Alemania líder en energías renovables
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Germany – leading the charge on renewables Hans De Keulenaer October 2015
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Germany – leading the charge on renewables
Hans De Keulenaer October 2015
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Introduction Energy Policy Governance Supply Demand Prices Summary
| Country Profile Germany 2
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Introduction Country snapshot in numbers
Indicator Unit Year of Estimate Value
Land area Thousand sq.km 2014 348.5
Forest area % of land area 2012 31.8
Population Millions 2013 80.6
Population density People per sq.km 2013 231.3
GDP per capita PPP 2011 $ 2013 43,206
TPES/capita Toe/capita 2013 3.81
Industry value-added % of GDP 2013 30.7
Inflation CPI % 2013 1.5
Rents (mineral, oil, coal, gas) % of GDP 2012 0.1
| Country Profile Germany 3 Source: World Bank – World Development Indicators
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Introduction Wind & Solar resources
| Country Profile Germany 4
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Topography
Maximum elevations ~ 2,000 meters in the South
| Country Profile Germany 5
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Introduction International waters
| Country Profile Germany 6
Introduction Resources
| Country Profile Germany 7
Significant coal reserves but used with restraint Minute oil & gas reserves Growing renewable capacity Nuclear initially as a transition technology, phase-out after Fukushima Reserves in Mtoe
Available Renewable Capacity in GW
Source: World Energy Resources – 2013 Survey
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Energy Policy National energy plan
Energy Concept (“Energiewende”) (BMU & BMWi, 28/9/2010)
• Horizon 2050 • Integrated plan with consistent &
ambitious targets for climate, renewables, energy efficiency
• 9 themes: renewables, efficiency, nuclear & fossil, integration, buildings, mobility, innovation, international context, acceptance
• After Fukushima: 6/6/11 Update on Section C “nuclear &
fossil”
| Country Profile Germany 8
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Energy Policy National energy plan - Targets
“Energiewende” (Energy Transition) as overall energy concept • GHG emissions reduction of 40% by 2020 and >80% by 2050 (over 1990)
• Increase of renewable energy (60% of gross energy use by 2050) • Complete exit from nuclear power by 2022
• 50% primary energy consumption reduction by 2050 (over 2008) • 2.1% p.a. improvement in energy productivity • Electricity consumption reduction of 10% by 2020 and 25% by 2050 • 2% annual building renovation rate • 40% reduction in final energy consumption
• Investment of €20 Billion in HV grid development for the next 10 years
• Additional larger investment needed for distribution grid from 27.5 to 42.5 B€
| Country Profile Germany 9
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Energy Policy National energy plan - Highlights
Renewables as the cornerstone Energy efficiency in all sectors (3 themes) Flexible conventional power stations Nuclear as transition technology -> phaseout Exploring a role for CCS Termination of coal subsidies Expansion plan for grid & storage 6 million EV’s by 2030 EU-wide electricity labelling Renewables from North-Africa (Mediterranean Solar Plan) Need for foreign pumped storage
| Country Profile Germany 10
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Energy Policy Renewable Energy
The NREAP for 2050 is part of the energy concept “Energiewende”. • Expected RE share of 19.6% of gross energy consumption by 2020 to exceed EU-
target of 18% • 38.6% RE in electricity • 15.5% RE share in heating cooling • 13.2% share in the transportation sector
• Federal incentives in heating/ cooling include Market Incentive Program (MAP), Renewable Energy Heating Act (EEWärmeG), Cogeneration Act (KWKG), Energy Savings Regulation (EnEV) and funding programs by KfW
• Federal Emission Act (BImSchG), Energy Taxation Act (EnergieStG) and Biofuels Regulations (Biokraft-NachV, BioStNachV, BioKraftQuG) are programs in the transportation sector
• Regional and local incentive programs complement the national plan
| Country Profile Germany 11
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Energy Policy Energy Efficiency
The NEEAP from 2014 defines Germany’s EE target of primary energy consumption reduction of 20% by 2020 and 50% by 2050 (over 2008).
• Focus on final energy consumption savings and energy transformation and distribution efficiency (e.g. via ETS, IED etc.)
• 3 core pillars: • Increase EE in the building sector • Establish EE as business and profitability model
• Increase individual responsibility for EE • 4 main categories of measures to achieve primary energy saving targets:
• Standards & target setting (e.g. EnEV) • Pricing/ taxation (e.g. truck toll, energy tax, emissions trading etc.)
• Investment incentives and programs (e.g. tax exemptions, building renovation financing
• Consulting and labelling programs (e.g. communal energy consulting)
| Country Profile Germany 12
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Energy Policy Electricity
Generation: 4 generators with 78% market share (excl renewables) • HHI = 2021 (reasonable competition)
Transmission: • 4 onshore TSOs (3 certified), 1 offshore TSO (uncertified)
Distribution: >850 DSO’s • 90% not separated into network/retail due to de minimis requirement
(<100,000 customers) EPEX SPOT for day-ahead and intraday, EEX for derivatives market
• 363 traders active Wholesale prices decreasing but retail prices increasing (taxes & levies) 10.4% switching rate – choice among 72 suppliers
| Country Profile Germany 13 Source: Commission – Single market progress report
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Energy Policy Electricity
15.9’ system interruption per year (most reliable in the world) Installed capacity 187 GW (of which 70 GW wind + PV) Peak load capacity 82 GW 8 of 17 nuclear reactors already shutdown; rest by 2022
• Annual adequacy assessment by TSOs
Reserve Power Plant Regulation (ResKV) • Procurement procedure for spare capacity
Increasing congestion in the North-South corridor
| Country Profile Germany 14 Source: ENTSO-E – SO&AF 2014-2030
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Energy Policy Gas
15 gas TSOs 2 markets: NCG and GasPool EGEX exchange Cross-border price > NCG/Gaspool price Trading volumes >> physical exchanges 86% of customers can choose between 31 suppliers
• 10.7% switching rate
| Country Profile Germany 15 Source: Commission – Single market progress report
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Energy Policy Coal
Phase-out of subsidies by 2018 • 20 B€ over the period 2009-2019
One hard-coal producer (RAG), 7.5 Mt in 2013, responsible for phase-out
• Imports from US (26%), Russia (26%), Colombia (18%), Poland (10%), ...
3 lignite producers (RWE, Vattenfall, MIBRAG), 200 Mt, increasing, largest in Europe
| Country Profile Germany 16
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Energy Policy Nuclear
Phase-out announcement (mid 2011): • Progressive abandonment of nuclear • Limiting lifespan of nuclear plants to 32 years • Prohibition to build new nuclear • Prohibition on reprocessing • 10-fold increase in insurance cover
Litigation by nuclear operators Decommissioning fund
| Country Profile Germany 17
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Energy Policy Climate
Successful decoupling of GHG emissions from growth Kyoto target -21% (actual -25% w/o flexibility mechanisms) Energy Concept targets: -40% by 2020, -80+% by 2050 ETS revenues fully used to fight climate change
“Energy & Climate Fund”
| Country Profile Germany 18
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Governance Institutions
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs (BMWi) Länder Ministries of Economy Conference of Ministers of Economy BMUB - climate BMEL – biomass BMF – taxation Bundesnetzagentur: Electricity, Gas, Telecom, Post, Railways Dena: national energy agency
| Country Profile Germany 19
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Governance Actors
Electricity Gas # of companies representing >95% of power generation
>850 #of entities bringing natural gas into country
38
# of main entities 4 # of main entities 3 # retailers > 1,000 # of retailers 851 # main retailers 4 # of main retailers 3 HHI power 2021 HHI supply 1886 HHI retail n/a HHI retail 300 Market value (B€) 74.9 Market value (B€) 27.5 Installer capacity (GW) 171.7 Peak load (GW) 81.9 +200 DH companies, operating 500
networks | Country Profile Germany 20
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Summary Simplified Energy Balance
| Country Profile Germany 21
ktoe 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013
Primary Production 125261.5 174692.3 185624.9 186108.3 135170.1 129278.9 122896.3 123380.4 119715.7
Imports 39938.01 165438.7 213749.9 189137.4 236032.9 247502.3 239979.7 240564.3 245947.8
Exports -23512.2 -30817.5 -30369.1 -21863.3 -30375.1 -43001.8 -40313.9 -41007.4 -43318.9
Bunkers -431.356 -2322.39 -2773 -4502.53 -6578.17 -8092.03 -7809.59 -8313.87 -8182.41
Stock changes 3270.811 -1107.85 -5555.1 4694.918 4330.85 4527.65 -1133.82 419.285 511.236
Total Primary Energy Supply 142177.5 301801.1 357175.7 351094.5 336400.8 327463.7 310921.5 312525.1 312391.6
Available for final consumption 98459.93 218167.2 248663 240723.3 231252.4 229600.1 218845.9 220982.3 ..
Industry 44630.65 80622.01 78831.29 66164.38 51333.81 55296.66 55965.13 55685.28 ..
Transport 16057.08 31599.13 44199.61 54399.18 59369.66 53119.56 53571.01 53169.9 ..
Services 25912.41 57749.12 54873.96 62964.14 65112.47 63128.88 54917.4 57414.04 ..
Residential 1730.162 25918.37 28492.07 28978.85 25733.35 35305.94 31863.95 32742.15 ..
Agriculture 882.508 2084.708 3010.683 2422.16 289.911 0 0 0 ..
Non-energy uses 2624.39 14142.22 22962.71 22946.4 25067.58 22570.54 22366.14 21813.18 ..
Efficiency of transformation 69.3% 72.3% 69.6% 68.6% 68.7% 70.1% 70.4% 70.7%
Energy independence 88.1% 57.9% 52.0% 53.0% 40.2% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5% 38.3%
Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
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Summary Extended Energy Balance
ktoe Solids Oil Gas Electricity Biofuels & waste Heat Total
Primary Production 47,596 3,373 9,566 35,035 27,810 0 123,380
Imports 33,285 128,049 74,067 3,979 1,184 0 240,564
Exports -1,167 -18,813 -14,258 -5,746 -1,018 -6 -41,007
Bunkers 0 -8,314 0 0 0 0 -8,314
Stock changes 438 -443 424 0 0 0 419
Gross inland consumption (TPES) 80,152 101,336 69,799 33,268 27,976 -6 312,525
Available for consumption 7,234 91,735 52,385 45,861 13,413 10,355 220,982
Industry 6,021 3,248 19,068 19,457 2,829 5,063 55,685
Transport 0 48,677 516 1,039 2,938 0 53,170
Services 743 12,944 21,613 12,343 6,396 3,375 57,414
Residential 103 7,317 9,133 13,023 1,250 1,916 32,742
Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Non-energy uses 366 19,391 2,056 0 0 0 21,813
| Country Profile Germany 22 Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
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Supply Overview
| Country Profile Germany 23 Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
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Supply Total Primary Energy Supply
| Country Profile Germany 24 Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
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Supply Electricity
| Country Profile Germany 25 Source: ENERDATA – Global Energy & CO2 Data
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Supply Electricity
| Country Profile Germany 26 Source: ENERDATA – Global Energy & CO2 Data
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Supply Interconnectors
7% interconnection rate with 6 countries (Cz, DK, F, NL, Pl, CH) • Plan for interconnects with B (Alegro – 1 GW) and Russia (600 MW)
Net exporter, increasingly Transmission expansion slower than planned TSO investment in 2012: 1.15 B€ (+36%) Electricity Grid Expansion Act: 1,877 km planned (EnLAG) 20 PCIs in Germany
| Country Profile Germany 27
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Supply Gas
5 domestic producers (15% of demand) Declining production, increasing imports
• 45% Russia, 26.5% NL, 29% Norway
NordStream pipeline with Russia: 55 BCm/yr (50+% of demand) Exports to Cz, Fr, NL, CH Storage: 22 BCm (~25% of annual demand) Heart of European gas trade with robust supply
| Country Profile Germany 28
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Supply Oil
95% imports • 35% Russia, 12% Norway, 10% UK, 16% OPEC
13 refineries – large importer of refined products
| Country Profile Germany 29
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Demand Overview
| Country Profile Germany 30 Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
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Industry
| Country Profile Germany 31 Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
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Transport
| Country Profile Germany 32 Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
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Services
| Country Profile Germany 33 Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
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Residential
| Country Profile Germany 34 Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
Energy and tax bill for the world’s largest countries
Notes: - : non relevant
Prices Final energy bill in Germany in 2014
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Oil: 47% of taxes in end-consumer prices o 53% of taxes for the transport sector (49% for diesel and 58% for gasoline) o 7% for industry and 22% for households and services
Electricity: 50% o 48% of taxes for industry and 52% for households and services
Gas: 20% o 11% of taxes for industry and 24% for households and services
Renewable electricity fees: EEG Umlage o €6,24c/kWh in 2014 (€6,17c/kWh in 2015)
Energy and tax bill for the world’s largest countries
Prices Energy taxes in Germany in 2014
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Prices Electricity prices w.r.t. neighbours
| Country Profile Germany 37
Constant price in US$cents05 of electricity in industry (taxes incl.)
Unit 1980 2013 2014 Unit 1980 2013 2014
Belgium USc05/kWh 11.1 10.1 9.9 Z-score 0.1 0.3 0.1
France USc05/kWh 11.5 10.0 9.9 Z-score 0.2 0.3 0.1
Germany USc05/kWh 11.5 13.9 14.8 Z-score 0.2 1.2 1.2
Italy USc05/kWh 14.6 25.6 25.9 Z-score 0.8 4.0 3.8
Poland USc05/kWh n.a. 8.5 7.8 Z-score n.a 0.0 -0.4
Switzerland USc05/kWh 13.4 9.5 9.5 Z-score 0.6 0.2 0.0
Source: ENERDATA – Global Energy & CO2 Data
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Prices Gas prices w.r.t. neighbours
| Country Profile Germany 38 Source: ENERDATA – Global Energy & CO2 Data
Constant price in US$05 of natural gas in industry (taxes incl.) GCV
Unit 1980 2013 2014 Unit 1980 2013 2014
Belgium USc05/kWh 2.5 3.9 3.3 Z-score -0.4 0.1 -0.2
France USc05/kWh 2.9 4.3 4.1 Z-score -0.3 0.4 0.3
Germany USc05/kWh 2.7 4.1 3.8 Z-score -0.3 0.2 0.2
Italy USc05/kWh 3.3 4.2 4.0 Z-score -0.1 0.3 0.3
Poland USc05/kWh 1.4 3.3 3.3 Z-score -0.7 -0.2 -0.1
Switzerland USc05/kWh 5.0 5.2 5.2 Z-score 0.4 0.8 1.0
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Indicators Security
| Country Profile Germany 39
Indicator Unit 1970 2000 2013 Oil self-sufficiency % 6 3 3 Coal self-sufficiency % 103 71 58 Gas self-sufficiency % 77 22 12 Total self-sufficiency % 58 40 38 RES share in TPES % 1 3 11 RES share in electricity % 7 6 24 TPES/GDP toe/ 2005 $ PPP 0.25 0.14 0.11 TPES/capita toe/capita 3.88 4.09 3.81
Source: IEA Energy Indicators for OECD Countries
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Indicators Environment
| Country Profile Germany 40
Indicator Unit 1970 2000 2013 CO2 per capita Tons - 9.1 - CO2 per unit GDP kg per PPP 2011 GDP - 0.22 - Network losses % 4.5 Access to electricity % 100 100 100
Source: IEA Energy Indicators for OECD Countries
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Summary Technology
Research initiatives of the federal ministry: • Power grids of the future
• Solar building construction
• Energy-efficient cities
Top 5 energy related areas for funding and research: • Wind power
• Photovoltaics
• Deep geothermal (esp. for district heating)
• Solar-thermal power plants
• Hydro and maritime power generation
| Country Profile Germany 41
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Summary A few specifics
Leading in overall energy efficiency according to ACEEE scorecard • International market leader and innovation driver in the fields of energy
efficiency and green buildings
Building energy efficiency supported by strong building codes and EE targets Strong position in passive house technology and related products
• Certification for passive house trades people
| Country Profile Germany 42
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Summary Specifics
Highest wind power generation capacity growth among European countries
• More than doubled offshore wind capacity on 2014
New CCS technology tested with large scale demonstration in 2015 • Increase oxygen stability and 20% input energy reduction by use of new
solvent technology
• 90% CO2 capture rate from coal-fired power plants
Strong position in e-mobility based on German automotive industry (e-vehicles, hybrids)
• Tax incentives on electric vehicles and development of related infrastructure
| Country Profile Germany 43
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Summary Issues
Stabilization of electricity prices to support transition to renewables • Currently, lowest wholesale prices but highest retail prices in Europe
• However, due to lower consumption, residential electricity bill similar to US
Fast and cost-effective approach to grid extension essential to integrate renewable energy production
• Increasing wind power generation in Northern Germany requires improved transmission infrastructure
• Decentralised PV & biomass production also requires LV grid expansion
Leading the market of energy storage • Driven by economics
• Not needed for balancing until after 2030
| Country Profile Germany 44
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Summary Issues
Shutdown of all nuclear power plants and complete exit from nuclear energy by 2022 Proposed strict regulation for fracking and shale-gas-related activities to protect water resources and environment
• Restrictions by region and type of environment/ bedrock
• Additional restriction for general oil & gas drilling
Hard coal subsidies to run out by 2018 on both federal and “Länder” level
• Clear definition of future role of gas and coal in energy mix required to achieve CO2 emission targets
| Country Profile Germany 45
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Conclusions
A large & diversified energy system with strong interconnections (with the exception of oil) Highest electricity Quality of Supply in the world (based on SAIDI) An example how to transit to a sustainable energy with limited indigenous resources (but path forward is uncertain) Leading the charge on renewables (up to now) A lesson on learning curves and getting support schemes right Is the current retail price structure (incl taxes) sustainable? Moderate liberalization in generation, advanced in market Over 1,000 grid operators; lots of small-scale community initiatives HV grid expansion difficult, even in a progressive country Energy transition requires ambitious implementation of EU Policy complemented with additional policies Role of lignite, coal and gas in Energiewende needs clarification
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Country Comparison on Energy use from 1960 to 2012 (ktoe)
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Sources
Macroeconomic indicators: http://databank.worldbank.org Energy Balances: Eurostat, IEA, Enerdata Energy Prices: Eurostat, Enerdata Country Report, Global Energy Research (Enerdata) Country Report, www.reegle.info European Commission: Progress towards completing the IEM ENTSO-E: TYNDP ENTSO-E: Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast NREAP Germany NEEAP Germany World Energy Council: World Energy Resources 2013 Survey IEA Energy Policies of IEA Countries Germany 2013 Review
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Glossary
CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CPI Consumer Price Index ETS Emission Trading System EV Electric Vehicle GHG Greenhouse Gas HHI Herfindahl-Hirschman Index HV High Voltage NEEAP National Energy Efficiency Action Plan NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan PCI Project of Common Interest TOE Ton of Oil Equivalent TPES Total Primary Energy Supply TSO Transmission System Operator
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Acknowledgement
Thank you to our reviewers Arne Jungjohann, http://arnejungjohann.de/ Baktash Nasiri, Research associate/PhD student at TU Dortmund NN reviewers from the financial sector, from the utility sector and from industry
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Annex – Transposition of EU Policy in Germany
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Energy Policy Transposition of EU Policy
RED – implemented in Germany via EEG (Enerneuerbare Energien Gesetz 2009, renewed 2012 and August 1st, 2014)
• EEG 2014 sets 3 main principles to boost wind and solar energy: • Investment protection through guaranteed feed-in tariffs and
connection requirement • No additional cost to Germany’s public budget • Innovation by decreasing feed-in-tariffs
• Target renewable energy share 18% (of total energy consumption) by 2020
• 30% of electricity consumption from renewable energy • 14% of heating energy from renewable energy
• Additional national regulations include Biomass regulation (BiomasseV) and Biomass-electricity-sustainability regulation (Bio-St-NachV)
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Energy Policy Transposition of EU Policy
EED – mostly implemented in Germany • Article 7 as core of EED: Germany committed to cumulated savings of 1,758
Petajoule (PJ) until 2020
• Implemented energy efficiency measures have contributed 1,476 PJ • Creation of dedicated institution (Bundesstelle für Energieeffizienz – BfEE) to
ensure EED target implementation
• NEEAP 2014 as basis for fulfilment of EED requirements and targets In Germany
• Recent transposition activities include
• Energiedienstleistungsgesetz (EDL-G) modified to accommodate Article 8 of EED (energy audits)
• KWK-Kosten-Nutzen-Vergleich-Verordnung (KNV-V) to implement Article 14 of EED
• Introduction of additional voluntary “market-oriented incentive system" (MEAS)
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Energy Policy Transposition of EU Policy
EPBD • Energy Savings Act (EnEG) 2013 creates the legal basis for further regulations (e.g.
EnEV) • Heat insulation/ reduction of energy loss • Prescribes effective use of energy for heating and cooling during planning
phase • Energy Savings Regulation (EnEV) exists since 2009 with latest update in
November 2013 to implement EPBD • Applies to all new and existing buildings that require energy for heating or
cooling • “Energy passports” for “overall efficiency of buildings” – “lowest energy
building” standard as of 2021 for all new buildings • Renewable Energies Heat Act (EEWärmeG)
• Addresses requirements on renewable energy in the heating sector
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Energy Policy Transposition of EU Policy
Internal electricity and gas markets • German Energy Act (Energiewirtschaftsgesetz) (EnWG) as the main
federal legal framework for all energy market related regulations and acts • Liberalization and deregulation as key objectives • Ongoing efforts to remove contractual bureaucracy and provide
marketing options for energy from renewable sources • Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (Netzausbaubeschleunigungs-Gesetz)
(NABEG) • Regulates the expansion of cross-border HV power line construction
with focus on expedited planning and permits • Federal Requirements Plan Act (Bundesbedarfsplangesetz) (BBPIG)
• Proposes HV transmission infrastructure projects in addition to projects already defined in the Power Grid Extension Act (EnLAG)
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Energy Policy Transposition of EU Policy
IED – German official implementation on May 2nd, 2013 via • Bundes-Immissionsschutzgesetz (BImSchG)
• Wasserhaushaltsgesetz (WHG)
• Kreislaufwirtschaftsgesetz (KrWG)
• Gesetz über die Umweltverträglichkeitsprüfung (UVPG)
• Various sections of the Bundes-Immissionsschutzverordnung (BImSchV) • 4. BImSchV - regulation on industrial facilities requiring permits • 9. BImSchV – regulation on permission processing • Several sections relating to specific industrial installations (e.g. fuels,
halogenated compounds, volatile compounds etc.) • Industrial facilities to use “BVT” (best available technology)
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Energy Policy Transposition of EU Policy
ETS • Treibhausgas-Emissionshandels-Gesetz (TEHG) 2011 as national basis
for participation in European emissions trading
• 3rd trading period (2013-2020) is implemented via Allocation Regulation 2020 (ZuV 2020) without National Allocation Plan
• Regulates calculation of allocation and application within TEHG • EHV 2020 (Emissions-Handels-Verordnung) – Emission Trading
Regulation for liquid biofuels
• ProMechG (Projekt-Mechanismen-Gesetz) – Project Mechanism Act implelements the Linking Directive creating the legal basis for CDM and JI-projects
• ProMechGebV (Projekt-Mechanismen-Gebührenverordnung) – Project Mechanism Fee Regulation
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