .
1 , , 25 . . , .
. , 49%- 20 . . .
. . , , .
. , .
. . .
. : , , .1
118
3 . : , . .
,
, , . . , .
, . , . , . , . , , .
. , .
, , , . , , .
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. . . . :
( , - );
( );
, , ( - , ).
,
, , , , .
119
.
, . . , , , . , .
, .
. , .
. , , , 3-5 . , , .
9.2
1992 - //- . . 68,000 , 28 . .
- ()- 15 - , , , , . 2 , 5, .
- , ()- . 4 . 1997 - , , . , , . . - .
. . ().
: .
120
. 2008 5- , . , .
:
, , ;
, ;
, .
, . . . , .
.
, , , , .
, , . , , , .
, , . (1965-2006 15 ) .
, . - , ( 9.3).
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121
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-
,
,
9.3.
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- - , .
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- - . - .
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122
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2. 3.
4.
.
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9.
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123
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