"Bosques y Cambio Climático"
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Transcript of "Bosques y Cambio Climático"
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Vicente Barros23 de noviembre 2011
Buenos Aires
BOSQUES Y
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
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Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008)
1,4 PgC y-1
+7,7 PgC y-1
2,7 PgC y-1
30%
4,1 PgC y-1
45%
25%2, 3 PgC y-1
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EL CICLO GEOQUÍMICO DEL CARBONO
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EXTINCIÓN DE ESPECIES YO ECOSISTEMASTOS EN LA SEGUNDA MITAD DEL
CRISIS DEL AGUA
PROPAGACIÓN DE VECTORES Y ENFERMEDADES
PÉRDIDA DE TIERRA POR AUMENTO DEL NIVEL DEL MAR
MAYOR IMPACTO EN PAISES EN DESARROLLO
AUMENTO DE CONFLICTIVIDAD
IMPACTOS MUCHO MAS IMPORTANTES CON MAS DE 2 � C DE CALENTAMIENTO
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GRAN PELIGRO DE QUE LA BIOSFERA DEJE DE SER UN SUMIDERO DE CARBONO
IMPACTOS MUCHO MAS IMPORTANTES CON MAS DE 2 � C DE CALENTAMIENTO
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LA MITIGACION DEL LA MITIGACION DEL CAMBIO CLIMCAMBIO CLIMÁÁTICOTICO
REQUIERE REQUIERE REDUCIR ELREDUCIR EL
CONSUMO DE HIDROCARBUROSCONSUMO DE HIDROCARBUROS
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PETROLEO:
DEMANDA y OFERTABrecha creciente (AIE)
Quien lo tiene y quien lo consume
Inestabilidad económica
Conflicto políticoLa paz
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EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
ES UN CONDICIONANTE DE
LA SOLUCIÓN A LA CRISIS
ENERGÉTICA GLOBAL
Energía renovable
Versus Carbón
Alineamientos de las grandes potencias económicas
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Respuesta en marcha:
1. Independencia energética
2. Innovación y liderazgo tecnológico
3. Generación de empleo calificado
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COMO NO SUPERAR LOS 2°C
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TEMAS EN DURBAN:
PROTOCOLO DE KIOTO
COMPROMISOS DE LARGO PLAZO
FONDOS PARA ADAPTACION Y MITIGACION
REDD
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EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO SE MANIFIESTA ANTES EN LOS EXTREMOS
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The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risksof Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation
sample
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A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events
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Socioeconomic development interacts with natural climate variations and human-caused climate change to influence disaster risk
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Vulnerability:
the predisposition of a person or group to be adversely affected
Disaster Risk:
the likelihood of severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or society due to weather or climate events interacting with vulnerable social conditions
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Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation can influence the degree to which extreme events translate into impacts and disasters
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Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate events increases disaster risk
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Pakistan floods, 20106 million left homeless
Increasing exposure of people and assets has been the major cause of changes in disaster losses
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From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred indeveloping countries
Fatalities are higher in developing countries
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Climate models project more frequent hot days throughout the 21st century
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In many regions, the time between “20-year” (unusually) warm days will decrease
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The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term
There are strategies that can help manage disaster risk now and also help improve people’s livelihoods and well-being
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IPCC Assessment Reports: The Process
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