The Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP)€¦ · Fast track contribution =...
Transcript of The Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP)€¦ · Fast track contribution =...
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The Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project
(ISI-MIP)
Franziska Piontek, Katja Frieler, Veronika Huber, Jacob Schewe, Olivia Serdeczny, Lila Warszawski
(ISI-MIP core team)
www.isi-mip.org
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Leading questions
Why should we pay a lot of money for achieving a 2°C instead of 3°C world?
How good are we at telling the difference between a
2°C and a 3°C world ?
What are the related uncertainties?
Are there essential deficiencies in our process understanding or the way proccesses are represented
in impact models?
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Current status of impact studies
IPCC AR4,
WGII, Table
20.8
Global Mean Annual Temperature Change Relative to 1980-1999
1 0 2 3 4
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What is ISI-MIP?
• Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming
RCP climate projections
Global: CMIP5
Socio-economic input
SSP population and GDP
• Agriculture • Water • Biomes • Health (Malaria) • (Coastal infrastructure)
Multiple climate models
& latest socio-economics
(no further
harmonization!) Multiple global impact
models per sector + Fast track contribution
to AR5 =
What is the difference between a 2°, 3° and 4°C world? How good are we at telling this difference?
Are there essential deficiencies in our process understanding or the way proccesses are represented in impact models?
Are these deficiences persistent across different impact models?
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Time line
2/2012 7/2012 1/2013 5/2013
Kick-off
workshop
Deadline of
WG2
Submission of
Publications
Impacts
World 2013
conference
in Potsdam
9/2012
Provision
of input
package
& output
template
Impact
results start
to come in Results
workshop
Reading
12/2011
Invitation
to
modeling
teams
Approval
of PNAS
Special
Issue
Invitation of
contributing
authors
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Participating models: 5 sectors, > 30 models, 11 countries
• 9 water models: VIC, H08, WaterGAP, MacPDM, WBM, MPI-HM, PCR-GLOBWB, DBH, MATSIRO
• 5 biomes models: Hybrid, Sheffield DGVM, JeDi, ANTHRO-BGC, VISIT
• 8+2 agriculture models: GEPIC, EPIC, pDSSAT, DAYCENT, IMAGE, PEGASUS, LPJ-GUESS, MCWLA + MAgPIE, GLOBIOM, ...
• 3 cross-sectoral models: LPJmL, ORCHIDEE, JULES
• 5 health models (= malaria): MIASMA, MARA, VECTRI, WHO CCRA Malaria, LMM 2005
• 1 infrastructure model: DIVA
• Collaboration with
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Input data & setup
• „ISI-MIP Project Design and Simulation Protocol“
• Database for input & output data DKRZ/ Climate Service Center Hamburg & mirror at Earth System Grid
to be transformed into a public database after fast track
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Input data & setup: GCMs [HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM-
CHEM, IPSL-CM5A-LR,GFDL-ESM-2M, NorESM1-M]
PLOT GCMs in
Temp and Precip space
5 GCMs with 4 RCPs each – 2 criteria:
Variable availability
Predicted temperature and precipitation
3.5 4.0 change in GMT [K] 5.0 5.5
ch
ange
inla
nd
-ave
rage
d p
reci
p [
%]
2
1
4
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Input data & setup: bias correction
• applied within impact studies to
correct AOGCMs and regional models
for systematic deviations from
observations due to systematic errors
• 2 steps (based on Piani et al. 2010,
Watch Forcing Data): correction of
monthly mean & adjustment of daily
variability - trend of temporally
interpolated data is preserved with
respect to the monthly mean!
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Scenario setup – minimal setting
• 1 GCM (HadGEM2-ES) with all RCPs
• GCM 2-5 with RCP 2.6 & 8.5
• Sensitivity tests with GCM1 & RCP8.5: no CO2 fertilization, irrigation, human influence (water)
• Socio-economics: SSP2 GDP and population - mostly post-processing
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Analysis Workshop, September 6-9, Reading (UK)
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PNAS Special Issue on ISI-MIP results
• 2 cross-sectoral papers: feedbacks and interlinkages between sectors impact hotspots and vulnerability
• 6 sectoral overview papers: water, biomes, biophysical crop models, agro-economic models, malaria, coastal infrastructure
• Other topics (8 invited papers): – Extreme events – Water supply vs. water demand – Gaps in current impact modeling – Effects of CO2 fertilization – Regional focus China bridge to regional models
1/2013
Dead-
line of
WG2
Submission of
Publications
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Publications
• 36 proposed paper ideas
• Longer-term Special Issue in Earth System Dynamics
• Many other exciting papers
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... and yet so far So close
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What is ISI-MIP after the fast track?
• Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming
• Quantification of uncertainties
• Impact emulators
RCP climate projections Global:
CMIP5 Regional: CORDEX
Socio-economic input
SSP population and GDP
• Agriculture (AgMIP
collaboration)
• Water (WaterMIP collaboration)
• Biomes • Health • (coastal infrastructure)
Multiple climate
models + =
Regular, consistent and quantitative assessment of impacts
Fast track contribution
to AR5
+ long-term community
building
Multiple global & regional
impact models per sector
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www.climate-impacts-2013.org
• Cross-sectoral integration • Bridging the global-regional
divide • What is missing? • Quantifying uncertainty • Stakeholder communication
• Discussion-based interactive format, not just reporting results
• Agenda setting for coordinated, community-driven future research