Solución t1 - Gestacop 2015 II
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Transcript of Solución t1 - Gestacop 2015 II
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SOLUCIN DE EVALUACIN T1
PREGUNTA 1
PERIODO 2015-1 (bolsas/m
A!O 1 2 " #
2015 15000 14500 15500 14860
1 2 3 4
a A $
% & 14591 181.71 '
& 0.6288 ) existe una correlacin sig
0.3954 ) Los ajustes no son mu r
b 2015-1 201
*es Es+e,ao 1
2. mes 14500 16045
#. mes 14860 16408
Tasa e aa+, 2. 10354
#. 10#24
I,e6ea+,7
+ E+8a+, e me9o a98se
R2 &
#on res$ecto al a%o anterior& la tasa 'e variaciin'ica (ue la 'eman'a va )a aumentar en 3.13*
1 2 3 4 5 6
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500+,x- / 111.6666666667x5 1948.3333333332x4 / 12748.3333333323x3 38581.666666663x2 / 52769.9999999942x
1
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PERIODO 2015-1 (bolsas/mes
1 2 " # 5
15001 14503 15508 14875 160191 2 3 4 5
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s PERIODO 2015-2 (bolsas/mes
5 3 1 2 " #
16000 15500 15863 16045 16226 16408
5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 " #
14773 14954 15136 15318
1 2 3 4
nifcativa.
!ona"les.
5-2
Es+e,ao 2
14954
15318
"1"4
"0:4
$ara los meses 2 4&3.08* res$ectivamente. 1 2 3
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
+,x- 181.7142857143x 14590.666
0.3954275287
40099.9999999967
1 2 3
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
+,x- 181.7142857143x 1
0.3954275287
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PERIODO 2015-2 (bolsas/mes
3 1 2 " #
15515 /10305 /118754 /414186 /10614006 7 8 9 10
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5 3 Es+e,ao 1
16590 16772
11 12
5 3 Es+e,ao 2
15500 15681
5 6 2
2
2
4 5 6
666667
o 7
Linear ,o 7-
14400 14600 14800 15000 15200 15400 15600
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
+,x- 0.0021760949x / 29.6346715328
0.3954275287
4 5 6
590.6666666667
o 7
Linear ,o 7-
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5 3
/2299041 /445299711 12
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15800 16000 16200
o 8
Linear ,o 8-
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PREGUNTA 2Es+e,ao 1
a 0.10erio'o t t1
gosto 1 42400 45600
:e$tiem"re 2 45280
;ctu"re 3 40752
ao 10 19492
?unio 11 17542
*ESES (Los e ;elaoA!O Seembe O+8be Noembe D+embe E,eo
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b Es+e,ao 2
0.20
erio'o,t- t =t "s,=t-
gosto 1 55400 45600
:e$tiem"re 2 45600 47560 /1960 1960
;ctu"re 3 47560 47168 392 392
ao 10 47233 47233 0 0
?unio 11 47233 47233 0 0S8ma -13"" 2#50
< 10 > 245.00
*ESES (Los e ;elaoA!O Seembe O+8be Noembe D+embe
= & 020 47560 47168 47246 47231= & 0"0 48540 47658 47923 47843
ronstico ,
t1-
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2
>eb
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0.30
"s,=t-@t =t@t erio'o,t- t
1 55400
3841600 0 0 2 45600
153664 0 0 3 48540
6147 0 0 4 47658
246 0 0 5 47923
10 0 0 6 47843
0 0 0 7 47867
0 0 0 8 47860
0 0 0 9 47862
0 0 0 10 47861
0 0 0 11 47862#00133 0 0
< 10
E,eo eb
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Es+e,ao 2 0.10
erio'o t t1
gosto 1 42400 45600
:e$tiem"re 2 45600 45280
;ctu"re 3 45280 45312
ao 10 45309 45309
?unio 11 45309 45309
*ESES (Los e ;elaoA!O Seembe O+8be Noembe D+embe E,eo 15723
DA* 221227
15723
ronstico ,t1-
=t2
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=t "s,=t- "s,=t-@t =t@t
45600
48540 /2940 2940 8643600 0 0
47658 882 882 777924 0 0
47923 /265 265 70013 0 0
47843 79 79 6301 0 0
47867 /24 24 567 0 0
47860 7 7 51 0 0
47862 /2 2 5 0 0
47861 1 1 0 0 0
47862 0 0 0 0 0
47862 0 0 0 0 0S8ma -2232 #200 B#B:#32 0 0
> 420.00
DA*245.00
420.00
ronstico ,
t1-
=t2
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>eb
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PREGUNTA "
*es 1 2 " #
1250 1400 1320 1420
a Pomeo *l Po,eao
, & "
erio'o,t- t =t
1 1 1250 02
2 2 1400 0"
" 3 1320 05
1 4 1420 1330 90.0
2 5 1500 1386 114.0" 6 1380 1440 /60.0
# 7 1730 1424 306.0
5 8 1620 1579 41.0
3 9 1480 1605 /125.0
10 1644 1572 72.0
: 11 1550 1590 /40.0
B 12 1420 1564 /144.2
S8ma 25":
N & B
S8aa+, E6o,e,+al
, & " = & 0.20
erio'o,t- t =t
1 1 1250
2 2 1400" 3 1320
1 4 1420 1624 /204.0
2 5 1500 1583 /83.2
" 6 1380 1567 /186.6
# 7 1730 1529 200.8
5 8 1620 1569 50.6
3 9 1480 1580 /99.5
10 1644 1560 84.4
: 11 1550 1576 /26.5B 12 1420 1571 /151.2
S8ma -#152
eman'a,:acos-
ronstico ,t1-
ronstico ,t1-
Ana +ormarelativamen
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N & B
Res68esa7 Pom *l Po, S8a
DA* 110.24 12
b
*es 1 2 " #
1251 1387 1362 1376
erio'o,t- t =t
1 1 1250 1251 /1.2
2 2 1400 1387 12.6
" 3 1320 1362 /42.4
1 4 1420 1376 43.8
2 5 1500 1453 47.1
" 6 1380 1544 /164.3
# 7 1730 1600 130.2
5 8 1620 1605 15.4
3 9 1480 1584 /104.1
10 1644 1576 68.0
: 11 1550 1569 /19.5
B 12 1420 1411 8.6
S8ma 252
eman'a,:acos-
ronstico ,t1-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
+,x- / 0.0455882353x6 1.8182503771x5 / 28.2164404223x4 213.2563759768x3 / 804.67215
0.6942384852
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N & B
Pom *l Po, S8aa+,
DA* 110.24 120.74
+ *es 1 2
Po,s+o (Sa+os 1251 1387
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5 3 : B 10
1500 1380 1730 1620 1480 1644
"s,=t- "s,=t-@t =t@t
90.0 8100.0 0.063 0.063
114.0 12996.0 0.076 0.07660.0 3600.0 0.043 /0.043
306.0 93636.0 0.177 0.177
41.0 1681.0 0.025 0.025
125.0 15625.0 0.084 /0.084
72.0 5184.0 0.044 0.044
40.0 1600.0 0.026 /0.026
144.2 20793.6 0.102 /0.102
BB22 13"2153 03 01
DA* 1102#
t 1700
"s,=t- "s,=t-@t =t@t
204.0 41616.0 29.3 /0.144
83.2 6922.2 4.6 /0.055
186.6 34804.6 25.2 /0.135
200.8 40301.4 23.3 0.116
50.6 2560.5 1.6 0.031
99.5 9904.0 6.7 /0.067
84.4 7120.8 4.3 0.051
26.5 701.8 0.5 /0.017151.2 22859.5 16.1 /0.106
10:3 133B0B 1115B -0""
=t2
=t2
e )acer (ue el $rome'io mvil res$on'a mBs rB$i'o a los cam"ios en la 'eman'a es 'te mBs $eso a las 'eman'as recientes (ue a las anteriores.
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DA* 120#
a+,
.74
5 3 : B 10
1453 1544 1600 1605 1584 1576
"s,=t- "s,=t-@t =t@t
1.2 1.6 0.0 /0.001
12.6 158.5 0.1 0.009
42.4 1797.6 1.4 /0.032
43.8 1919.7 1.4 0.031
47.1 2214.9 1.5 0.031
164.3 26991.6 19.6 /0.119
130.2 16950.0 9.8 0.075
15.4 237.4 0.1 0.010
104.1 10832.9 7.3 /0.070
68.0 4624.0 2.8 0.041
19.5 379.7 0.2 /0.013
8.6 74.3 0.1 0.006
3010 3#22#5 #2: 00
=t2
. 8054x2 1427.0541272443x 442.0000000005
o 4
olnomial ,o 4-
=l mo'elo 'e $ronstico (ue 'e"erCa utili!ar el Derente 'e Eentas $$rximo a%o& serCa el 'e rome'io >vil on'era'o a (ue tiene el
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
+,x- / 0.0455882353x6 1.8182503771x5 /
0.6942384852
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DA* 33
Rees, Pol,m+a 3.
66.77
"
1362
nali!an'o el > 'e los mo'elos $ro$uestos 'e $Eentas $ara $ronosticar las ventas $ara el $rximo
$oco ra!ona"le& su > esmenor (ue los $ro$uFltimo.
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11 12
1569 1411
#
ra $ronosticar las ventas $ara elenor >.
9 10 11 12
28.2164404223x4 213.2563759768x3 / 804.6721548054x2 1427.0541272443x 442.0000000005
o 4
olnomial ,o 4-
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2
onsticos (ue 'e"erCa utili!ar el Derente 'ea%o& el 'e egresin& a$esar 'e tener un 2
stos& $or lo tanto& 'e"erCa cam"iarlos $or este