Intra-regional and extra-regional trade within Europe and the CIS … · Intra-regional and...
Transcript of Intra-regional and extra-regional trade within Europe and the CIS … · Intra-regional and...
Intra-regional and extra-regional trade within Europe and the CIS countries
6–7 March, 2014 David Gould, Lead Economist Chief Economist Office Europe and Central Asia Region The World Bank
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Summary � CIS countries have been expanding trade
outside their region, particularly with Europe
� Nonetheless, growth of trade as a share of GDP has been sluggish for CIS countries and mainly driven by commodity exports—internal structural reform is key, not just trade liberalization
� Measuring the trade restrictiveness of NTMs
by country and region is doable
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CIS is already trading less inside its region, EU intra-regional trade has been fairly constant
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Correcting for size bias, intra-regional is still highest for CIS, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Europe
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Moldova’s and Georgia’s Trade with the EU and ROW has been on the rise
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Belarus and Ukraine trade more within the CIS, but Ukraine’s trade is oil based imports
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Russia and Kazakhstan trade more outside CIS, but for Kazakhstan this is due to oil exports to EU
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Country Rank Top Exports Partners (2008-2012) Share of Total Export (%)
Rank Top Imports Partners (2008-20
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Share of Total Import (%)
Armenia 1 Russia 20.76 1 Russia 13.15
Armenia 2 Germany 17.03 2 China 9.70
Armenia 3 United States 8.48 3 Ukraine 5.93
Armenia * EU27 39.09 * EU27 26.49 Azerbaijan 1 Turkey 1.88 1 Russia 16.61 Azerbaijan 2 Russia 1.58 2 Turkey 13.41 Azerbaijan 3 Kazakhstan 0.45 3 Germany 8.57 Azerbaijan * EU27 61.32 * EU27 28.40 Belarus 1 Russia 44.79 1 Russia 21.16
Belarus 2 Ukraine 4.64 2 Germany 6.46 Belarus 3 Brazil 3.72 3 Ukraine 4.59 Belarus * EU27 21.75 * EU27 20.79 Georgia 1 Turkey 11.49 1 Turkey 16.73 Georgia 2 Bulgaria 8.23 2 Ukraine 8.97
Georgia 3 United States 7.41 3 Germany 6.73 Georgia * EU27 35.15 * EU27 28.96 Kazakhstan 1 Russia 10.07 1 Russia 25.44 Kazakhstan 2 China 8.51 2 China 14.06 Kazakhstan 3 Turkey 2.31 3 Germany 6.18 Kazakhstan * EU27 46.97 * EU27 22.22
Kyrgyz Republic 1 Russia 40.06 1 Russia 21.71
Kyrgyz Republic 2 Kazakhstan 18.18 2 China 20.78
Kyrgyz Republic 3 China 9.43 3
Kazakhstan 7.77
Kyrgyz Republic * EU27 11.57 * EU27 11.16
Moldova 1 Russia 22.97 1 Ukraine 11.33
Moldova 2 Romania 13.11 2 Russia 9.32
Moldova 3 Italy 11.39 3 China 7.62
Moldova * EU27 50.62 * EU27 43.75 Russia 1 Germany 3.96 1 China 15.17
Russia 2 Turkey 3.83 2 Germany 12.15 Russia 3 China 3.10 3 Ukraine 5.51 Russia * EU27 51.21 * EU27 42.16 Ukraine 1 Russia 22.49 1 Russia 11.72
Ukraine 2 Turkey 6.53 2 Germany 8.08 Ukraine 3 Italy 4.27 3 China 7.58 Ukraine * EU27 28.02 * EU27 32.11
Country Rank Top Exports Partners (2008-‐2012) Share of Total Export (%)
RankTop Imports Partners (2008-‐2012)Share of Total Import (%)
Armenia 1 Russia 20.76 1 Russia 13.15Armenia 2 Germany 17.03 2 China 9.70Armenia 3 United States 8.48 3 Ukraine 5.93Armenia * EU27 39.09 * EU27 26.49Azerbaijan 1 Turkey 1.88 1 Russia 16.61Azerbaijan 2 Russia 1.58 2 Turkey 13.41Azerbaijan 3 Kazakhstan 0.45 3 Germany 8.57Azerbaijan * EU27 61.32 * EU27 28.40Belarus 1 Russia 44.79 1 Russia 21.16Belarus 2 Ukraine 4.64 2 Germany 6.46Belarus 3 Brazil 3.72 3 Ukraine 4.59Belarus * EU27 21.75 * EU27 20.79Georgia 1 Turkey 11.49 1 Turkey 16.73Georgia 2 Bulgaria 8.23 2 Ukraine 8.97Georgia 3 United States 7.41 3 Germany 6.73Georgia * EU27 35.15 * EU27 28.96Kazakhstan 1 Russia 10.07 1 Russia 25.44Kazakhstan 2 China 8.51 2 China 14.06Kazakhstan 3 Turkey 2.31 3 Germany 6.18Kazakhstan * EU27 46.97 * EU27 22.22Kyrgyz Republic 1 Russia 40.06 1 Russia 21.71Kyrgyz Republic 2 Kazakhstan 18.18 2 China 20.78Kyrgyz Republic 3 China 9.43 3 Kazakhstan 7.77Kyrgyz Republic * EU27 11.57 * EU27 11.16Moldova 1 Russia 22.97 1 Ukraine 11.33Moldova 2 Romania 13.11 2 Russia 9.32Moldova 3 Italy 11.39 3 China 7.62Moldova * EU27 50.62 * EU27 43.75Russia 1 Germany 3.96 1 China 15.17Russia 2 Turkey 3.83 2 Germany 12.15Russia 3 China 3.10 3 Ukraine 5.51Russia * EU27 51.21 * EU27 42.16Ukraine 1 Russia 22.49 1 Russia 11.72Ukraine 2 Turkey 6.53 2 Germany 8.08Ukraine 3 Italy 4.27 3 China 7.58Ukraine * EU27 28.02 * EU27 32.11
CIS trade primarily with Russia and EU
CIS: resources exports, manufacturing imports
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Country Rank Top Exports Products (2008-‐2012)Share of Total
Export (%)Rank Top Imports Products (2008-‐2012)
Share of Total
Import (%)Armenia 1 Beverages, spirits and vinegar 14.36 1 Oils & products 18.22Armenia 2 Iron and steel 13.03 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 9.29Armenia 3 Natural/cultured pearls, prec stone 12.88 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 6.74Azerbaijan 1 Oils & products 94.28 1 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 20.90Azerbaijan 2 Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citr 0.74 2 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 9.81Azerbaijan 3 Articles of iron or steel 0.37 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 9.42Belarus 1 Oils & products 23.44 1 Oils & products 37.75Belarus 2 Fertilisers 10.34 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 10.57Belarus 3 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 4.18 3 Iron and steel 5.63Georgia 1 Oils & products 29.17 1 Oils & products 15.74Georgia 2 Iron and steel 18.68 2 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 9.97Georgia 3 Ores, slag and ash 8.87 3 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 9.10Kazakhstan 1 Oils & products 65.33 1 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 16.94Kazakhstan 2 Iron and steel 5.77 2 Oils & products 11.08Kazakhstan 3 Copper and articles thereof 4.73 3 Articles of iron or steel 9.40Kyrgyz Republic 1 Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citr 13.34 1 Oils & products 15.90Kyrgyz Republic 2 Art of apparel & clothing access 13.16 2 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 8.42Kyrgyz Republic 3 Edible vegetables and certain roots 11.16 3 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 7.19Moldova 1 Iron and steel 14.03 1 Oils & products 17.49Moldova 2 Beverages, spirits and vinegar 9.29 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 7.56Moldova 3 Art of apparel & clothing access 8.19 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 7.50Russia 1 Oils & products 60.98 1 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 16.99Russia 2 Iron and steel 5.14 2 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 12.98Russia 3 Fertilisers 2.29 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 10.84Ukraine 1 Iron and steel 27.02 1 Oils & products 28.05Ukraine 2 Oils & products 6.15 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 8.96Ukraine 3 Cereals 5.80 3 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 7.81
Overall CIS Trade flows as a share of GDP has increased since 1995…but less so since 2005
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Trade in the Balkans and EU is slightly more dynamic
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Resources dominate trade for Balkans but only dominates imports for EU
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Country Rank Top Exports Products (2008-‐2012)Share of
Total Export (%)
Rank Top Imports Products (2008-‐2012)Share of
Total Import (%)
Albania 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 12.43 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 15.94Albania 2 Footwear, gaiters and the like 11.03 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 7.76Albania 3 Iron and steel 8.62 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 6.65Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 Aluminium and articles thereof 9.00 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 18.66Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 Mineral fuels, oils & products 8.46 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 8.25Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 8.21 3 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 6.14Croatia 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 12.78 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 19.52Croatia 2 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 10.10 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 10.54Croatia 3 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 8.69 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 7.45EU27 1 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 13.75 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 14.89EU27 2 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 11.18 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 10.98EU27 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 8.93 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 9.64Macedonia, FYR 1 Iron and steel 23.46 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 17.72Macedonia, FYR 2 Art of apparel & clothing access, not knitted 15.74 2 Iron and steel 8.00Macedonia, FYR 3 Miscellaneous chemical products 8.41 3 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 6.99Montenegro 1 Aluminium and articles thereof 37.50 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 15.25Montenegro 2 Mineral fuels, oils & products 11.83 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 7.71Montenegro 3 Iron and steel 11.05 3 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 6.69Turkey 1 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll-‐stock 13.55 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 11.91Turkey 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 9.05 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 11.38Turkey 3 Art of apparel & clothing access, knitted 8.13 3 Iron and steel 9.02Serbia 1 Iron and steel 10.46 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products 18.05Serbia 2 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 7.18 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 9.54Serbia 3 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 5.55 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 6.69
Major trading partners for Balkans and EU are the EU
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Country Rank Top Exports Partners (2008-‐2012) Share of Total Export (%)
Rank Top Imports Partners (2008-‐2012) Share of Total Import (%)
Albania 1 Italy 33.47 1 Italy 28.68Albania 2 Greece 5.37 2 Greece 12.61Albania 3 China 5.37 3 China 6.75Albania * EU27 53.72 * EU27 63.17Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 Croatia 15.63 1 Croatia 15.26Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 Italy 13.41 2 Germany 11.11Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 Serbia 12.60 3 Serbia 10.06Bosnia and Herzegovina * EU27 57.94 * EU27 47.00Croatia 1 Italy 17.05 1 Italy 16.30Croatia 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina 14.19 2 Germany 12.98Croatia 3 Slovenia 10.39 3 Russia 8.88Croatia * EU27 61.66 * EU27 62.45EU27 1 Germany 12.78 1 Germany 13.37EU27 2 France 7.47 2 China 7.29EU27 3 United States 7.01 3 Netherlands 6.32EU27 * EU27 64.59 * EU27 58.23Macedonia, FYR 1 Germany 24.57 1 Germany 10.18Macedonia, FYR 2 Italy 9.24 2 Russia 9.79Macedonia, FYR 3 Bulgaria 9.08 3 Greece 8.96Macedonia, FYR * EU27 68.51 * EU27 53.24Montenegro 1 Serbia 28.51 1 Serbia 26.75Montenegro 2 Italy 14.41 2 Greece 7.37Montenegro 3 Greece 13.02 3 Germany 7.13Montenegro * EU27 51.94 * EU27 38.84Turkey 1 Germany 12.43 1 Russia 12.26Turkey 2 United Kingdom 7.56 2 Germany 9.42Turkey 3 France 6.60 3 China 8.80Turkey * EU27 56.05 * EU27 38.03Serbia 1 Italy 11.17 1 Russia 13.05
What are the bilateral tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade? Methodology based on a study we did for South Asia (Kee, 2013)
What we did: � Undertook a large survey in the 39 countries to
carefully account for all NTM barriers. Tariffs (for the most part) are easier to observe.
� Utilizing global trade data (over 5000 goods) estimated the impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers on bilateral trade flows.
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Estimation of Ad Valorem Equivalent of NTMs � Let mnij denote the quantity imported, then using the gravity model
mnij =exp(αnij+εnijtnij+βnijNTM1nij+ µnijNTM2nij+unij) (1) NTM1nij is a dummy on SPS and TBT measure, NTM2nij is a dummy on non-SPS and non-TBT measure, tnij are tariffs, and αnij is the standard gravity model variables: αnij = an+ an1 ln(GDPi)+an2ln(GDPj)+an3ln(distanceij)+ +an4common_borderij+ +an5landlocki+an6landlockj (2)
� Then we can calculate the ad valorem equivalent of the NTMs as: AVE1nij=(exp(βnij)-1)/εnij (3)
AVE2nij=(exp(µnij)-1)/εnij (4) where εnij is the bilateral import elasticity of good n between country i and j
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Estimates of AVE of NTMs, and its Trade Impacts Country NTM
Coverage
Percent of Goods with Binding NTM
Ad valorem equivalent of avg. NTM
Average estimated NTM ad valorem rate
NTM Coverage
Percent of Goods with Binding NTM
Ad valorem equivalent of avg. NTM
Average estimated NTM ad valorem rate
ARG 52.1 23.1 1.4 6.1 87.1 46.8 2.5 5.5CHL 37.8 18.0 1.2 7.4 15.3 8.5 0.5 5.2ECU 27.4 14.8 1.1 8.7 34.3 18.6 1.3 7.3EGY 93.4 35.9 1.7 4.8 43.7 19.5 1.4 6.8EUN 84.7 18.5 0.5 3.3 10.4 2.0 0.2 8.5GTM 23.0 10.9 0.8 8.0 95.6 60.3 2.7 5.0HND 95.6 53.7 2.0 4.3 95.6 64.4 3.1 5.6IDN 32.5 14.7 0.8 5.1 24.6 10.2 0.7 6.4JPN 39.0 13.2 0.3 2.7 8.7 3.4 0.1 3.6KAZ 40.6 19.2 1.1 7.1 33.0 18.5 0.7 4.1KEN 86.9 34.3 1.6 5.0 57.3 24.8 1.2 5.5KHM 14.8 6.1 0.4 6.6 29.4 17.0 0.8 5.3LBN 12.4 4.2 0.3 7.0 6.9 2.1 0.1 4.8MEX 43.1 17.6 0.9 3.8 34.9 16.4 0.9 5.2MUS 33.0 8.8 0.1 1.6 14.7 3.5 0.0 1.4NAM 49.4 28.0 1.3 5.7 49.7 32.0 1.8 7.3NIC 94.8 51.3 2.4 5.5 92.5 54.5 3.0 10.7PER 6.4 3.8 0.2 5.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 10.7UGA 95.0 53.3 2.2 4.3 94.9 65.1 3.5 6.2URY 6.9 3.9 0.4 8.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.1VEN 31.0 13.7 1.0 7.6 34.0 17.7 1.2 7.5AFG 17.6 8.9 1.0 20.5 25.3 9.9 0.5 4.4BGD 12.3 5.9 0.4 6.3 83.0 43.4 2.7 6.7IND 100.0 41.8 2.0 4.6 96.7 40.2 2.3 5.7LKA 96.7 39.0 1.7 4.6 96.7 49.0 2.7 6.2NPL 96.6 38.4 1.9 5.3 96.6 51.7 3.1 6.6PAK 36.0 17.2 1.2 6.4 96.6 51.7 3.0 6.1
Average 41.0 18.2 1.0 6.8 44.8 24.0 1.3 6.0
SPS or TBT measure non-‐SPS or non-‐TBT measure
Estimating OTRIs � The OTRI captures the trade policy distortions that
each country imposes on its import bundle. � It measures the uniform tariff equivalent of the country
tariff and non-tariff barriers (NTB) that would generate the same level of import value for the country in a given year and implicitly defined by:
𝑂𝑇𝑅𝐼↓𝑖 =∑𝑛↑▒𝑚↓𝑛𝑖 𝜀↓𝑛𝑖 𝑇↓𝑛𝑖 /∑𝑛↑▒𝑚↓𝑛𝑖 𝜀↓𝑛𝑖 (5)
where 𝑚↓𝑛𝑖 is the import value of good n in country i evaluated at exogenous world prices, 𝑇↓𝑛𝑖 is the overall level of protection that country i imposes on imports of good n, 𝜀↓𝑛𝑖 is the import demand elasticity.
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Estimates of OTRIs, and its Trade Impacts Country Overall Trade Restr.
IndexOTRI of the AVE of
SPS and TBTOTRI of the AVE of non-‐
SPS and non-‐TBTOTRI based on
TariffARG 5.8 0.3 0.6 4.9CHL 6.2 0.1 0.0 6.0CHN 2.8 0.3 0.2 2.4COL 5.8 0.0 0.1 5.7CRI 2.3 0.4 0.2 1.7ECU 3.5 0.4 0.4 2.8EGY 5.4 1.3 0.5 3.6EUN 1.8 0.5 0.0 1.3GTM 5.4 0.6 1.6 3.2HND 9.4 0.9 1.8 6.6IDN 1.8 0.1 0.1 1.7JPN 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.5KAZ 4.5 0.8 0.4 3.3KEN 7.2 0.6 1.1 5.5KHM 8.7 0.0 0.3 8.4MDG 5.4 0.3 0.2 4.8MEX 2.4 0.1 0.1 2.2MUS 2.6 0.6 0.2 1.8NAM 3.3 0.3 0.9 2.0NIC 5.2 0.7 1.2 3.3URY 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.4VEN 4.0 0.1 0.1 3.8AFG 4.8 0.0 0.0 4.7IND 7.0 0.3 0.2 6.5LKA 6.3 0.4 1.0 4.9NPL 9.1 0.4 0.3 8.4PAK 6.6 0.1 0.5 6.0
Average 5.2 0.3 0.5 4.4
Thank You
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