November 2016

Trump y la relación comercial México –Estados Unidos

1

2

3

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

11019

94

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Manufacturing employment USA Participación de México en importaciones EE.UU.

NAFTA China OMC

Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census Bureau y INEGI

Great Recession

Empleo manufacturero EE.UU

4Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics e INEGI

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Empleo manufacturero EE.UU Empleo manufacturero México

México

5Fuente: Elaboración propia con Bureau of Labor Statistics y US Census Bureau

R² = 0.0018

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

∆ Em

pleo

man

ufac

ture

ro E

E.U

U

∆ Participación México importaciones EE.UU

China

6Fuente: Elaboración propia con Bureau of Labor Statistics y US Census Bureau

R² = 0.3583

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

∆ Em

pleo

man

ufac

ture

ro E

E.U

U

∆ Participación China importaciones EE.UU

Cuota de mercado de las importaciones de Estados-Unidos

7Fuente: Fuente: Elaboración propia con US Census Bureau

13.5

20.8

0

5

10

15

20

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mexico China Canada Japan Germany

Cuota de mercado de las exportaciones de Estados-Unidos

8Fuente: Fuente: Elaboración propia con US Census Bureau

16.0

7.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

México China Canada Japón European Union

Mexico exportadorPart B Mexico Exports to major trading partners and duties faced

Major markets

Bilateral imports Diversification MFN AVG of Pref. Duty-free imports

in million 95% trade in no. of traded TL margin TL Value

US$ HS 2-digit

HS 6-digit Simple Weighted Weighted in % in %

Agricultural products1. United States of America 2013 18,493 21 102 7.2 6.4 6.2 99.7 99.9

2. Canada 2013 1,480 12 56 6.8 0.9 0.9 96.8 99.93. European Union 2013 1,206 20 60 13.4 6.5 4.4 75.8 81.34. Japan 2013 876 17 58 13.2 12.2 7.4 65.1 44.05. Venezuela 2013 332 12 21 16.6 16.4 1.0 0.0 0.0Non agricultural products1. United States of America 2013 251,714 51 582 3.5 1.9 1.9 100.0 100.0

2. Canada 2013 24,193 43 351 3.3 2.8 2.8 100.0 100.03. European Union 2013 20,846 51 401 4.4 2.0 2.0 99.8 100.04. China 2013 10,094 31 188 9.0 5.3 0.0 11.3 64.05. Brazil 2013 5,695 44 299 13.1 20.2 17.5 29.0 74.5

9Fuente: OMC

Estados Unidos importador

10

UNITED STATES MFN applied duties Imports

Product groupsAVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free

in % in % in %Animal products 2.2 30.8 26 0.4 24.9Dairy products 17.2 0.3 188 0.1 14.2Fruit, vegetables, plants 4.7 21.1 132 1.3 28.8Coffee, tea 3.3 53.5 44 0.5 74.4Cereals & preparations 3.0 20.1 44 0.7 31.5Oilseeds, fats & oils 7.3 25.9 164 0.4 36.5Sugars and confectionery 11.7 2.7 55 0.2 6.3Beverages & tobacco 18.6 26.2 350 1.1 48.2Cotton 4.8 38.3 18 0.0 79.0Other agricultural products 1.0 61.0 52 0.3 67.5Fish & fish products 0.8 84.6 35 0.8 90.4Minerals & metals 1.8 60.9 38 12.5 73.4Petroleum 1.3 0 11 13.4 0Chemicals 2.8 40.8 7 9.8 65.0Wood, paper, etc. 0.5 90.1 14 3.5 92.3Textiles 7.9 15.0 41 1.9 12.6Clothing 12.0 2.8 32 3.8 1.8Leather, footwear, etc. 3.8 39.1 54 2.7 17.6Non-electrical machinery 1.2 65.2 10 14.0 79.4Electrical machinery 1.7 49.0 15 13.2 68.3Transport equipment 3.1 55.3 25 13.0 15.0Manufactures, n.e.s. 2.5 44.2 36 6.6 70.8

Fuente: OMC

Estados Unidos exportador

11

Part B Exports to major trading partners and duties faced

Major markets

Bilateral imports Diversification MFN AVG of Pref. Duty-free imports

in million 95% trade in no. of traded TL margin TL Value

US$ HS 2-digit HS 6-digit Simple Weighted Weighted in % in %

Agricultural products

1. China 2013 25,365 17 31 15.4 11.2 1.8 7.4 5.62. Canada 2013 21,256 27 254 22.4 12.0 5.8 91.7 97.53. Mexico 2013 19,557 30 406 22.2 38.4 37.3 96.0 94.44. Japan 2013 14,518 30 324 22.0 19.1 0.0 23.0 36.25. European Union 2013 12,163 28 168 14.7 4.7 0.0 14.0 49.2Non-agricultural products1. Canada 2013 212,581 59 1,267 2.5 2.2 2.2 100.0 100.02. European Union 2013 200,485 65 1,388 4.4 1.5 0.0 24.0 66.13. Mexico 2013 163,907 69 2,350 8.8 7.7 7.5 99.4 99.14. China 2013 120,416 56 888 9.0 5.0 0.0 8.8 36.55. Japan 2013 54,081 63 1,066 3.0 0.7 0.0 55.5 84.8

Fuente: OMC

Mexico importador

12

México MFN applied duties Imports

Product groupsAVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free

in % in % in %Animal products 29.8 5.6 150 1.2 2.6Dairy products 27.0 3.1 75 0.5 9.0Fruit, vegetables, plants 16.6 5.2 150 0.6 4.3Coffee, tea 26.7 4.2 75 0.2 9.7Cereals & preparations 13.1 15.2 75 1.8 61.0Oilseeds, fats & oils 11.4 39.5 100 1.5 65.0Sugars and confectionery 43.3 0 150 0.3 0Beverages & tobacco 27.2 2.6 67 0.3 17.1Cotton 0.0 100.0 0 0.1 100.0Other agricultural products 6.7 47.6 36 0.6 57.0Fish & fish products 17.0 9.6 20 0.2 9.4Minerals & metals 2.8 75.6 15 12.0 80.4Petroleum 0.1 98.1 5 6.8 97.9Chemicals 2.4 72.2 27 12.5 56.9Wood, paper, etc. 4.4 50.8 15 3.0 65.7Textiles 9.8 11.4 25 2.4 21.8Clothing 21.1 0 25 0.8 0Leather, footwear, etc. 6.2 61.6 46 2.2 58.4Non-electrical machinery 2.8 77.8 20 16.9 89.8Electrical machinery 3.5 69.2 20 22.0 83.5Transport equipment 8.5 45.7 50 9.3 49.5Manufactures, n.e.s. 5.2 56.9 20 4.8 71.1

Fuente: OMC

Crecimiento promedio annual para el periodo 1994 - 2014

13

5.0

2.41.9

0.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

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Fuente: US Bureau Census

Crecimiento anualT2-T3 2015

14Fuente: US Bureau Census

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Tasa de desempleoMayo 2016

15Fuente: Bureau of Labour Statistics

6.7

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5

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Cuota de mercado de las importaciones de autopartes de Estados-Unidos

Mexico62,799

28%

Canada9%

China17%

Japan9%

Germany7%

Korea5%

Taiwan2%

Italy2%

Thailand1%

Other20%

Total NAFTA37%

Fuente: UN Comtrade

Mexico41,563

32%

Canada29%

China4%

Germany3%

United Kingdom3%

Japan2%

Australia2%

Brazil2%

Korea2%

Other21%

Cuota de mercado de las exportaciones de autopartes de Estados-Unidos

Total NAFTA61%

Fuente: UN Comtrade

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