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8/6/2019 Araki Presentation
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Analysis of Future Precipitation Analysis of Future Precipitation
CitarumCitarum River Basin, IndonesiaRiver Basin, IndonesiaADB Intern Yutaka Araki
e v ews expresse n s paper presen a on are e v ews o e au or an o no necessar yreflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or thegovernments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in thispaper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may notnecessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
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Analysis on Analysis on Citarum,IndonesiaCitarum,Indonesia
・Most strategic river basin・Climate Chan e could lead to more severe and
frequent flooding, and raise sea level in the river mouth
‐ , m as n area
‐3 hydroelectric dams
‐1400MW
‐400,000ha Irrigation‐80% of Jakarta’s water
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・50 & 80 years later
(2046‐2065, 2081‐2100 (+1981‐2000))
・based on 2 CO2‐emission‐scenario
‐ SRES A1B & B1
ToolsTools
・17 25 M in CMIP3
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SRESRES
A1「High economic growth」
(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios)
Globalization
A1FI:enphasis on fossil fuel
A1B:
Balanced
energy
useA1T: Non fossil fuel.(Technical innovation in
Energy)A1 B1
A2「Differentiated world」
slower technological change, less emphasis on
economic, social, and cultural interactions
Environment
‐oriented
Economy‐
oriented ,
B1「Sustainable development」
pay increased attention to the environmental, Technological change plays an important role
「
B2A2
B2「Loca se ‐re iance an stronger communities」
shift toward local and regional decision‐making
structures and institutions,Regionalization
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Originating Group(s) Country CMIP3 I.D. 20c3m SRES A1B
Beijing Climate Center China BCC-CM1 - -
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Norway BCCR-BCM2.0 - -
a ona en er or mosp er c esearc - - , -
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis Canada CGCM3.1(T47) 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis Canada CGCM3.1(T63) 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099
Météo-France / Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques France CNRM-CM3 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100
CSIRO Atmospheric Research Australia CSIRO-Mk3.0 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099
CSIRO Atmospheric Research Australia CSIRO-Mk3.5 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany ECHAM5/MPI-OM 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100
Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, MeteorologicalResearch Institute of KMA, and Model and Data group.
Germany / Korea ECHO-G 1979-1997 2044-2062,2078-2096
LASG / Institute of Atmospheric Physics China FGOALS-g1.0 - -
US Dept. of Commerce / NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GFDL-CM2.0 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099
US Dept. of Commerce / NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GFDL-CM2.1 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099
NASA / Goddard Institute for Space Studies USA GISS-AOM 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100
NASA / Goddard Institute for S ace Studies USA GISS-EH - -
NASA / Goddard Institute for Space Studies USA GISS-ER - -
Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Italy INGV-SXG - -
Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia INM-CM3.0 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace France IPSL-CM4 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National
Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center forGlobal Change (JAMSTEC)
Japan MIROC3.2(hires) 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100
Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), NationalInstitute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for
Global Change (JAMSTEC)Japan
MIROC3.2(medres)
1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100
Meteorological Research Institute Japan MRI-CGCM2.3.2 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099
National Center for Atmospheric Research USA PCM 1980-1998 2046-2064,2080-2098
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research / Met Office UK UKMO-HadCM3 - -
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research / Met Office UK UKMO-HadGEM1 - -
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Analysis data Analysis data (example from 1model, MIROC3.2(hires))(example from 1model, MIROC3.2(hires))
Date/Mon/Yearr a n a
(mm/day)1, JAN, 1981 7.05442
2, JAN, 1981 0.547167
・
・
31, DEC, 1981 1.53799
1, JAN, 1982 8.55489・
・
(20th Century Climate Coupled Models)
, , .
1, JAN, 2046 40.2292 1, JAN, 2046 11.9556
2, JAN, 2046 28.545 2, JAN, 2046 25.1224
・ ・
・ ・365day×20years Rainfall
31, DEC, 2046 19.3715 31, DEC, 2046 27.1505
1, JAN, 2047 17.2827 1, JAN, 2047 8.53636
・ ・
・ ・
31, DEC, 2065 10.4602 31, DEC, 2065 12.4373
data/SRES B1
Rainfall data/SRES A1B
1, JAN, 2081 16.6724 1, JAN, 2081 9.21539
2, JAN, 2081 14.4725 2, JAN, 2081 25.3945
・ ・
・ ・
365day×20years Rainfall 365day×20years
31, DEC, 2081 10.1454 31, DEC, 2081 3.026171, JAN, 2082 8.72172 1, JAN, 2082 15.1178
・ ・
・ ・
31, DEC, 2100 4.1766 31, DEC, 2100 5.68879
ata
Rainfall data/SRES A1B
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←←Citarum River
1 2
43 5
PCM (USA)CCSM3.0 (USA)
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•
• No rainfall days / consecutive no rainfall days
• nnua ra n a
• Seasonal rainfall (dry and rainy)• Probable daily rainfall (5,10,100 years return)
‐ oo y ra nage
‐ Irrigation/Drought management
‐
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1.2
no rainfall days
1.05
1.1
1.15
A1B
12%UP
0.9
0.95
1
1981‐2000 2046‐2065 2081‐2100
B1
number of model which shows increase
A1B 50years later 70% (12/17) Likely
80years later 65% (11/17) More likely than not
B1 50years later 70% (12/17) Likely
80years later 65% (11/17) More likely than not
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Heavy rainfall days Heavy rainfall days 3.5
Heavy rainfall days (>50mm/day)
>50mm day >50mm day 2
2.5
3
A1B
0.5
1
1.5
B1
number of model which shows increase
1981‐2000 2046‐2065 2081‐2100
A1B 50years later 90% (9/10) very likely
80years later 80% (8/10) likely
B1 50years later 90% (9/10) very likely
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1.1
Annual rainfall 1 A1B
0.9
1981‐2000 2046‐2065 2081‐2100
B1
number of model which shows increasing rainfall
A1B 50years later 53% (9/17)
B1 50years later 53% (9/17)
80years later 65% (11/17)
(root‐mean‐square deviation)
A1B 50years later 53% (9/17)
80 ears later 47% 8/17
B1 50years later 53% (9/17)
80years later 47% (8/17)
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Dry season Rainy season
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
.
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
.
A1B
0.94
0.96
0.98
1981‐
2000 2046‐
2065 2081‐
2100
0.94
0.96
0.98
1981‐
2000 2046‐
2065 2081‐
2100
number of model which showsdecreasing trend (Dry season)
number of model which showsincreasing trend (Rainy season)
80years later 65% (11/17) 80years later 71% (12/17)
B1 50years later 59% (10/17) B1 50years later 41% (7/17)
80years later 41% (7/17) 80years later 82% (14/17)
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Longest consecutive Longest consecutive Longest consecutive no rainfall
da s
no rainfall daysno rainfall days0.8
1
1.21.4
A1B
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1981‐2000 2046‐2065 2081‐2100
B1
number of model which shows increase
1 50years ater 11 17 ore e y t an not
80years later 65% (11/17) ) More likely than not
B1 50years later 60% (10/17) ) More likely than not
80years later 60% (10/17) ) More likely than not
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EC HAM 5/M PI-O M , Log-norm al Probability Paper (C unnane)
99.9999
99.999
99.99
99.9999
99.999
99.99
99.9999
99.999
99.99
99.9999
99.999
99.99
99.9999
99.999
99.99
99.9999
99.999
99.99
nonexceedance
probability
ProbableProbableR² = 0.958
R² = 0.9775
R² = 0.9685R² = 0.8955
R² = 0.9564
99.9
99
90
70
50
99.9
99
90
70
50
99.9
99
90
70
50
99
90
70
50
99
90
70
50
■20C3M1981‐2000
▲A1b 2046‐2065
◆A1b 2081‐2100
■B1 2046‐2065
●B1 2081‐2100
99
90
70
50
rainfall rainfall
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.01
0.1
1
10
10 100
0.0001
.
0.0001
.
0.0001
.
0.0001
.
0.0001
.
mm/day
0.0001
.
A1BA1B B1B1- - - -
Number of models which show
more severe distribution than
82% 94% 76% 53%
9 /17now
5-year probable rainfall 1.18 1.31 1.14 1.18
- . . . .
100-year probable rainfall 1.20 1.36 1.17 1.18
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Incremental Ratio of
Dail Probable Rainfall 10 ear A1B 50 ears later
from 17 models
IPSL‐CM4
CCSM3CGCM3.1(T63)GFDL
‐
CM2.0
MIROC3.2(hires)
ECHAM5 MPI‐OMCSIRO‐Mk3.0
GFDL‐CM2.1MIROC3.2(medres)
‐
MRI‐CGCM2.3.2GISS‐AOM
ECHO‐G
CSIRO‐Mk3.5INM‐CM3.0
PCM Average=1.2(from 17 models)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
.
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・Area Citarum Upper Basin・Return eriod 10 ears・Climate Current and 50 years later(A1B)
NanjungNanjung
Dayeuh KolotDayeuh Kolot
MajalayaMajalaya
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Future Desi n
es gn y rograpes gn y rograpes gn a n aes gn a n a
Discharge
urren es gn
RainfallRainfall under
Climate Change
(m^3/s)1 1.
Hydrological
Model
Climate Change
Current Climate
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25
30
35
40
45
cibeureum
Citarum Upper Basin
0
5
10
15
20
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
C ur re nt 5 0 yearslater(A1B)0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Citepus
C ur re nt 5 0 yearslater(A1B)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cikapundung
C ur r en t 5 0 years later(A1B)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cipamakolan
C ur re nt 5 0 yearslater(A1B)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cikeruh
C ur re nt 5 0 years later(A1B)
80
100
120
140
Ciwidey
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cidurian
C ur re nt 5 0 years later(A1B)
0
50
100
150
200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Citarik
C ur re nt 5 0 yearslater(A1B)
200
Cisangkuy
Increase! 0
20
40
60
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
C ur re nt 5 0 yearslater(A1B)
0
50
100
150
200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cisangkuy
C ur re nt 5 0 years later(A1B)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cicadas
C ur re nt 5 0 yearslater(A1B)
6070
80
Cirasea50
100
150
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
C ur re nt 5 0 yearslater(A1B)
100
150
200
majalaya‐Citarum Main
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Current 50 years later(A1B)
0
50
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
C ur re nt 5 0 years later(A1B)
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Probable flood (10year)Probable flood (10year)Current ClimateCurrent Climate
Probable flood (10year)Probable flood (10year)50 years later50 years later
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Flood SimulationFlood SimulationOrangeOrange – – Current Design FloodCurrent Design Flood
PurplePurple – – Future Design FloodFuture Design Flood