Modelo de planificación energética orientado al desarrollo sostenible

Modelo de planificacin energtica orientado al desarrollo sostenible Ing. Pablo lvarez WatkinsDirector: Dr. Juan Jos Snchez InarejosTesis Doctoral

VICorroboracin del modelo

Utilizar los datos histricos por lustro desde 1950, tanto en Poblacin como en Consumo Energtico por gruposVerificar fiabilidad Estimar consecuenciasSe establecieron 2 casos de control: el C0, utilizando 11 datos histrico por grupo, y el C0b que usa slo 2 datos histricos por grupo, es la corroboracin del mtodo de proyeccin inversa.VI.- Corroboracin del modelo

Caso C0 - 1950-2000 VI.- Corroboracin del modelo

Grfico1

117.411246.3419.53181.33183.3181.77199.71399.371

135.111451.4823.91193.195199.9189.13208.53486.772

154.11657.7328.23206216.5196.27217.36570.1748

176.321864.2132.78216.16231.38201.01224.3657.6129

200.362089.9237.1227.03246.29205.77231.2722.594

226.022292.8740.43236.77259.99211.03239.79809.029

255.922486.4644.12246.5273.7216.32248.34899.2774

297.512686.3546.7254.83287.69220.25254.11977.017

339.442885.9549.48261.86301.69224.25259.891054.8912

386.663119.952.06260.3314.49228.38263.711103.943

432.723352.4654.56257.9327.32232.64267.541154.953

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

Resto

Millones de habitantes

Caso 0 - Poblacin mundial por grupos

GI

Paso 1

Grupo IAngola, Arabia Saudita, Etiopa, Nigeria, Pakistn, PerGrupo I

y Repblica Democrtica del Congo

Caso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - Control

P = Ref., CEPC = Dep., SC = ref.P = Ref., CEPC = Dep., SC = ref.

Sectores de consumo energtico

Indice de crecimiento poblacional por lustro

1950117.410.1223.142.722000 - ref.19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000

1955135.110.1523.173.13Industria111.330.300.340.390.430.480.590.700.840.971.151.33

1960154.10.1422.973.54Transportes121.450.330.380.420.470.530.640.760.921.061.251.45

1965176.320.1422.403.95Otros sectores536.411.441.661.882.092.332.823.374.064.695.546.41

1970200.360.1421.964.40Usos no energticos20.240.050.060.070.090.090.110.130.150.190.210.24

1975226.020.1323.545.32Prdidas222.660.600.690.780.870.971.171.401.681.952.302.66

1980255.920.1324.856.36Total:100%12.092.723.133.543.954.405.336.367.658.8610.4512.09

1985297.510.1625.717.652.723.133.543.954.405.326.367.658.8610.4612.09

1990339.440.1426.108.86

1995386.660.1427.0510.46

2000432.720.1227.9412.09

68.48

(total de referencia-11 aos)

% de Cambio

Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GI en el 1950Sectores en % del GIIB en el 2000 y del GI enel 2000

2000/19502000/19502000/195019500.25Industria7.52Industria1111

368.55%120.74%444.49%19550.285Transportes8.21Transportes1212

19600.315Otros sectores36.29Otros sectores5353

El IDH se supone a partir de 1975 en regresin lineal.19650.340Usos no energticos1.39Usos no energticos22

19700.370Prdidas15.07Prdidas2222

19750.397Total:68.47

19800.430

19850.451

19900.475

19950.498

20000.518

GI

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIIB

Paso 1

Grupo IIBArgelia, Argentina, Brasil, China, Chile, Egipto, Filipinas, India, IndonesiaGrupo IIB

Irn, Kenia, Marruecos, Mxico, Tailandia, Turqua, Venezuela, y Vietnam





19501246.340.112.8416.002000 - ref.19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000

19551451.480.1613.5019.59Industria2524.744.004.905.806.908.0010.0912.2214.5717.0020.9424.74

19601657.730.1414.0023.21Transportes1817.812.883.534.184.975.767.278.7910.4912.2415.0817.81

19651864.210.1214.8127.61Otros sectores2928.704.645.686.738.019.2911.7114.1716.9119.7224.2928.70

19702089.920.1215.3232.02Usos no energticos43.960.640.780.931.101.291.621.952.332.723.363.96

19752292.870.1017.6140.38Prdidas2423.753.844.705.576.637.689.6911.7313.9916.3220.1023.75

19802486.460.0819.6548.86Total:10098.9616.0019.5923.2127.6132.0240.3848.8658.2968.0083.7798.96

19852686.350.0821.7058.2916.0019.5923.2127.6132.0240.3848.8658.2967.9983.7798.96

19902885.950.0723.5667.99

19953119.90.0826.8583.77

20003352.460.0729.5298.96

516.68


% de Cambio





El IDH se supone a partir de 1975 en regresin lineal.19650.510Usos no energticos20.67Usos no energticos44


19750.572Total:516.68

19800.605

19850.632

19900.661

19950.688

20000.712

GIIB

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIIIB

Paso 1

Grupo IIIBCuba y SudfricaGrupo IIIB





195019.530.0426.980.532000 - ref.19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000

195523.910.2226.770.64Industria240.970.130.150.180.200.250.340.430.550.660.810.97

196028.230.1827.280.77Transportes180.730.100.120.140.150.190.250.320.410.490.600.73

196532.780.1625.320.83Otros sectores19.30.780.100.120.150.160.200.270.340.440.530.650.78

197037.10.1327.761.03Usos no energticos2.70.110.010.020.020.020.030.040.050.060.070.090.11

197540.430.0934.881.41Prdidas361.460.190.230.280.300.370.510.640.820.991.211.46

198044.120.0940.341.78Total:1004.050.530.640.770.831.031.411.782.282.743.364.05

198546.70.0648.612.270.530.640.770.831.031.411.782.272.743.364.05

199049.480.0655.382.74

199552.060.0564.543.36

200054.560.0574.234.05

19.41


% de Cambio




19600.640Otros sectores3.74Otros sectores19.319.3

El IDH se supone a partir de 1975 en regresin lineal.19650.660Usos no energticos0.52Usos no energticos2.72.7


19750.696Total:19.42

19800.711

19850.733

19900.766

19950.777

20000.746

GIIIB

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIVB

Paso 1

Grupo IVBEstonia, Federacin Rusa, Polonia, Rumania, y UcraniaGrupo IVB





1950181.330103.4018.752000 - ref.19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000

1955193.1950.07139.2426.90Industria2610.894.886.999.1111.2613.4114.8016.9317.8517.5011.8410.89

19602060.07170.1035.04Transportes7.53.141.412.022.633.253.874.274.885.155.053.423.14

1965216.160.05200.3643.31Otros sectores2811.735.257.539.8112.1314.4415.9418.2419.2218.8512.7511.73


1975236.770.04240.4456.93Prdidas3615.086.759.6812.6115.5918.5620.4923.4524.7124.2316.3915.08

1980246.50.04264.2265.13Total:10041.8918.7526.9035.0443.3151.5756.9365.1368.6467.3145.5341.89

1985254.830.03269.3668.6418.7526.9035.0443.3151.5656.9365.1368.6467.3145.5341.89

1990261.860.03257.0567.31

1995260.3-0.01174.9145.53

2000257.9-0.01162.4341.89

520.99


% de Cambio



142.23%157.09%223.41%19550.730Transportes39.08Transportes7.57.5




19750.782Total:520.99

19800.796

19850.808

19900.803

19950.786

20000.793

GIVB

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIIA

Paso 1

Grupo IIAAustralia, Canad, EE.UU., Irlanda, LuxemburgoGrupo IIA





1950183.30.04325.9059.742000 - ref.19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000

1955199.90.09315.4163.05Industria24.431.3514.5815.3816.1917.0017.8219.4821.1522.6024.0428.0031.35

1960216.50.08306.5666.37Transportes26.734.3015.9516.8317.7218.6119.5021.3223.1524.7326.3130.0034.30

1965231.380.07301.1969.69Otros sectores2228.2613.1413.8714.6015.3316.0617.5719.0720.3721.6825.5028.26


1975259.990.06307.1779.86Prdidas25.232.3715.0515.8916.7317.5618.4020.1221.8523.3424.8328.5032.37

1980273.70.05316.7786.70Total:100128.4759.7463.0566.3769.6973.0279.8686.7092.6198.54114.00128.47

1985287.690.05321.9192.6159.7463.0566.3769.6973.0279.8686.7092.61101.06114.00128.47

1990301.690.05334.98101.06

1995314.490.04362.49114.00

2000327.320.04392.49128.47

934.57


% de Cambio


2000/19502000/19502000/195019500.755Industria227.59Industria24.424.4




19700.825Prdidas234.65Prdidas25.225.2

19750.843Total:932.04

19800.861

19850.877

19900.896

19950.918

20000.934

GIIA

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIIIA

Paso 1

Grupo IIIAAustria, Blgica, Dinamarca, Espaa, Finlandia, Francia, Grecia,Grupo IIIA

Holanda, Portugal, Reino Unido, y Suecia





1950181.770.020103.2218.762000 - ref.19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000

1955189.130.040107.7620.38Industria23.39.054.374.755.125.535.946.416.887.347.818.439.05

1960196.270.038112.0421.99Transportes20.37.883.814.144.464.825.185.585.996.406.817.347.88

1965201.010.024118.1523.75Otros sectores25.810.024.845.265.676.136.587.097.618.138.659.3310.02


1975211.030.026130.2727.49Prdidas27.310.605.125.566.006.486.967.518.068.609.159.8710.60

1980216.320.025136.4229.51Total:10038.8318.7620.3821.9923.7525.5127.4929.5131.5033.5336.1638.83

1985220.250.018143.0231.5018.7620.3821.9923.7525.5127.4929.5131.5033.5336.1638.83

1990224.250.018149.5233.53

1995228.380.018158.3336.16

2000232.640.019166.9138.83

307.41


% de Cambio


2000/19502000/19502000/195019500.738Industria71.63Industria23.323.3


19600.780Otros sectores79.31Otros sectores25.825.8


19700.815Prdidas83.92Prdidas27.327.3

19750.833Total:307.40

19800.848

19850.863

19900.882

19950.904

20000.921

GIIIA

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIVA

Paso 1

Grupo IVAAlemania, Italia y JapnGrupo IVA





1950199.710.01120.3524.042000 - ref.19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000

1955208.530.044124.7826.02Industria2912.456.977.558.088.629.159.7310.3110.7811.2611.6812.45

1960217.360.042128.1327.85Transportes19.58.374.695.075.435.806.156.546.937.257.577.858.37

1965224.30.03132.5029.72Otros sectores2410.305.776.246.687.137.578.058.538.929.319.6710.30


1975239.790.04139.8733.54Prdidas25.811.086.206.717.197.678.148.659.179.5910.0110.3911.08

1980248.340.04143.1135.54Total:10042.9324.0426.0227.8529.7231.5633.5435.5437.1838.8140.2842.93

1985254.110.02146.3137.1824.0426.0227.8529.7231.5633.5435.5437.1838.8140.2842.93

1990259.890.02149.3338.81

1995263.710.01152.7440.28

2000267.540.01160.4642.93

367.47


% de Cambio






19700.820Prdidas94.81Prdidas25.825.8

19750.841Total:367.46

19800.861

19850.872

19900.891

19950.909

20000.924

GIVA

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

Paso 1-sin

Paso 1 - Sntesis

Consumo energtico total por gruposConsumo energtico total por gruposConsumo energtico total por sectoresConsumo energtico per capita por gruposndice de desarrollo humano supuesto por gruposPoblacin por grupos

Caso 0 - ControlRestoCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - Control

Total anual por gruposConsumo energtico per cpita GJ/hab -referencia-GJ/habIDHMillones de habitantes

GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVARestoConsumo totalGIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVARestoGIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVARestoGIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto

19502.7216.000.5318.7559.7418.7624.04140.5410.03150.571950399.37125.1210.0319502.7216.000.5318.7559.7418.7624.0410.03SI35.2240.0644.8749.9455.0561.4468.6274.5379.2482.8590.78682.59195023.1412.8426.98103.40325.90103.22120.3525.1219500.250.410.600.720.760.740.75sn1950117.411246.3419.53181.33183.30181.77199.71399.372528.76

11.7071.182.3491.30245.5878.28100.1243.85644.3519553.1319.590.6426.9063.0520.3826.0211.89ST29.1532.0934.9838.0741.1845.8750.8255.3559.5365.5373.69526.25195523.1713.5026.77139.24315.41107.76124.7824.4419550.290.450.620.730.780.770.77sn1955135.111451.4823.91193.20199.90189.13208.53486.77

19553.1319.590.6426.9063.0520.3826.02159.7111.89171.601955486.77224.43611.8919603.5423.210.7735.0466.3721.9927.8513.87OS35.1940.3745.5250.9856.4763.4671.3378.0583.4387.7396.20708.73196022.9714.0027.28170.10306.56112.04128.1324.3219600.320.480.640.740.790.780.79sn1960154.101657.7328.23206.00216.50196.27217.36570.17

13.3485.602.82123.88258.8484.74107.7451.53728.4919653.9527.610.8343.3169.6923.7529.7216.68UNE3.223.714.234.765.326.036.807.508.118.679.5567.89196522.4014.8125.32200.36301.19118.15132.5025.3719650.340.510.660.760.810.800.80sn1965176.321864.2132.78216.16231.38201.01224.30657.61

19603.5423.210.7735.0466.3721.9927.85178.7713.87192.641960570.174824.32213.8719704.4032.021.0351.5673.0225.5131.5619.44P37.7643.4649.1655.1061.0868.1476.3082.7387.4888.7697.00746.98197021.9615.3227.76227.11296.48123.97136.5126.9019700.370.540.680.770.830.820.82sn1970200.362089.9237.10227.03246.29205.77231.20722.59

14.98101.643.20156.70272.1291.48115.1461.10816.3619755.3240.381.4156.9379.8627.4933.5424.31197523.5417.6134.88240.44307.17130.27139.8730.0519750.400.570.700.780.840.830.84sn1975226.022292.8740.43236.77259.99211.03239.79809.03

19653.9527.610.8343.3169.6923.7529.72198.8616.68215.541965657.612925.3716.6819806.3648.861.7865.1386.7029.5135.5426.12Total anual:140.54159.70178.77198.85219.09244.94273.87298.15317.79333.54367.22198024.8519.6540.34264.22316.77136.42143.1129.0519800.430.610.710.800.860.850.86sn1980255.922486.4644.12246.50273.70216.32248.34899.28

16.70119.263.72189.74285.4298.52122.5672.24908.1619857.6558.292.2768.6492.6131.5037.1829.01Total:2732.45198525.7121.7048.61269.36321.91143.02146.3129.6919850.450.630.730.810.880.860.87sn1985297.512686.3546.70254.83287.69220.25254.11977.02

19704.4032.021.0351.5673.0225.5131.56219.1019.44238.541970722.59426.919.4419908.8667.992.7467.31101.0633.5338.8134.81totales de referencia slo consideran 11 aos, no 50199026.1023.5655.38257.05334.98149.52149.3333.0019900.480.660.770.800.900.880.89sn1990339.442885.9549.48261.86301.69224.25259.891054.89

19.44144.804.88216.98305.76106.00130.2087.501015.56199510.4683.773.3645.53114.0036.1640.2841.95%199527.0526.8564.54174.91362.49158.33152.7438.0019950.500.690.780.790.920.900.91sn1995386.663119.9052.06260.30314.49228.38263.711103.94

19755.3240.381.4156.9379.8627.4933.54244.9324.31269.241975809.02930.0524.31200012.0998.964.0541.89128.4738.8342.9351.97SI682.5924.98%200027.9429.5274.23162.43392.49166.91160.4645.0020000.520.710.750.790.930.920.92sn2000432.723352.4654.56257.90327.32232.64267.541154.956080.09

23.36178.486.38244.12333.12114.00138.16100.871138.49ST526.2519.26%

19806.3648.861.7865.1386.7029.5135.54273.8826.12300.001980899.277429.0526.12Totales68.48516.6819.41520.99934.57307.41367.47280.09OS708.7325.94%

28.02214.308.10267.54358.62122.02145.44110.261254.30Total:3015.10con restoUNE67.892.48%

19857.6558.292.2768.6492.6131.5037.18298.1429.01327.151985977.01729.6929.012735.01sin restoP746.9827.34%

33.02252.5610.02271.90387.34130.06151.98127.641364.52totales de referencia slo consideran 11 aos, no 50

19908.8667.992.7467.31101.0633.5338.81320.3034.81355.1119901054.89123334.81Total:2732.45

38.64303.5212.20225.68430.12139.38158.18153.521461.24

199510.4683.773.3645.53114.0036.1640.28333.5641.95375.5119951103.9433841.95

45.10365.4614.82174.84484.94149.98166.42187.851589.41

200012.0998.964.0541.89128.4738.8342.93367.2251.97419.1920001154.9534551.97

Totales312.782353.4887.892483.674296.431421.871703.411276.4613935.99

Total:13935.99

% de P total2.24%16.89%0.63%17.82%30.83%10.20%12.22%9.16%100.00%

% de P 19501.81%10.63%0.35%12.45%39.68%12.46%15.97%6.66%100.00%

% de P 20002.88%23.61%0.97%9.99%30.65%9.26%10.24%12.40%100.00%

GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto

Paso 2-reservas

Paso 2

Caso 0 - Control

Reservas Energticas Mundiales

1950-estimado y transferido a partir del 2000

Energticos Naturales

La energa solar4000al ao

La energa elica15al ao4063total al ao

La energa hidrulica45al ao

La energa geotrmica3al ao

El trabajo animalX4118con biomasa, sin hidrulica

Combustibles

Hidrgenoreferido a los HC

Carbn144340reservas ltimas recuperables

Petrleo y sus derivados15623reservas ltimas recuperables

Gas Natural6760reservas ltimas recuperables

Biomasa tradicional90al ao*

Biomasa moderna10al ao100total al ao

Energticos nucleares

Uranio1930reservas conocidas - 4.2 Mton

Total:373153

* uso 90 aqu y en el C1 80, porque considero que la deforestacin al menos eso ha

disminuido en la capacidad del ecosistema global de proveer biomasa tradiconal

Paso 2-cesta

Paso 2

Cesta energtica por grupoCesta energtica por grupo


Porcentajes establecidosPorcentajes establecidos

1950 - %2000 - %

GrupoPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtrasGrupoPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

I05.500094.5100.00I33.551204.545100.00

IIB1.5631.50133100.00IIB41.2713.7220.440.6716.97100.00

IIIB1.5631.50133100.00IIIB253752.90.130100.00

IVB18210115100.00IVB31.525.15304.717.65100.00

IIA28271801314100.00IIA38.228.0619.55.32.756.19100.00

IIIA28271801314100.00IIIA41.514.118173.55.9100.00

IVA18210115100.00IVA48.415.222.49.41.82.8100.00

Valores dependientes

GIPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

195005.500094.5100

0

19553.355.451.200.4589.55100

0

19606.75.42.400.984.6100

0

196510.055.353.601.3579.65100

0

197013.45.34.801.874.7100

0

197516.755.25602.2569.75100

0

198020.15.27.202.764.8100

0

198523.455.158.403.1559.85100

0

199026.85.19.603.654.9100

0

199530.155.0510.804.0549.95100

0

200033.551204.545100

GIIBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

19501.5631.50133100

0

19555.47758.0723.3940.061.631.397100

0

19609.45453.1445.2880.122.229.794100

0

196513.43148.2167.1820.182.828.191100

0

197017.40843.2889.0760.243.426.588100

0

197521.38538.3610.970.3424.985100

0

198025.36233.43212.8640.364.623.382100

0

198529.33928.50414.7580.425.221.779100

0

199033.31623.57616.6520.485.820.176100

0

199537.29318.64818.5460.546.418.573100

0

200041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

GIIIBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

19501.5631.50133100

0

19553.8560.41.850.290.9132.7100

0

19606.257.82.20.580.8232.4100

0

19658.5555.22.550.870.7332.1100

0

197010.952.62.91.160.6431.8100

0

197513.25503.251.450.5531.5100

0

198015.647.43.61.740.4631.2100

0

198517.9544.83.952.030.3730.9100

0

199020.342.24.32.320.2830.6100

0

199522.6539.64.652.610.1930.3100

0

2000253752.90.130100

GIVBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

195018210115100

0

19554.0576.3153.90.47114.265100

0

19607.170.636.80.94113.53100

0

196510.1564.9459.71.41112.795100

0

197013.259.2612.61.88112.06100

0

197516.2553.57515.52.35111.325100

0

198019.347.8918.42.82110.59100

0

198522.3542.20521.33.2919.855100

0

199025.436.5224.23.7619.12100

0

199528.4530.83527.14.2318.385100

0

200031.525.15304.717.65100

GIIAPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

195028271801314100

0

195529.0227.10618.150.5311.97513.219100

0

196030.0427.21218.31.0610.9512.438100

0

196531.0627.31818.451.599.92511.657100

0

197032.0827.42418.62.128.910.876100

0

197533.127.5318.752.657.87510.095100

0

198034.1227.63618.93.186.859.314100

0

198535.1427.74219.053.715.8258.533100

0

199036.1627.84819.24.244.87.752100

0

199537.1827.95419.354.773.7756.971100

0

200038.228.0619.55.32.756.19100

GIIIAPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

195028271801314100

0

195529.3525.71181.712.0513.19100

0

196030.724.42183.411.112.38100

0

196532.0523.13185.110.1511.57100

0

197033.421.84186.89.210.76100

0

197534.7520.55188.58.259.95100

0

198036.119.261810.27.39.14100

0

198537.4517.971811.96.358.33100

0

199038.816.681813.65.47.52100

0

199540.1515.391815.34.456.71100

0

200041.514.118173.55.9100

GIVAPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

195018210115100

0

19555.7475.323.140.941.0813.78100

0

196010.4868.645.281.881.1612.56100

0

196515.2261.967.422.821.2411.34100

0

197019.9655.289.563.761.3210.12100

0

197524.748.611.74.71.48.9100

0

198029.4441.9213.845.641.487.68100

0

198534.1835.2415.986.581.566.46100

0

199038.9228.5618.127.521.645.24100

0

199543.6621.8820.268.461.724.02100

0

200048.415.222.49.41.82.8100

Supuestos de % en Otros globalmente - Constantes

%%

19502000

-especulacin--referencia--Media-

Biomasa tradicional10080.3890.19

Biomasa moderna07.313.655

Solar fotovoltica00.950.475

Solar Trmico03.871.935

Elico03.651.8256.155

Mini hidrulica y Mareomotriz02.011.005

Geotermia01.830.915

100100

OtrosBiomasa tradicionalBiomasa modernaSolar fotovolticaSolar trmicoElicoMinihidrulica y mareomotrizGeotermia

1950100000000100

195598.0380.7310.0950.3870.3650.2010.183100

196096.0761.4620.190.7740.730.4020.366100

196594.1142.1930.2851.1611.0950.6030.549100

197092.1522.9240.381.5481.460.8040.732100

197590.193.6550.4751.9351.8251.0050.915100

198088.2284.3860.572.3222.191.2061.098100

198586.2665.1170.6652.7092.5551.4071.281100

199084.3045.8480.763.0962.921.6081.464100

199582.3426.5790.8553.4833.2851.8091.647100

200080.387.310.953.873.652.011.83100

Paso 3a

Paso 3Caso 0 - ControlPaso 3

Caso 0 - ControlEvolucin de la cesta energticaCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - ControlCaso 0 - Control

GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIA - porcentaje constanteGIVAResto

GIPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosTotal anualPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosTotal anualPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosTotal anualPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosTotal anualPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosTotal anualPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosTotal anualPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosTotal anualPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosTotal anual

19500.000.150.000.000.002.5719500.000.150.000.0000.002.572.720.2410.080.240.000.165.2816.000.010.330.010.000.0050.170.530.1915.380.190.000.192.8118.7516.7316.1310.750.007.778.3659.745.255.073.380.002.442.6318.760.2419.710.240.000.243.6124.040.000.550.000.000.009.4810.03

0.210.640.080.000.0310.7519550.100.170.040.0000.012.803.131.0711.380.660.010.316.1519.590.020.390.010.000.0060.210.641.0920.531.050.130.273.8426.9018.3017.0911.440.337.558.3363.055.985.243.670.352.462.6920.381.4919.600.820.240.283.5926.020.400.650.140.000.0510.6511.89

19550.100.170.040.0000.012.8019600.240.190.080.0000.032.993.542.1912.331.230.030.516.9223.210.050.450.020.000.0060.250.772.4924.752.380.330.354.7435.0419.9418.0612.150.707.278.2666.376.755.373.960.752.442.7221.992.9219.121.470.520.323.5027.850.930.750.330.000.1211.7313.87

0.680.720.250.000.0911.6019650.400.210.140.0000.053.153.953.7113.311.980.050.777.7827.610.070.460.020.010.0060.270.834.4028.134.200.610.435.5443.3121.6519.0412.861.116.928.1269.697.615.494.281.212.412.7523.754.5218.412.210.840.373.3729.721.680.890.600.000.2313.2916.68

19600.240.190.080.000.032.9919700.590.230.210.0000.083.294.405.5713.862.910.081.098.5132.020.110.540.030.010.0070.331.036.8130.556.500.970.526.2251.5623.4220.0313.581.556.507.9473.028.525.574.591.732.352.7425.516.3017.453.021.190.423.1931.562.601.030.930.000.3514.5219.44

1.270.800.450.000.1712.2819750.890.280.320.0000.123.715.328.6415.494.430.121.6210.0940.380.190.710.050.020.0080.441.419.2530.508.821.340.576.4556.9326.4321.9914.972.126.298.0679.869.555.654.952.342.272.7427.498.2816.303.921.580.472.9933.544.071.281.460.000.5516.9624.31

19650.400.210.140.000.053.1519801.280.330.460.0000.174.126.3612.3916.336.290.182.2511.4248.860.280.840.060.030.0080.561.7812.5731.1911.981.840.656.9065.1329.5823.9616.392.765.948.0886.7010.655.685.313.012.152.7029.5110.4614.904.922.000.532.7335.545.251.361.880.000.7116.9326.12

1.970.890.710.000.2712.8719851.790.390.640.0000.244.587.6517.1016.618.600.243.0312.6958.290.411.020.090.050.0080.702.2715.3428.9714.622.260.696.7668.6432.5425.6917.643.445.397.9092.6111.805.665.673.752.002.6231.5012.7113.105.942.450.582.4037.186.801.492.440.000.9117.3629.01

19700.590.230.210.000.083.2919902.370.450.850.0000.324.868.8622.6516.0311.320.333.9413.7267.990.561.160.120.060.0080.842.7417.1024.5816.292.530.676.1467.3136.5428.1419.404.284.857.83101.0613.015.596.044.561.812.5233.5315.1011.087.032.920.642.0338.819.331.783.340.001.2519.1134.81

2.961.031.060.000.4014.0019953.150.531.130.0000.425.2210.4631.2415.6215.540.455.3615.5683.770.761.330.160.090.0061.023.3612.9514.0412.341.930.463.8245.5342.3931.8722.065.444.307.95114.0014.525.576.515.531.612.4336.1617.598.818.163.410.691.6240.2812.652.124.530.001.7020.9541.95

19750.890.280.320.000.123.7120004.050.601.450.0000.545.4412.0940.8413.5820.230.596.9316.7998.961.011.500.200.120.0041.224.0513.2010.5412.571.970.423.2041.8949.0836.0525.056.813.537.95128.4716.115.486.996.601.362.2938.8320.786.539.624.040.771.2042.9317.412.606.240.002.3423.3951.97

4.341.221.550.000.5815.66

19801.280.330.460.000.174.12

6.141.452.200.000.8317.40

19851.790.390.640.000.244.58

8.341.692.990.001.1218.89

19902.370.450.850.000.324.86

11.061.963.960.001.4920.18

19953.150.531.130.000.425.22

14.412.275.160.001.9421.33

20004.050.601.450.000.545.44

Totales GI:66.2516.2123.730.008.90197.68

Total GI:312.78

GIIBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtros

19500.2410.080.240.000.165.28

2.6342.911.810.020.9522.86

19551.0711.380.660.010.316.15

6.5347.423.780.081.6526.13

19602.1912.331.230.030.516.92

11.8151.296.420.162.5729.40

19653.7113.311.980.050.777.78

18.5654.359.780.253.7232.59

19705.5713.862.910.081.098.51

28.4258.7014.670.405.4137.20

19758.6415.494.430.121.6210.09

42.0563.6521.430.597.7343.03

198012.3916.336.290.182.2511.42

58.9965.9029.780.8410.5648.24

198517.1016.618.600.243.0312.69

79.5165.2939.851.1413.9552.83

199022.6516.0311.320.333.9413.72

107.7863.3053.721.5618.6158.55

199531.2415.6215.540.455.3615.56

144.1658.4071.532.0924.5864.70

200040.8413.5820.230.596.9316.79

Totales GIIB:646.09725.85326.189.21115.68530.46

Total GIIB:2353.48

GIIIB

Petrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosFraccin de participacin anual de cada energtico dentro de cada grupoFraccin de participacin anual de cada energticoFraccin de participacin anual de cada energticoFraccin de participacin anual de cada energticoFraccin de participacin anual de cada energticoFraccin de participacin anual de cada energticoFraccin de participacin anual de cada energticoFraccin de participacin anual de cada energtico

19500.010.330.010.000.0050.17= cesta energtica (ya estabilecida)

0.071.440.040.000.020.77GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto de pases no considerados

19550.020.390.010.000.0060.21

0.141.660.060.010.020.92PCGNNHOTotal anualPCGNNHOTotal anualPCGNNHOTotal anualPCGNNHOTotal anualPCGNNHOTotal anualPCGNNHOTotal anualPCGNNHOTotal anualPCGNNHOTotal anual

19600.050.450.020.000.0060.2519500.000.060.000.0000.0000.951.0019500.020.630.020.0000.0100.331.0019500.020.630.020.000.010.331.0019500.010.820.010.000.010.151.0019500.280.270.180.000.130.141.0019500.280.270.180.000.130.141.0019500.010.820.010.000.010.151.0019500.000.060.000.00000.000.951.00

0.241.810.080.020.021.0319550.030.050.010.0000.0050.901.0019550.050.580.030.0010.0160.311.0019550.040.600.020.000.010.331.0019550.040.760.040.000.010.141.0019550.290.270.180.010.120.131.0019550.290.260.180.020.120.131.0019550.060.750.030.010.010.141.0019550.030.050.010.00000.000.901.00

19650.070.460.020.010.0060.2719600.070.050.020.0000.0090.851.0019600.090.530.050.0010.0220.301.0019600.060.580.020.010.010.321.0019600.070.710.070.010.010.141.0019600.300.270.180.010.110.121.0019600.310.240.180.030.110.121.0019600.100.690.050.020.010.131.0019600.070.050.020.00000.010.851.00

0.372.000.100.040.031.1919650.100.050.040.0000.0140.801.0019650.130.480.070.0020.0280.281.0019650.090.550.030.010.010.321.0019650.100.650.100.010.010.131.0019650.310.270.180.020.100.121.0019650.320.230.180.050.100.121.0019650.150.620.070.030.010.111.0019650.100.050.040.00000.010.801.00

19700.110.540.030.010.0070.3319700.130.050.050.0000.0180.751.0019700.170.430.090.0020.0340.271.0019700.110.530.030.010.010.321.0019700.130.590.130.020.010.121.0019700.320.270.190.020.090.111.0019700.330.220.180.070.090.111.0019700.200.550.100.040.010.101.0019700.130.050.050.00000.020.751.00

0.602.490.150.060.031.5419750.170.050.060.0000.0230.701.0019750.210.380.110.0030.0400.251.0019750.130.500.030.010.010.321.0019750.160.540.160.020.010.111.0019750.330.280.190.030.080.101.0019750.350.210.180.090.080.101.0019750.250.490.120.050.010.091.0019750.170.050.060.00000.020.701.00

19750.190.710.050.020.0080.4419800.200.050.070.0000.0270.651.0019800.250.330.130.0040.0460.231.0019800.160.470.040.020.000.311.0019800.190.480.180.030.010.111.0019800.340.280.190.030.070.091.0019800.360.190.180.100.070.091.0019800.290.420.140.060.010.081.0019800.200.050.070.00000.030.651.00

0.933.100.220.100.032.0019850.230.050.080.0000.0320.601.0019850.290.290.150.0040.0520.221.0019850.180.450.040.020.000.311.0019850.220.420.210.030.010.101.0019850.350.280.190.040.060.091.0019850.370.180.180.120.060.081.0019850.340.350.160.070.020.061.0019850.230.050.080.00000.030.601.00

19800.280.840.060.030.0080.5619900.270.050.100.0000.0360.551.0019900.330.240.170.0050.0580.201.0019900.200.420.040.020.000.311.0019900.250.370.240.040.010.091.0019900.360.280.190.040.050.081.0019900.390.170.180.140.050.081.0019900.390.290.180.080.020.051.0019900.270.050.100.00000.040.551.00

1.373.720.310.150.032.5119950.300.050.110.0000.0410.501.0019950.370.190.190.0050.0640.191.0019950.230.400.050.030.000.301.0019950.280.310.270.040.010.081.0019950.370.280.190.050.040.071.0019950.400.150.180.150.040.071.0019950.440.220.200.080.020.041.0019950.300.050.110.00000.040.501.00

19850.411.020.090.050.0080.7020000.340.050.120.0000.0450.451.0020000.410.140.200.0060.0700.171.0020000.250.370.050.030.000.301.0020000.320.250.300.050.010.081.0020000.380.280.200.050.030.061.0020000.420.140.180.170.040.061.0020000.480.150.220.090.020.031.0020000.340.050.120.00000.050.451.00

1.934.350.410.220.033.08

19900.561.160.120.060.0080.84

2.634.970.550.300.033.71

19950.761.330.160.090.0061.02

3.555.660.720.410.024.47

20001.011.500.200.120.0041.22

Totales GIIIB:15.2939.923.401.720.3427.22

Total GIIIB:87.89

GIVBPaso 3

Petrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosCaso 0Fraccin de contribucin de cada energtico por grupo dentro del consumo energtico total anual por energtico

19500.1915.380.190.000.192.81Media en 50 aos de utilizacin de Biomasa tradicional:90.19%

2.5571.812.470.250.9113.30GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto

19551.0920.531.050.130.273.84

7.1590.556.860.911.2417.16PetrleoCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosBio. Trad.PetrleoCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosBio. Trad.PetrleoCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosBio. Trad.PetrleoCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosBio. Trad.PetrleoCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosBio. Trad.PetrleoCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosBio. Trad.PetrleoCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosBio. Trad.PetrleoCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosBio. Trad.

19602.4924.752.380.330.354.7419500.0000.0020.0000.0000.0000.0740.0660.01060.14960.01620.00000.01480.15120.13640.00040.00500.00050.00000.00050.00500.00450.00830.22810.01270.00000.01740.08060.07270.7380.2390.7260.0000.7190.2400.2160.2320.0750.2280.0000.2260.0750.0680.0110.2920.0160.0000.0220.1030.0930.0000.0080.0000.0000.0000.2720.245

13.77105.7513.171.881.5720.5619550.0040.0020.0020.0000.0010.0730.0660.03770.15160.03730.01100.02860.16080.14500.00090.00520.00070.00170.00050.00550.00490.03830.27360.05880.11870.02460.10030.09050.6430.2280.6420.3140.6900.2180.1960.2100.0700.2060.3250.2240.0700.0630.0520.2610.0460.2300.0260.0940.0850.0140.0090.0080.0000.0050.2780.251

19654.4028.134.200.610.435.5419600.0070.0020.0040.0000.0030.0730.0660.06180.15230.05680.01190.04620.16820.15170.00130.00550.00080.00190.00060.00610.00550.07010.30550.11020.14100.03170.11530.10400.5620.2230.5620.3010.6570.2010.1810.1900.0660.1830.3200.2210.0660.0600.0820.2360.0680.2240.0290.0850.0770.0260.0090.0150.0000.0110.2850.257

22.40117.3621.403.161.9023.5219650.0090.0020.0050.0000.0050.0710.0640.08420.15490.07540.01300.06910.17580.15860.00160.00530.00080.00190.00050.00600.00540.09980.32730.15980.15970.03870.12520.11290.4920.2220.4890.2900.6180.1840.1660.1730.0640.1630.3170.2150.0620.0560.1030.2140.0840.2190.0330.0760.0690.0380.0100.0230.0000.0200.3000.271

19706.8130.556.500.970.526.2219700.0110.0030.0070.0000.0070.0700.0630.10340.15530.09150.01390.09630.18210.16430.00210.00610.00090.00220.00060.00700.00630.12620.34230.20450.17540.04560.13300.12000.4340.2240.4280.2800.5750.1700.1530.1580.0620.1450.3140.2080.0590.0530.1170.1950.0950.2150.0370.0680.0620.0480.0120.0290.0000.0310.3110.280

32.11122.1130.644.612.1725.3319750.0130.0030.0080.0000.0100.0720.0650.12830.16800.11380.01610.13590.19620.17690.00280.00760.00120.00270.00070.00860.00780.13740.33090.22670.17820.04790.12540.11310.3930.2380.3850.2820.5290.1570.1410.1420.0610.1270.3110.1910.0530.0480.1230.1770.1010.2100.0400.0580.0520.0610.0140.0370.0000.0460.3300.297

19759.2530.508.821.340.576.4519800.0160.0030.0100.0000.0140.0770.0700.15030.17270.13290.01790.18120.21380.19280.00340.00890.00140.00320.00070.01040.00940.15240.32970.25340.18710.05250.12910.11640.3590.2530.3470.2810.4790.1510.1360.1290.0600.1120.3070.1740.0500.0460.1270.1570.1040.2040.0420.0510.0460.0640.0140.0400.0000.0570.3170.286

43.64123.3841.626.352.4426.6919850.0180.0040.0120.0000.0190.0830.0750.17360.17880.15460.02010.23580.23070.20810.00410.01090.00160.00380.00070.01270.01150.15580.31170.26270.18540.05340.12290.11090.3300.2760.3170.2820.4200.1440.1300.1200.0610.1020.3080.1560.0480.0430.1290.1410.1070.2010.0450.0440.0390.0690.0160.0440.0000.0710.3150.285

198012.5731.1911.981.840.656.9019900.0200.0050.0130.0000.0240.0850.0770.19420.18050.17580.02220.29220.24040.21680.00480.01300.00180.00430.00060.01470.01330.14650.27680.25300.17240.04990.10760.09700.3130.3170.3010.2920.3590.1370.1240.1120.0630.0940.3110.1340.0440.0400.1290.1250.1090.1990.0470.0360.0320.0800.0200.0520.0000.0930.3350.302

55.82120.3253.218.192.6827.3219950.0230.0070.0160.0000.0290.0890.0800.23100.19560.22060.02690.36840.26570.23960.00560.01670.00220.00520.00040.01740.01570.09580.17570.17520.11430.03130.06520.05880.3130.3990.3130.3230.2960.1360.1220.1070.0700.0920.3280.1110.0410.0370.1300.1100.1160.2020.0480.0280.0250.0940.0270.0640.0000.1170.3580.323

198515.3428.9714.622.260.696.7620000.0250.0080.0180.0000.0340.0880.0800.25140.17660.24570.02950.43570.27310.24630.00620.01950.00250.00580.00030.01980.01780.08120.13710.15260.09780.02630.05210.04700.3020.4690.3040.3380.2220.1290.1170.0990.0710.0850.3280.0850.0370.0340.1280.0850.1170.2010.0490.0200.0180.1070.0340.0760.0000.1470.3800.343

64.88107.1061.829.582.7225.81

199017.1024.5816.292.530.676.14

60.1077.2457.268.912.2619.91

199512.9514.0412.341.930.463.82

52.3049.1549.817.791.7514.04

200013.2010.5412.571.970.423.20

Totales GIVB:450.111243.94429.1965.5324.84270.07

Total GIVB:2483.67

GIIASumario de participacin = verificacin

Petrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtros

195016.7316.1310.750.007.7668.3619501.001.001.000.001.001.00

70.0566.4444.390.6730.6333.4019551.001.001.001.001.001.00

195518.3017.0911.440.337.5508.3319601.001.001.001.001.001.00

76.4770.3047.182.0829.6433.1819651.001.001.001.001.001.00

196019.9418.0612.150.707.2688.2619701.001.001.001.001.001.00

83.1774.2050.013.6228.3732.7619751.001.001.001.001.001.00

196521.6519.0412.861.116.9178.1219801.001.001.001.001.001.00

90.1478.1352.885.3126.8332.1319851.001.001.001.001.001.00

197023.4220.0313.581.556.4997.9419901.001.001.001.001.001.00

99.7284.0257.117.3325.5832.0119951.001.001.001.001.001.00

197526.4321.9914.972.126.2898.0620001.001.001.001.001.001.00

112.0391.8962.729.7524.4632.27

198029.5823.9616.392.765.9398.08

124.2599.3068.0612.3922.6731.96

198532.5425.6917.643.445.3957.90

138.17107.6774.0915.4420.4931.47

199036.5428.1419.404.284.8517.83

157.86120.0282.9319.4518.3131.56

199542.3931.8722.065.444.3047.95

182.92135.8394.2224.4915.6731.80

200049.0836.0525.056.813.5337.95

Totales GIIA:1451.371185.85809.88129.06308.95411.33

Total GIIA:4296.43

GIIIA

Petrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtros

19505.255.073.380.002.442.63

22.4720.6114.090.699.7910.63

19555.985.243.670.352.462.69

25.4621.2215.252.199.7910.82

19606.755.373.960.752.442.72

28.7321.7316.473.929.7010.94

19657.615.494.281.212.412.75

32.2622.1317.735.899.5210.99

19708.525.574.591.732.352.74

36.1522.4419.088.149.2310.96

19759.555.654.952.342.272.74

40.4122.6720.5210.698.8410.86

198010.655.685.313.012.152.70

44.9022.6921.9613.528.3110.64

198511.805.665.673.752.002.62

49.6122.5123.4116.627.6210.29

199013.015.596.044.561.812.52

55.0622.3225.0920.196.849.90

199514.525.576.515.531.612.43

61.2722.0827.0024.275.949.43

200016.115.486.996.601.362.29

Totales GIIIA:506.08280.75255.94135.94108.88134.29

Total GIIIA:1421.87

GIVAPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtros

19500.2419.710.240.000.243.61

3.4778.622.110.491.0414.38

19551.4919.600.820.240.283.59

8.8277.434.581.541.2114.17

19602.9219.121.470.520.323.50

14.8875.067.352.721.3813.74

19654.5218.412.210.840.373.37

21.6571.7210.444.051.5713.13

19706.3017.453.021.190.423.19

29.1767.4913.885.531.7712.36

19758.2816.303.921.580.472.99

37.4962.4017.697.161.9911.43

198010.4614.904.922.000.532.73

46.3456.0021.728.902.2110.26

198512.7113.105.942.450.582.40

55.6348.3725.9510.732.438.87

199015.1011.087.032.920.642.03

65.3839.7930.3912.652.667.31

199517.598.818.163.410.691.62

76.7330.6835.5514.892.935.64

200020.786.539.624.040.771.20

Totales GIVA:459.96772.58217.0187.8424.51141.51

Total GIVA:1703.41

Resto - Supuesto - % igual que el GI


19500.000.550.000.000.009.48

0.802.400.290.000.1140.26

19550.400.650.140.000.0510.65

2.662.790.950.000.3644.77

19600.930.750.330.000.1211.73

5.213.281.870.000.7050.04

19651.680.890.600.000.2313.29

8.563.853.070.001.1555.62

19702.601.030.930.000.3514.52

13.354.614.780.001.7962.95

19754.071.281.460.000.5516.96

18.655.276.680.002.5067.77

19805.251.361.880.000.7116.93

24.115.708.640.003.2468.58

19856.801.492.440.000.9117.36

32.266.5411.560.004.3372.95

19909.331.783.340.001.2519.11

43.957.7915.740.005.9080.13

199512.652.124.530.001.7020.95

60.129.4321.530.008.0888.68

200017.412.606.240.002.3423.39

Totales Resto:270.7966.1697.000.0036.37806.13

Total Resto:1276.46

Total en el consumo:13935.99

Petrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtrosTotales anuales

195022.6667.4014.810.0010.8034.91150.57

102.24284.8765.282.1343.48146.35

195528.4675.0417.841.0710.9438.26171.60

127.93312.1178.916.8044.00158.74

196035.5081.0221.622.3411.0641.11192.64

159.07333.9395.8112.3244.48170.75

196544.0385.9526.293.8311.1944.27215.54

195.92350.42116.1118.7044.98182.03

197053.9389.2631.775.5311.3046.75238.54

242.48362.90141.3826.0746.38196.35

197567.3192.1938.927.5111.8951.43269.24

299.55373.57172.4334.6548.58209.72

198082.4794.6047.299.8212.4053.43300.00

361.92375.09205.8743.9950.52216.91

198598.4992.9455.6512.1812.8655.03327.15

430.32363.52240.0853.7352.70224.18

1990116.6788.8164.3914.6813.4957.06355.11

503.82337.40269.6263.0656.09231.25

1995135.2579.8870.4216.8414.5558.57375.51

595.45313.49305.5273.9460.90240.10

2000162.4876.8682.3420.1315.9061.49419.19

3865.944331.262162.33429.31628.472518.68

27.74%31.08%15.52%3.08%4.51%18.07%

Total M:13935.99

en 50 aos

Por gurpo por combustible - % sobre el consumo total en 50 aos

Mayores consumidores de determinado combustible en el perido

GrupoPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtros

I1.710.371.100.001.427.85

IIB16.7116.7615.082.1518.4121.06

IIIB0.400.920.160.400.051.08

IVB11.6428.7219.8515.263.9510.72

IIA37.5427.3837.4530.0649.1616.33

IIIA13.096.4811.8431.6717.325.33

IVA11.9017.8410.0420.463.905.62

Resto7.001.534.490.005.7932.01

100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00

Paso 3a

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Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelectricidad

Otros

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica - GI

Paso 4a

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Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelectricidad

Otros

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica - GIIB

Paso 4a-graf

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Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelectricidad

Otros

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica - GIIIB

Paso 4b - IA

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Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelectricidad

Otros

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica - GIVB

Paso 4b - IA2

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Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelectricidad

Otros

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica - GIIA

Paso 4b - IA3

000000

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Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelectricidad

Otros

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica - GIIIA

Paso 4b - graf

000000

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Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelectricidad

Otros

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica - GIVA

Paso 4c - prev

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Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelectricidad

Otros

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica - Resto

Paso 4c - C1

Paso 4a

Recursos energticos Restantes

Caso 0 - Control

Reservas Energticas Mundiales


RUPRUPRUPRUPal aoal ao

1562314434067601930454118

RUP =Reservas ltimas probadas

al ao =Se refiere a la cantidad de energa que se estima posible obtener a lo largo de un ao a nivel mundial

Consumo Energtico MundialEste apartado hay que diferenciarloConsumo Mundial por energtico

Petrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtros

195022.6615600.3467.40144272.6014.816745.190.001930.0010.8034.2034.914083.09195022.6667.4014.810.0010.8034.91

102.2415498.11284.87143987.7365.286679.912.131927.8743.48181.52146.3520443.65195528.4675.0417.841.0710.9438.26

195528.4615469.6475.04143912.6917.846662.081.071926.8010.9434.0638.264079.74196035.5081.0221.622.3411.0641.11

127.9315341.71312.11143600.5878.916583.176.801920.0044.00181.00158.7420431.26196544.0385.9526.293.8311.1944.27

196035.5015306.2181.02143519.5721.626561.552.341917.6611.0633.9441.114076.89197053.9389.2631.775.5311.3046.75

159.0715147.14333.93143185.6495.816465.7412.321905.3444.48180.52170.7520419.25197567.3192.1938.927.5111.8951.43

196544.0315103.1185.95143099.6926.296439.453.831901.5211.1933.8144.274073.73198082.4794.6047.299.8212.4053.43

195.9214907.19350.42142749.27116.116323.3518.701882.8144.98180.02182.0320407.97198598.4992.9455.6512.1812.8655.03

197053.9314853.2689.26142660.0131.776291.585.531877.2811.3033.7046.754071.251990116.6788.8164.3914.6813.4957.06

242.4814610.78362.90142297.11141.386150.2026.071851.2146.38178.62196.3520393.651995135.2579.8870.4216.8414.5558.57

197567.3114543.4892.19142204.9238.926111.277.511843.7011.8933.1151.434066.572000162.4876.8682.3420.1315.9061.49

299.5514243.93373.57141831.35172.435938.8534.651809.0648.58176.42209.7220380.28

198082.4714161.4694.60141736.7547.295891.569.821799.2412.4032.6053.434064.57Reservas energticas 1950 y 2000

361.9213799.54375.09141361.66205.875685.6943.991755.2550.52174.48216.9120373.09Petrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelectricidadOtros

198598.4913701.0492.94141268.7155.655630.0412.181743.0712.8632.1455.034062.97

430.3213270.72363.52140905.20240.085389.9753.731689.3452.70172.30224.1820365.8219501562314434067601930454118

1990116.6713154.0688.81140816.3864.395325.5814.681674.6613.4931.5157.064060.94200011757.06140008.744597.671500.6929.104056.51

503.8212650.23337.40140478.99269.625055.9563.061611.6056.09168.91231.2520358.75

1995135.2512514.9979.88140399.1070.424985.5316.841594.7614.5530.4558.574059.43

595.4511919.54313.49140085.61305.524680.0173.941520.8260.90164.10240.1020349.90

2000162.4811757.0676.86140008.7482.344597.6720.131500.6915.9029.1061.494056.51

Totales3865.944331.262162.33429.31628.472518.68

Total:13935.99

Porcentaje de reservas restantes con respecto a las iniciales:75.25%97.00%68.01%77.76%64.67%98.51%


Reservas restantes11757.06140008.744597.671500.6929.10anual4056.51anual

Reduccin respecto a 1950:24.75%3.00%31.99%22.24%35.33%anual1.49%anual

Paso 4c - C2

Paso 4c - C2

22.6558567.398070973614.80585010.798234.9142285464

28.462551779875.038744252317.83512472711.06525310.942918922738.2601679101

35.503333429581.015357540221.61918179572.33645611.055469123441.1079935968

44.029882846985.947978001126.28602521383.82501511.186678630244.2680595809

53.931025932489.263212665831.76743457285.52748411.302244014846.7463774142

67.307274342992.185752876138.9236702877.5087611.885419732651.4304442114

82.467054902594.600926640447.28903500989.8150712.403288228753.4286336886

98.494451444292.943969988655.645233517312.1799312.85538499455.0286647859

116.666234172888.814585089664.392282121614.68431213.494346745657.0596494704

135.24592405179.88370971770.41964427216.84394114.55099827758.565616683

162.47785147576.8632236582.341825220.12558715.89770232561.48669535

Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelectricidad

Otros

x 10^18J

Caso 0 - Consumo Mundial de energa por energtico

Paso 4c - graf

2.72160.5318.7559.7418.7624.0410.03219952

3.1319.590.6426.963.0520.3826.0211.894760592

3.5423.210.7735.0466.3721.9927.8513.8677914856

3.9527.610.8343.3169.6923.7529.7216.683639273

4.432.021.0351.5673.0225.5131.5619.4377786

5.3240.381.4156.9379.8627.4933.5424.31132145

6.3648.861.7865.1386.729.5135.5426.12400847

7.6558.292.2768.6492.6131.537.1829.00763473

8.8667.992.7467.31101.0633.5338.8134.8114096

10.4683.773.3645.5311436.1640.2841.949834

12.0998.964.0541.89128.46938.83142.9351.972885

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

Resto

x 10^18 J

Caso 0 - Consumo energtico Mundial por grupos

35.2206429.1547135.186373.220837.75748

40.06332.09340.3653.71443.464

44.87234.98145.5214.23249.16

49.93638.0750.9824.75755.104

55.04641.1856.475.31661.082

61.44145.86663.4566.03168.141

68.61750.81871.3346.80176.3

74.52855.34578.0517.49682.73

79.23959.52683.4328.10687.483

82.8565.53187.7298.66888.76

90.77705973.68961696.2017289.55200696.999591

SI

ST

OS

UNE

P

x 10^18 J

Caso 0 - Consumo energtico de los grupos por sectores (sin Resto)

23.1412.8426.98103.4325.9103.22120.3525.12

23.166308933513.496569019226.7670430782139.2375579078315.4077038519107.7565695553124.778209370424.436

22.972096041514.001073757527.2759475735170.0970873786306.558891455112.039537372128.128450496924.322

22.402450090714.810563187625.3203172666200.3608438194301.1928429423118.1533257052132.501114578725.37

21.960471151915.321160618627.7628032345227.1065497952296.479759633123.9733683239136.505190311426.9

23.53774002317.611116199334.8750927529240.4443130464307.1656602177130.2658389802139.872388339830.05

24.851516098819.650426711140.3445149592264.2190669371316.7701863354136.4182692308143.110252073829.05

25.713421397621.698587302548.608137045269.3560412824321.90899927143.0192962543146.314588170529.69

26.101814753723.558966718155.3759094584257.0457496372334.9796148364149.5206243032149.332409865733

27.05219055526.850219558364.5409143296174.9135612755362.4916531527158.3326035555152.743544044638

27.939545202429.518622146174.2302052786162.4272974021392.4874740315166.9145460798160.461986992645

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

Resto

GJ/hab

Consumo energtico per cpita - Caso 0

1562311757.0602310648

144340140008.744932273

67604597.6688168143

19301500.692134

4529.102297675

41184056.51330465

1950

2000

x10^18 J

Reservas energticas - Caso 0

05.500094.5

1.5631.50133

1.5631.50133

18210115

28271801314

28271801314

18210115

Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelctirca

Otras

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica por grupos 1950

33.551204.545

41.2713.7220.440.6716.97

253752.90.130

31.525.15304.717.65

38.228.0619.55.32.756.19

41.514.118173.55.9

48.415.222.49.41.82.8

Petrleo y derivados

Carbn

Gas Natural

Nuclear

Hidroelctirca

Otras

Caso 0 - Cesta energtica por grupos 2000

67604597.6688168143

19301500.692134

4529.102297675

41184056.51330465

1950

2000

x10^18 J

Reservas energticas - Caso 0 - cuatro sectores menos abundantes

0.250.410.60.7150.7550.7380.746

0.2850.450.620.730.7750.7650.77

0.3150.480.640.740.790.780.785

0.340.510.660.7550.810.7950.802

0.370.5380.6750.7650.8250.8150.82

0.3970.5720.6960.7820.8430.8330.841

0.430.6050.7110.7960.8610.8480.861

0.4510.6320.7330.8080.8770.8630.872

0.4750.6610.7660.8030.8960.8820.891

0.4980.6880.7770.7860.9180.9040.909

0.5180.7120.7460.7930.9340.9210.924

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

ndice de desarrollo humano - Caso 0

2.72

16

0.53

18.75

59.74

18.76

24.04

10.03219952

1950

Consumo energtico por grupo 1950 - Caso 0

12.09

98.96

4.05

41.89

128.469

38.831

42.93

51.972885

2000

Consumo energtico por grupo 2000 - Caso 0

22.65585

67.3980709736

14.80585

0

10.7982

34.9142285464

1950

Consumo energtico por energtico 1950 - Caso 0

162.477851475

76.86322365

82.3418252

20.125587

15.897702325

61.48669535

2000

Consumo energtico por energtico 2000 - Caso 0

117.41

1246.34

19.53

181.33

183.3

181.77

199.71

399.371

1950

Poblacin por grupo 1950 - Caso 0

432.72

3352.46

54.56

257.9

327.32

232.64

267.54

1154.953

2000

Poblacin por grupo 2000 - Caso 0

117.411246.3419.53181.33183.3181.77199.71399.371

135.111451.4823.91193.195199.9189.13208.53486.772

154.11657.7328.23206216.5196.27217.36570.1748

176.321864.2132.78216.16231.38201.01224.3657.6129

200.362089.9237.1227.03246.29205.77231.2722.594

226.022292.8740.43236.77259.99211.03239.79809.029

255.922486.4644.12246.5273.7216.32248.34899.2774

297.512686.3546.7254.83287.69220.25254.11977.017

339.442885.9549.48261.86301.69224.25259.891054.8912

386.663119.952.06260.3314.49228.38263.711103.943

432.723352.4654.56257.9327.32232.64267.541154.953

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

Resto

Millones de habitantes

Caso 0 - Poblacin mundial por grupos

35.22064

29.15471

35.18637

3.2208

37.75748

1950

Sectores de consumo energtico mundial 1950 - Caso 0

90.777059

73.689616

96.201728

9.552006

96.999591

2000

Sectores de consumo energtico mundial 2000 - Caso 0

Paso 4bImpacto ambiental de cada contaminanteImpacto ambiental global de cada energtico

Petrleo - Combustleo (Fuel oil)

zona de impactoAgente de impacto o contaminacin ambientalValoracin subjetiva del impacto ambientalUnidades

AireAlto38.36Petrleo65

COAlto31.15Carbn89

Muy Alto44.85Gas Natural48

SOxMedio21Fisin45

Medio27.2Gran Hidrulica31

Otros HCMedio27.2Biomasa - (Tradicional)68

COVMedio28.33Biomasa - (moderna)49

PM 10Alto32.14Solar - (fotovoltica)17

Medio2Solar - (trmica)11

Bajo1Elico16

PANMedio2Mini hidrulica y mareomotriz22

OlorBajo1Geotermia45

RuidoAlto3

RadiacinBajo1

MetalesMedio26.25

AguaSolidos disueltosBajo1

Solidos suspensosBajo1

MetalesBajo1

Aceites y grasasBajo1

Agentes biolgicosBajo1

Agentes qumicosAlto3

TemperaturaAlto3

Eutroficacin aceleradaBajo1

RadiacinBajo1

Otros: DerramesMuy Alto4

SueloDesertizacinMedio2

DeforestacinMedio2

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaBajo1

PaisajeBajo1

HundimientosNulo0

Induccin de actividad ssmicaBajo1

Desechos peligrososBajo1

Desechos no peligrososBajo1

RadiacinNulo0

OtrosNulo0

BiosferaFloraAlto3

FaunaAlto3

65

Carbn - (Coal)


AireMuy Alto410.22

COMuy Alto41.41

Alto37.24

SOxMuy Alto41.08

Medio22.73

Otros HCAlto32.73

COVMedio220.83

PM 10Muy Alto42.29

Muy Alto4

Bajo1

PANMedio2

OlorMedio2

RuidoMedio2

RadiacinBajo1

MetalesMedio21.25

AguaSolidos disueltosAlto3

Solidos suspensosAlto3

MetalesAlto3



Agentes qumicosMedio2

TemperaturaAlto3


RadiacinBajo1

Otros

SueloDesertizacinMedio2

DeforestacinMedio2

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaMuy Alto4

PaisajeMuy Alto4

HundimientosAlto3

Induccin de actividad ssmicaAlto3

Desechos peligrososMuy Alto4

Desechos no peligrososMedio2

RadiacinBajo1

Otros

BiosferaFloraAlto3

FaunaAlto3

89

Gas Natural


AireMedio26.95

COMedio20.96

Alto31.48

SOxMedio23.47

Alto39.66

Otros HCAlto310

COVMedio213.88

PM 10Medio26.64

Bajo1

Bajo1

PANBajo1

OlorBajo1

RuidoMedio2

RadiacinBajo1

MetalesBajo12.5



MetalesBajo1


Agentes biolgicosNulo0

Agentes qumicosBajo1

TemperaturaAlto3


RadiacinNulo0

Otros

SueloDesertizacinBajo1

DeforestacinBajo1


PaisajeBajo1

HundimientosBajo1




RadiacinNulo0

Otros

BiosferaFloraMedio2

FaunaMedio2

48

Fisin


AireBajo1

COBajo1

Bajo1

SOxBajo1

Bajo1

Otros HCBajo1

COVBajo1

PM 10Bajo1

Nulo0

Nulo0

PANBajo1

OlorNulo0

RuidoBajo1

Radiacin - RadnAlto3

MetalesBajo1



MetalesBajo1




TemperaturaAlto3


RadiacinAlto3

Otros

SueloDesertizacinNulo0

DeforestacinNulo0


PaisajeBajo1

HundimientosNulo0

Induccin de actividad ssmicaNulo0

Desechos peligrososMuy alto42.34

Desechos no peligrososMuy alto4

RadiacinMuy alto4

Otros

BiosferaFloraMedio2

FaunaMedio2

45

Gran Hidrulica


AireNulo0

CONulo0

Nulo0

SOxNulo0

Nulo0

Otros HCNulo0

COVNulo0

PM 10Nulo0

Nulo0

Nulo0

PANNulo0

OlorNulo0

RuidoNulo0

RadiacinNulo0

MetalesNulo0

AguaSolidos disueltosMedio2


MetalesBajo1


Agentes biolgicosMedio2


TemperaturaNulo0

Eutroficacin aceleradaMuy alto4

RadiacinNulo0

Otros


DeforestacinBajo1

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaMuy alto4

PaisajeMuy alto4

HundimientosAlto3


Desechos peligrososNulo0

Desechos no peligrososNulo0

RadiacinNulo0

Otros

BiosferaFloraAlto3

FaunaAlto3

31

Biomasa - (Tradicional)


AireAlto*311.87

COAlto*33.48

Alto36.47

SOxAlto32.04

Medio23.83

Otros HCMedio23.83

COVAlto31.7

PM 10Muy alto42.43

Bajo1

Medio2

PANMedio2

OlorMedio2

RuidoBajo1

RadiacinNulo0

MetalesBajo11.25

AguaSolidos disueltosMedio2

Solidos suspensosMedio2

MetalesBajo1



Agentes qumicosNulo0

TemperaturaBajo1


RadiacinNulo0

Otros

SueloDesertizacinMuy alto*4

DeforestacinMuy alto*4

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaMuy alto*4

PaisajeMuy alto*4

HundimientosBajo1




RadiacinNulo0

Otros

BiosferaFloraMuy alto*4

FaunaAlto3

* Considerando que no se repone dicha biomasa68

Biomasa - (Moderna)


AireBajo*112

COBajo*13.5

Alto36.5

SOxMedio22

Medio23.8

Otros HCMedio23.8

COVMedio21.7

PM 10Alto32.4

Bajo1

Nulo0

PANBajo1

OlorAlto3

RuidoBajo1

RadiacinNulo0

MetalesBajo11.25



MetalesNulo0




TemperaturaBajo1


RadiacinNulo0

Otros

SueloDesertizacinBajo*1

DeforestacinBajo*1

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaMuy alto4

PaisajeMuy alto4

HundimientosBajo1




RadiacinNulo0

Otros

BiosferaFloraAlto3

FaunaAlto3

* Considerando que se repone dicha biomasa49

Solar - (fotovoltica)


AireNulo0

CONulo0

Nulo0

SOxNulo0

Nulo0

Otros HCNulo0

COVNulo0

PM 10Nulo0

Nulo0

Nulo0

PANNulo0

OlorNulo0

RuidoNulo0

Radiacin - RadonBajo1

MetalesNulo0

AguaSolidos disueltosNulo0

Solidos suspensosNulo0

MetalesMedio2

Aceites y grasasNulo0



TemperaturaNulo0

Eutroficacin aceleradaNulo0

RadiacinNulo0

Otros


DeforestacinNulo0

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaMuy alta4

PaisajeMuy alta4

HundimientosNulo0


Desechos peligrososAlta3


RadiacinNulo0

Otros

BiosferaFloraBajo1

FaunaBajo1

17

Solar - (trmica)


AireNulo0

CONulo0

Nulo0

SOxNulo0

Nulo0

Otros HCNulo0

COVNulo0

PM 10Nulo0

Nulo0

Nulo0

PANNulo0

OlorNulo0

RuidoBajo1

RadiacinNulo0

Metales


Solidos suspensosMedio2

MetalesBajo1

Aceites y grasasNulo0



TemperaturaBajo1


RadiacinNulo0

Otros


DeforestacinNulo0


PaisajeBajo1

HundimientosNulo0




RadiacinNulo0

Otros

BiosferaFloraBajo1

FaunaBajo1

11

Elico


AireNulo0

CONulo0

Nulo0

SOxNulo0

Nulo0

Otros HCNulo0

COVNulo0

PM 10Nulo0

Nulo0

Nulo0

PANNulo0

OlorNulo0

RuidoMuy alto4

RadiacinNulo0

MetalesNulo0

AguaSolidos disueltosNulo0

Solidos suspensosNulo0

MetalesNulo0




TemperaturaNulo0


RadiacinNulo0

Otros


DeforestacinBajo1


PaisajeMuy alto4

HundimientosNulo0




RadiacinNulo0

Otros

BiosferaFloraMedio2

FaunaAlto3

16

Mini hidrulica y mareomotriz


AireNulo0

CONulo0

Nulo0

SOxNulo0

Nulo0

Otros HCNulo0

COVNulo0

PM 10Nulo0

Nulo0

Nulo0

PANNulo0

OlorNulo0

RuidoNulo0

RadiacinNulo0

MetalesNulo0



MetalesBajo1




TemperaturaNulo0


RadiacinNulo0

Otros


DeforestacinNulo0

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaAlto3

PaisajeMuy alto4

HundimientosAlto3




RadiacinNulo0

Otros

BiosferaFloraAlto3

FaunaAlto3

22

Geotermia


AireBajo1

COBajo1

Bajo1

SOxBajo1

Bajo1

Otros HCBajo1

COVBajo1

PM 10Bajo1

Nulo1

Nulo1

PANBajo1

OlorAlto3

RuidoMedio2

RadiacinBajo1

Metales

AguaSolidos disueltosAlto3

Solidos suspensosAlto3

MetalesMedio2




TemperaturaAlto3


RadiacinBajo1

Otros


DeforestacinNulo0


PaisajeBajo1

HundimientosBajo1




RadiacinNulo0

Otros

BiosferaFloraAlto3

FaunaAlto3

45

Minihidrulica y mareomotriz (0), Biomasa tradicional (100) y Biomasa moderna (0).

zona de impactoAgente de impacto o contaminacin ambientalValoracin subjetiva del impacto ambiental (relativo)Unidades

AireNulo-Bajo3

CONulo-Bajo3

Medio-Alto3

SOxMedio-Alto3

Bajo-medio2

Otros HCBajo-medio2

COVMedio-Alto3

PM 10Alto-muy alto4

Nulo-Bajo1

Medio-Alto2

PANMedio-Alto2

OlorMedio-Alto2

RuidoMedio-Alto1

RadiacinNulo-Bajo0

MetalesNulo-Bajo1

AguaSolidos disueltosBajo-medio2

Solidos suspensosBajo-medio2

MetalesNulo-Bajo1

Aceites y grasasNulo-Bajo1

Agentes biolgicosBajo-medio2


TemperaturaNulo-Bajo1

Eutroficacin aceleradaNulo-Bajo1

RadiacinNulo-Bajo0

OtrosNulo0

SueloDesertizacinAlto-muy alto4

DeforestacinAlto-muy alto4

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaAlto-muy alto4

PaisajeAlto-muy alto4

HundimientosNulo-Bajo1


Desechos peligrososNulo-Bajo0

Desechos no peligrososBajo-medio2

RadiacinNulo0

OtrosNulo0

BiosferaFloraAlto-muy alto4

FaunaMedio-Alto3

68.00

Minihidrulica y mareomotriz (2.01), Biomasa tradicional (80.38) y Biomasa moderna (7.31).


AireNulo-Bajo2.50

CONulo-Bajo2.50

Medio-Alto2.65

SOxMedio-Alto2.58

Bajo-medio1.77

Otros HCBajo-medio1.77

COVMedio-Alto2.58

PM 10Alto-muy alto3.45

Nulo-Bajo0.90

Medio-Alto1.63

PANMedio-Alto1.70

OlorMedio-Alto1.88

RuidoMedio-Alto1.10

RadiacinNulo-Bajo0.03

MetalesNulo-Bajo0.88

AguaSolidos disueltosBajo-medio1.79

Solidos suspensosBajo-medio1.83


Aceites y grasasNulo-Bajo0.95

Agentes biolgicosBajo-medio1.79

Agentes qumicosMedio0.07

TemperaturaNulo-Bajo0.97

Eutroficacin aceleradaNulo-Bajo0.90


OtrosNulo0.00

SueloDesertizacinAlto-muy alto3.29

DeforestacinAlto-muy alto3.32

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaAlto-muy alto3.70

PaisajeAlto-muy alto3.83

HundimientosNulo-Bajo0.96

Induccin de actividad ssmicaNulo0.00

Desechos peligrososNulo-Bajo0.05

Desechos no peligrososBajo-medio1.81

RadiacinNulo0.00

OtrosNulo0.00

BiosferaFloraAlto-muy alto3.67

FaunaMedio-Alto2.90

60.6772


AireNulo-Bajo2.75

CONulo-Bajo2.75

Medio-Alto2.82

SOxMedio-Alto2.79

Bajo-medio1.89

Otros HCBajo-medio1.89

COVMedio-Alto2.79

PM 10Alto-muy alto3.73

Nulo-Bajo0.95

Medio-Alto1.81

PANMedio-Alto1.85

OlorMedio-Alto1.94

RuidoMedio-Alto1.05



AguaSolidos disueltosBajo-medio1.90

Solidos suspensosBajo-medio1.92


Aceites y grasasNulo-Bajo0.98

Agentes biolgicosBajo-medio1.90

Agentes qumicosMedio0.03

TemperaturaNulo-Bajo0.99

Eutroficacin aceleradaNulo-Bajo0.95


OtrosNulo0.00

SueloDesertizacinAlto-muy alto3.64

DeforestacinAlto-muy alto3.66

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupadaAlto-muy alto3.85

PaisajeAlto-muy alto3.91

HundimientosNulo-Bajo0.98

Induccin de actividad ssmicaNulo0.00

Desechos peligrososNulo-Bajo0.02

Desechos no peligrososBajo-medio1.91

RadiacinNulo0.00

OtrosNulo0.00

BiosferaFloraAlto-muy alto3.84

FaunaMedio-Alto2.95

64.34

Paso 4bImpacto ambiental de cada contaminante Valoracin subjetiva por aoPaso 4b

Petrleo - Combustleo (Fuel oil)Valoracin subjetiva del Impacto Ambiental GlobalValoracin subjetiva del Impacto Ambiental Global

zona de impactoAgente de impacto o contaminacin ambiental19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000zona de impactoAgente de impacto o contaminacin ambiental19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000Total por Agente

Aire0.4510.4980.5530.6130.6780.7500.8250.9030.9861.0801.1638.500Aire3.0763.0743.0593.0353.0042.9622.9242.8802.8322.7802.74132.367Impactos Ambientales individuales

CO0.4510.4980.5530.6130.6780.7500.8250.9030.9861.0801.1638.500CO3.0763.0743.0593.0353.0042.9622.9242.8802.8322.7802.74132.367CO

0.6020.6630.7370.8170.9041.0001.1001.2041.3141.4411.55011.3332.8952.9232.9502.9773.0033.0283.0543.0793.1043.1273.15233.292Nulo0

SOx0.3010.3320.3690.4090.4520.5000.5500.6020.6570.7200.7755.666SOx2.9352.9162.8822.8382.7852.7192.6562.5852.5092.4262.35829.610SOxBajo1

0.3010.3320.3690.4090.4520.5000.5500.6020.6570.7200.7755.6661.9281.9451.9611.9771.9932.0072.0222.0352.0462.0472.05622.017Medio2

Otros HC0.3010.3320.3690.4090.4520.5000.5500.6020.6570.7200.7755.666Otros HC2.3762.3822.3822.3762.3672.3492.3372.3192.2962.2602.23925.683Otros HCAlto3

COV0.3010.3320.3690.4090.4520.5000.5500.6020.6570.7200.7755.666COV2.0392.0422.0412.0402.0362.0342.0252.0172.0092.0011.99222.277COVMuy alto4

PM 100.4510.4980.5530.6130.6780.7500.8250.9030.9861.0801.1638.500PM 103.3033.2923.2673.2353.1953.1483.0983.0442.9892.9332.88434.386PM 10

0.3010.3320.3690.4090.4520.5000.5500.6020.6570.7200.7755.6662.4092.3962.3652.3202.2682.1952.1372.0681.9911.9071.84423.901Impactos por contaminante segn su utilizacin

0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.8331.1171.1111.1041.0971.0891.0831.0711.0601.0511.0431.03311.860

PAN0.3010.3320.3690.4090.4520.5000.5500.6020.6570.7200.7755.666PAN1.7231.7291.7291.7261.7191.7111.7001.6891.6771.6671.65818.727PANMuy Bajo0-0.5

Olor0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Olor1.5941.5771.5521.5221.4881.4501.4091.3661.3221.2761.23515.791OlorBajo0.5 - 1

Ruido0.4510.4980.5530.6130.6780.7500.8250.9030.9861.0801.1638.500Ruido1.7871.8201.8541.8871.9221.9521.9902.0252.0582.0902.12421.510RuidoMedio1-2

Radiacin0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Radiacin0.7000.7290.7560.7810.8060.8230.8480.8690.8860.8970.9139.010RadiacinAlto2-3

Metales0.3010.3320.3690.4090.4520.5000.5500.6020.6570.7200.7755.666Metales1.5121.5261.5341.5381.5411.5361.5381.5361.5311.5251.52416.841MetalesMuy alto3-4

AguaSolidos disueltos0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833AguaSolidos disueltos2.1752.1382.0902.0341.9721.9001.8321.7581.6821.6041.53620.722S. Dis.

Solidos suspensos0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Solidos suspensos2.1082.0792.0371.9861.9281.8601.7941.7221.6471.5681.50120.230S. Sus.Suma de impactos por contaminante en el perido estudiado

Metales0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Metales1.8861.8651.8321.7891.7401.6771.6231.5611.4941.4191.36118.248Metales

Aceites y grasas0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Aceites y grasas0.9940.9950.9950.9950.9950.9950.9960.9960.9960.9960.99610.950A y GMuy Bajo0-5.5

Agentes biolgicos0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Agentes biolgicos1.1811.1601.1361.1141.0901.0711.0431.0201.0010.9910.97311.780Ag. Bio.Bajo5.6 - 11

Agentes qumicos0.4510.4980.5530.6130.6780.7500.8250.9030.9861.0801.1638.500Agentes qumicos1.5241.5531.5831.6091.6371.6581.6931.7241.7521.7821.81718.331Ag. Qui.Medio12-22

Temperatura0.4510.4980.5530.6130.6780.7500.8250.9030.9861.0801.1638.500Temperatura2.3182.3592.3982.4312.4632.4832.5172.5432.5622.5702.59127.234TAlto23-33

Eutroficacin acelerada0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Eutroficacin acelerada1.2031.1801.1611.1451.1321.1221.1151.1091.1061.1081.10612.486Eutro.Muy alto33-44

Radiacin0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Radiacin0.6000.6240.6430.6580.6720.6780.6900.6980.7040.6800.7167.363Radiacin

Otros: Derrames0.6020.6630.7370.8170.9041.0001.1001.2041.3141.4411.55011.333Otros: Derrames0.6020.6630.7370.8170.9041.0001.1001.2041.3141.4411.55011.333DerramesSuma de impactos Anuales

SueloDesertizacin0.3010.3690.3690.4090.4520.5000.5500.6020.6570.7200.7755.703SueloDesertizacin2.1392.1602.1002.0762.0482.0251.9871.9531.9241.9021.87322.188Desertizacin

Deforestacin0.3010.3320.3690.4090.4520.5000.5500.6020.6570.7200.7755.666Deforestacin2.2152.1912.1612.1322.0992.0732.0321.9961.9651.9431.91322.720DeforestacinMuy Bajo0-5

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupada0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Uso de suelo-superficie ocupada3.2193.1383.0422.9372.8232.7042.5782.4502.3222.1992.08229.494Uso de sueloBajo5- 20

Paisaje0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Paisaje3.2343.1533.0562.9512.8362.7162.5892.4602.3332.2092.09129.628PaisajeMedio20-45

Hundimientos0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Hundimientos1.8831.8251.7551.6751.5901.4911.4021.3051.2031.0941.00416.225Hundi.Alto45-85

Induccin de actividad ssmica0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Induccin de actividad ssmica1.6631.6451.6161.5741.5291.4661.4201.3631.2981.2251.17215.971Act. SsmicaMuy alto85-140

Desechos peligrosos0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Desechos peligrosos2.0452.0492.0321.9971.9531.8801.8291.7601.6791.5821.51320.320D. Pel.

Desechos no peligrosos0.1500.1660.1840.2040.2260.2500.2750.3010.3290.3600.3882.833Desechos no peligrosos1.5861.5941.5931.5861.5741.5551.5331.5091.4821.4501.42216.883D. no pel.Impacto global

Radiacin0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Radiacin0.4480.4620.4690.4700.4670.4540.4460.4330.4160.3920.3754.832Radiacin

Otros0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Otros0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Otros

BiosferaFlora0.4510.4980.5530.6130.6780.7500.8250.9030.9861.0801.1638.500BiosferaFlora3.0953.0763.0543.0323.0072.9872.9582.9332.9122.8982.87832.831FloraMuy Bajo0-5

Fauna0.4510.4980.5530.6130.6780.7500.8250.9030.9861.0801.1638.500Fauna2.8902.8792.8652.8502.8342.8182.8012.7852.7702.7602.74831.002FaunaBajo5- 20

Medio20-45

Suma de impactos9.78010.81811.98013.27814.69616.24917.86819.57021.35523.41125.194184.197Suma de impactos71.47971.32570.85170.24169.51368.57567.71066.73565.69564.57063.715750.409Alto45-85

Ao19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000Ao19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000ImpactoMuy alto85-140

Global

Impacto ambiental de cada contaminante Valoracin subjetiva por aoPaso 4bContribucin global por contaminantes especficos

Carbn - (Coal)

zona de impactoAgente de impacto o contaminacin ambiental19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000AoCOSOxOtros HCCOVPM 10MetalesDes. Pel. Rad.

Aire1.7901.7491.6821.5951.4971.3701.2611.1361.0000.8510.73314.66619501395.541.351.0475.181.581.632.812.490.110.000

CO1.7901.7491.6821.5951.4971.3701.2611.1361.0000.8510.73314.6661951/19545956.985.674.47318.416.957.1712.2310.540.450.005

1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.99919551574.371.471.1984.031.891.953.292.760.120.002

SOx1.7901.7491.6821.5951.4971.3701.2611.1361.0000.8510.73314.6661956/19596656.296.125.06350.468.318.5814.3611.480.510.016

0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.33319601744.561.571.3391.202.262.343.872.970.130.005

Otros HC1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.9991961/19647358.706.545.67377.219.9910.3116.9212.310.560.029

COV0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.33319651924.861.681.5097.402.732.824.573.170.150.009

PM 101.7901.7491.6821.5951.4971.3701.2611.1361.0000.8510.73314.6661966/19698064.466.936.32398.8011.9812.3819.9313.010.610.044

1.7901.7491.6821.5951.4971.3701.2611.1361.0000.8510.73314.66619702096.891.771.66102.003.263.375.373.320.160.013

0.4480.4370.4210.3990.3740.3420.3150.2840.2500.2130.1833.6661971/19748873.227.427.07417.0414.4714.9523.6713.710.660.061

PAN0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.33319752328.191.921.87106.523.974.106.443.520.170.018

Olor0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.3331976/19799774.857.897.94434.4017.5118.0928.1914.380.720.081

Ruido0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.33319802547.262.002.09110.684.784.947.633.650.190.023

Radiacin0.4480.4370.4210.3990.3740.3420.3150.2840.2500.2130.1833.6661981/198410572.978.148.76442.3920.7521.4532.9314.710.770.103

Metales0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.33319852726.902.052.28110.525.595.788.813.680.200.029

AguaSolidos disueltos1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.9991986/198911290.448.379.53436.8624.0724.8837.7514.740.810.126

Solidos suspensos1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.99919902905.532.112.48107.916.446.6610.043.660.210.034

Metales1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.9991991/199411864.388.5710.15416.1026.9327.8441.8814.390.830.148

Aceites y grasas0.4480.4370.4210.3990.3740.3420.3150.2840.2500.2130.1833.66619953013.532.152.59100.147.027.2610.883.510.210.039

Agentes biolgicos0.4480.4370.4210.3990.3740.3420.3150.2840.2500.2130.1833.6661996/199912670.978.8510.97399.5830.4131.4446.9414.180.870.173

Agentes qumicos0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.33320003308.182.252.8999.658.188.4612.573.550.220.047

Temperatura1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.999

Eutroficacin acelerada0.4480.4370.4210.3990.3740.3420.3150.2840.2500.2130.1833.666Totales en 50 aos:118649.0894.8396.855076.48219.06226.42351.09169.718.661.00

Radiacin0.4480.4370.4210.3990.3740.3420.3150.2840.2500.1830.1833.637

Otros: Derrames0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000COSOxOtros HCCOVPM 10MetalesDes. Pel. Rad.

SueloDesertizacin0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.333

Deforestacin0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.333Contribucin por contaminantes especficos

Uso de suelo-superficie ocupada1.7901.7491.6821.5951.4971.3701.2611.1361.0000.8510.73314.666

Paisaje1.7901.7491.6821.5951.4971.3701.2611.1361.0000.8510.73314.666Ao / ContaminanteCOSOxOtros HCCOVPM 10MetalesDes. Pel. Rad.

Hundimientos1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.99919501395.541.351.0475.181.581.632.812.490.110.000

Induccin de actividad ssmica1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.99919551574.371.471.1984.031.891.953.292.760.120.002

Desechos peligrosos1.7901.7491.6821.5951.4971.3701.2611.1361.0000.8510.73314.66619601744.561.571.3391.202.262.343.872.970.130.005

Desechos no peligrosos0.8950.8750.8410.7970.7480.6850.6310.5680.5000.4250.3677.33319651924.861.681.5097.402.732.824.573.170.150.009

Radiacin0.4480.4370.4210.3990.3740.3420.3150.2840.2500.2130.1833.66619702096.891.771.66102.003.263.375.373.320.160.013

Otros0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.00019752328.191.921.87106.523.974.106.443.520.170.018

BiosferaFlora1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.99919802547.262.002.09110.684.784.947.633.650.190.023

Fauna1.3431.3121.2621.1961.1231.0270.9460.8520.7500.6380.55010.99919852726.902.052.28110.525.595.788.813.680.200.029

19902905.532.112.48107.916.446.6610.043.660.210.034

Suma de impactos39.83838.91837.43035.48933.30530.47328.06525.28522.25918.90416.319326.28319953013.532.152.59100.147.027.2610.883.510.210.039

Ao1950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020003308.182.252.8999.658.188.4612.573.550.220.047

Impacto

Modelo de planificación energética orientado al desarrollo sostenible

Documents

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