NAFTA, BREXIT, TPP: El futuro de las nuevas · El futuro de las nuevas configuraciones de la ......

30 de Marzo de 2017

Logistic Summit & Expo 2017

NAFTA, BREXIT, TPP:

El futuro de las nuevas

configuraciones de la

cadena de suministro

3

• Se proyecta que el crecimiento mundial repuntará a 3.4% en 20171,2.

• El Brexit, referendo en otras naciones europeas, la presión mundial de

políticas populistas y aislacionistas y el reequilibramiento de China

afectarán los flujos comerciales globales1,2

• Se prevé una recuperación parcial del precio de las materias primas1,2

• Se prevé un crecimiento más lento del Reino Unido por la incertidumbre

post-Brexit (1.1% en 2017)2

• La reactivación de la zona del euro seguirá a una tasa ligeramente más

baja que en 2015.2

• Se prevé una recuperación parcial del precio de las materias primas2

Fuentes: (1) January 2017, Global Economic Prospects, A World Bank Flagship Report; (2) Perspectivas de la Economía Mundial,

Fondo Monetario Internacional, 2016.

Tendencias en la Economía Global

Exportación en 2015: 392 B USD

¿Hacia dónde exporta México?

Fuente: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (www.atlas.media.mit.edu/es/).

7



Distribución de las Exportaciones de México

al Mundo en 2015

3

Equipos y Maquinarias36%

Transporte26%

Petróleo, Derivados y Minerales

7%


Distribución de las Exportaciones de México

a Estados Unidos en 2015


4


Transporte27%

Importación en 2015: 378 B USD

¿Desde dónde importa México?


7

Importación en 2015: 188 B USD

Distribución de las Importaciones de México

desde Estados Unidos en 2015


5


Transporte39%

Productos Minerales

11%

Plásticos y Gomas9.9%

Metales9%

Productos Químicos

7.6%

Importación en 2015: 2.16 T USD

¿Desde dónde importa Estados Unidos?


6

Exportación en 2015: 1.38 T USD

¿Hacía dónde exporta Estados Unidos?


6

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Canada

China

Japan

Mexico

Importaciones de USA por país

Fuente: US Census Bureau

8

¿Es el déficit comercial el impulsador de los

cambios en TLCAN?

Fuente: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-world-map-of-u-s-trade-deficit/

15.00

16.00

17.00

18.00

19.00

20.00

21.00

22.00

23.00

Tasa de Cambio Peso-Dólar 4-ene-2017

Automotriz cancela la

construcción de su

planta en San Luis

Potosí9-nov-2016

Trump es elegido

Presidente de EEUU

1-ene-2017

Cambio de los

precios de las

gasolinas

23-jun-2016

El Reino Unido

anuncia su salida de

la Comunidad

Económica Europea

(BREXIT)

22-dic-2015

Tercer rescate

para Grecia

19-jul-2016

Donald Trump es

escogido como

candidato republicano

29-nov-2016

Trump anuncia que

Carrier mantendrá

1,000 empleos que

se iban a mover a

México

23-ene-2017

Trump anuncia salida

de EEUU del TPP

15-dic-2016

Banxico

incrementa su

tasa de interés a

5.75%; quinta

alza en el año

Marzo-2016

El dólar retrocede

0.33 por ciento con

respecto a una

canasta de seis

divisas

Abril-2016

El crudo tipo West Texas

Intermediate baja 4.02 por

ciento a 36.80 dólares por

barril, mientras que el Brent

disminuye 3.97 a 38.73 dólares

Varios eventos que aumentan la volatilidad y

los riesgos…

Fuente: Análisis de KPMG con datos de BANXICO

TLCAN

1994

TLC’s

concluidos en esta

Administración

Acuerdos: 11 de libre comercio | 46 países | 32 de inversión |

6 de complementación económica | 3 de alcance parcial.

Nuevos

Turquía Jordania

Profundización

TLCUEM Brasil

TLC’s en

negociación

Acceso preferencial a 46 países

58% PIB mundial | 53% comercio global | 1,150 millones

consumidores potenciales

Consolidación y acceso a nuevos

mercados

?

México a la vanguardia en política comercial

Fuente: OMC (International Trade and Market Access Database, abril 2015) y FMI (World Economic Outlook abril 2015).

TLCAN: Tratado de Libre Comercio para América del Norte. TLC: Tratado de Libre Comercio.

11

• Debemos cuidar el mercado del TLCAN porque representa la mayoría

de nuestras exportaciones e importaciones, las cuales son difíciles de

sustituir en el muy corto plazo.

• México es el segundo mercado más importante de las exportaciones

estadounidenses y el tercer socio comercial de Estados Unidos. Esta se

considera la relación bilateral colindante más importante a nivel global.

• Los sectores que tendrían un mayor impacto ante la salida de Estados

Unidos del TLCAN serían el agropecuario y el automotriz, además de la

energética, manufacturera, aeroespacial, y farmacéutica.

• Una reducción de las exportaciones mexicanas a USA traería como

consecuencia inmediata una reducción de las importaciones desde

USA, por lo cual no es conveniente para ese país y no modificaría el déficit

en su balanza.

• Si USA sale del TLCAN, los aranceles pasaría en promedio de 0 a entre

2 y 7%, si siguen las reglas de la OMC, lo que encarecería ligeramente

nuestras exportaciones en USA.

12

Posibles Impactos de estas Tendencias

Preguntas y respuestas

kpmg.com.mx

01800 292 KPMG

[email protected]

Argenis BauzaSocio Líder de Cadena de Suministro y

Compras para América Latina

KPMG en México

© 2017 KPMG Cárdenas Dosal, S.C., la firma mexicana miembro de la red de firmas miembro independientes de KPMG afiliadas a KPMG International Cooperative

(“KPMG International”), una entidad suiza. Las firmas miembro de la red de firmas independientes de KPMG están afiliadas a KPMG International. KPMG International

no provee servicios a clientes. Ninguna firma miembro tiene autoridad para obligar o comprometer a KPMG International ni a ninguna otra firma miembro frente a

terceros, ni KPMG International tiene autoridad alguna para obligar o comprometer a ninguna firma miembro. Todos los derechos reservados.

Gracias

www.pwc.com

Know Your Supply Chain…

Amidst ever increasing supply chain complexity, it is becoming more imperative to understand the “who, what, and where” in the network

Pablo Guzman

March 2017

Companies who respond effectively to

crises show sustained market value

increases over others

Source: Knight / Pretty 1996 – 2010

22% increase in shareholder value

World Economic Forum estimates that the average fortune 500 companies loss $3.2B in market cap after a notable disruption

Supply chain events and disasters fall into

common categories

There are two pervasive supply chain

trends that are challenging supply chain

execution and introducing riskCompanies face higher expectations

Cost Containment, Corporate Social Responsibility, and Regulatory Changes place greater burdens on supply chains

85% of CEO’s believe successful organizations will be

required to Address Wider Stakeholder Needs over the next 5 years2

Supply chains are becoming complex

Lean Manufacturing, Outsourcing, and Product Customization initiatives are driving complexity and eliminating redundancies

55% of companies view Managing Complexity as a

Top 3 operations priority1

Sources:1. PwC Global Operations Survey, 20152. PwC Global CEO Survey, 2015

PwC

Trend 1

Complexity is Driving Increases in the Probability and Impact of Disruptions in the Supply Chain

74%

80%

87%

94%

95%

Number of entities in the…

Products and services are…

New product introductions…

Changes in the supply chain…

Dependencies between…

Percentage who agree

Trends in complexity and disasters are

exposing companies to increases in the

probability of supply chain disruption

Sources:1. PwC and the MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation, 20142. Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting and Catastrophe Perils, 20163. “An Empirically Derived Framework of Global Supply Resiliency.” Blackhurst, Dunn, and Craighead.

2011

• Total Natural and Man Made Disasters in this decade are expected to be more than double the number seen in the 1980s2

• Length and complexity in supply chains is exposing supply chains to higher levels of disruption3

• Interdependencies in supply chains now cause rippling effects

Trends in Supply Chain Complexity since 20101

Supply chain complexity is also driving

increases in the cost of disruptions

Sources:1. Business Continuity Institute Supply Chain Resilience Reports, 2011-20152. μ = 4.7M, σ = 29.2M

Average Cost of Disruptions 2011-20151

• We would expect about 1 in 2000 companies to experience a “mega” disruption where cost exceeds $100M

• In reality, closer to 1 in 100 companies will experience this type of disruption in a given year

• “Tail risk” events occur more often based on the interconnectedness of global supply chains, and we tend to underestimate our exposure

The Rise of “Mega” Disruptions

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Size

of

Dis

rup

tio

n (

in $

M)

Worst 3% Worst 10% Average

PwC

Trend 2

Increased Stakeholder Expectations Create Further Execution Challenges, but Technology Implementation offers a Win-Win Scenario

Greater transparency and evolving

stakeholder needs are creating challenges

for supply chain execution

Source: PwC Global CEO Survey, 2015

71%

81%

87%

…develop a purpose centered around creating

value for wider …

…report on financial and non-financial matters

…address wider stakeholder needs

Percentage who agree

• Technology is creating greater transparency, allowing individuals to access information on what companies do and the impact of their actions

• Increased reporting expectations come at a time when the global regulatory environment is becoming more uncertain

• 81% of CEOs believe the future will be defined by multiple jurisdictions1

Successful Organizations in 5 years will…1 Effect of Technology on Reporting Expectations

Supply chain regulatory changes pose

challenges to efficiency goals


Major Supply Chain Regulatory Changes

UK Modern Slavery Act requires companies doing business in the UK to report steps taken to prevent human trafficking

Conflict Minerals rule adopted by the SEC detailing reporting requirements in the US related to the sourcing of certain minerals

2012

National Bioengineered Food Disclosure Standardrequires the USDA to promulgate regulation establishing a disclosure guideline for bioengineered foods

US Drug Quality and Security Act outlines traceability requirements for prescription drugs sold in the US

2013

2015

2016

US Tax and Trade Policies under consideration include :Border tax adjustment on imports and exports, corporate Tax restructuring, and import duties and trade agreements renegotiations (among others)

Current

of CEOs around the world view increasing regulation as the top threat to business growth1

79%

of CEOs believe government and regulators have a high impact on their strategy1

69%

PwC

Putting it All Together

A Framework for Increasing Supply Chain Transparency and how One Company was able to Reduce Disruption Risk

Know your Supply Chain

“Know Your Customer” processes were created for financial institutions to understand who they were

conducting business with, and who was using their services (US Patriot Act). Controls include: Collection and analysis of basic identity information Name matching against list of known parties (e.g., politically exposed persons Determination of a customer’s risk potential (i.e., in terms of money laundering, terrorist financing, or

identity theft) Creation of an expectation of customer behavior Monitoring of customer behavior

“Know your Supply Chain” is a mindset of understanding the assets, partners (vendors, relationships,

etc.), and risks in a company’s supply chain with the following goals: Understand the where and how products are produced Prepare for and respond quickly to supply chain disruptions Comply with supply chain regulation reporting requirements

Companies need a framework for

managing supply chain risk amidst growing

complexityPrepare before a disruption happens

Understand network and partners, analyse risks,

disruption planning and exercising, monitoring

Key Outcome

Understand and plan for specific risks to the supply chain

Respond rapidly and effectively from day one

Response strategy, stakeholder management,

crisis management

Key Outcome

Implement risk monitoring and coordinated

crisis response plan

Get back to business and embrace the new normal

Recovery strategy

implementation, people and

project management

Key Outcome

Incorporate lessons learned

to increase supply chain

resilience

Implementation Step Information Requirements

Implementing this framework requires

detailed information about the supply chain

Prepare before a disruption happens

Understand and plan for specific risks to the supply

chain

Respond rapidly and effectively from day one

Implement risk monitoring and coordinated crisis

response plan

Get back to business and embrace the new normal

Incorporate lessons learned to increase supply chain

resilience

Detailed understanding of assets, suppliers, partners, and material flows

Technology systems to monitor supply chain and allow cross functional recovery coordination

Lessons learned captured during the incident to be incorporated into future scenario planning

Leveraging technology to increase supply

chain transparency can assist with supply

chain reporting and risk managementFinding a “Win-Win” between risk management and reporting

2/3rds of supply chain leaders are looking for ways to increase transparency in their supply chain1

Technology can drive a “win-win”, improving transparency to support both risk mitigation programs

and reporting requirements


Managing Supply Chain Risk

Reporting and Compliance

Companies who apply leading supply

chain risk management practices do better

in important performance measuresPercentage of companies with 3 or more disruptive incidents that suffered at least a 3% impact on the defined metrics below:

41%28%

Market Value

Less Mature More Mature

57%44%

Revenue


80%

52%

Total Supply Chain Costs


13% more companies took at

least a 3% hit to market value


least a 3% hit to revenue


least a 3% hit to total supply chain costs

Source: PwC and the MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation, PwC 2014

Contact information

Operations

Mariano Escobedo 573Col. Rincón del BosqueT: +52 (55) 5263 [email protected]

Pablo GuzmanDirector

© 2017 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the US member firm or one of its subsidiaries or affiliates, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity.

Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.

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